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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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23 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Meteorologist Hunter Ward saying the storm Friday and Saturday will be in two phases with the second phase coming out of the Gulf, very slow, longer duration storm that may drop a foot of snow in WNC.  No warm nose with this storm.

Feb 2014 was 2 phases That Monday or Tuesday Southern and Eastern NC as well as Down towards Columbia scored 2-4” event CLT uptown had 1-2” I believe then the big dog came that Weds  

93789F7E-95F8-4995-A482-D52F05B35AE4.gif

C2D6FD4E-DFAD-4E01-9A2A-FB038AFBBBC0.gif

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6 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Feb 2014 was 2 phases That Monday or Tuesday Southern and Eastern NC as well as Down towards Columbia scored 2-4” event CLT uptown had 1-2” I believe then the big dog came that Weds  

93789F7E-95F8-4995-A482-D52F05B35AE4.gif

C2D6FD4E-DFAD-4E01-9A2A-FB038AFBBBC0.gif

Lived in Union County at the time.  Last good snowfall of more than 1-2 inches i've seen in person.  Would love those totals in Durham again this weekend.

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NAM looks better. 

I'm used to our set-ups going through a slow degradation as we go through the week. But I gotta say the speed at which we went front praying for a more amplified pattern to looking like a zr event for a lot of us really took me aback. 

I think that the main culprit is the northern shortwave.. see below for 12 run GFS trend. 3 days ago, that shortwave was diving into the Dakotas with a little oil and vinegar... there's been noise but you'll notice it's gotten weaker and is diving further east. Our current version doesn't dig as far, which is a lose-lose. Not only does it struggle to pop the coastal, but because it is weaker and more retreated into the polar trough, the cold press is weaker, and I think has really allowed for warmer mid levels to sneak back into the picture.

979924115_gfs_z500_vort_us_fh78_trend(2).thumb.gif.5e3b0c5d635e123a3bb319bb2ac56e97.gif

I don't think over amplification is the key culprit. Sure, looks like it on the Euro, but that's the risk in playing with southern energy as the Euro currently depicts. A stronger northern shortwave in that case would bring a stronger cold press and would likely be able to throw cold water on the southern shortwave's idea of going up the coast. 

The NAM had an encouraging jolt westward with our energy. It may be a little late, I think "go time" is sooner than most people realize, but I think there's still some wiggle room to trend to some more positive solutions. 

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4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

NAM looks better. 

I'm used to our set-ups going through a slow degradation as we go through the week. But I gotta say the speed at which we went front praying for a more amplified pattern to looking like a zr event for a lot of us really took me aback. 

I think that the main culprit is the northern shortwave.. see below for 12 run GFS trend. 3 days ago, that shortwave was diving into the Dakotas with a little oil and vinegar... there's been noise but you'll notice it's gotten weaker and is diving further east. Our current version doesn't dig as far, which is a lose-lose. Not only does it struggle to pop the coastal, but because it is weaker and more retreated into the polar trough, the cold press is weaker, and I think has really allowed for warmer mid levels to sneak back into the picture.

979924115_gfs_z500_vort_us_fh78_trend(2).thumb.gif.5e3b0c5d635e123a3bb319bb2ac56e97.gif

I don't think over amplification is the key culprit. Sure, looks like it on the Euro, but that's the risk in playing with southern energy as the Euro currently depicts. A stronger northern shortwave in that case would bring a stronger cold press and would likely be able to throw cold water on the southern shortwave's idea of going up the coast. 

The NAM had an encouraging jolt westward with our energy. It may be a little late, I think "go time" is sooner than most people realize, but I think there's still some wiggle room to trend to some more positive solutions. 

Thank you for the disco! Super helpful for us map readers!!

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS looks to be trending towards the Euro

I was just about to say that the MA forum was dancing because the 18Z was definitely going in the Euro direction, so I assumed that we would be sad, but some surprisingly positive developments inthe NS.

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The GFS push and overall air mass is markedly warmer across the Gulf/SE than the Euro too...the Euro at 90 has a massive supply of cold air back into the TN Valley whereas the GFS scenario if you amp the wave more many areas in the E Gulf Coast would see rain.  Its odd seeing the GFS be the less cold model or at least have a less cold high pressure dome

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