Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Nice bump up on the Sref plumes ( 21z)for THV and HGR . Always a good sign when the word plumes comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Not kidding. Sref mean pushed the 6" line north but the 2 " line sagged . Tightening the gradient verbatim fwiw Neither was I. They can be VERY misleading though. But if true, its a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Time to channel our Al Michaels from Lake Placid in 1980 - "Do you believe in miracles..." (For those who are lost...Al Michaels famous call of the final seconds of Team USA upsetting the mighty Soviet hockey team in the Winter Olympics) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Time to channel our Al Michaels from Lake Placid in 1980 - "Do you believe in miracles..." (For those who are lost...Al Michaels famous call of the final seconds of Team USA upsetting the mighty Soviet hockey team in the Winter Olympics) Dave Christian Et al :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Probably a 30 to 50 mile north shift from 18z overall fwiw. It's getting close to the Va line. Off Va Beach would definitely get us pretty good . Hopefully this storm isn't done surprising . Nice. A little means a lot for many in the southern tier. Keep willin this thing north man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Just for fun ( not a forecast ) Hanover area plumes ( 6.5") I just looked at those and even ABE is just a shade under 5" on the 21z. That can't be right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18z Euro ensemble >3” probs for the 1/7 storm. >1+ was more than 50% for pretty much our whole subforum. Still shows a bit of a focus toward the northwestern half of the state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not kidding. Sref mean pushed the 6" line north but the 2 " line sagged . Tightening the gradient verbatim fwiw Did some one say 21z SREF for the win… Everyone say your snow prayers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I’m in until the NAM run. Then I’ll probably be out again! Seriously though it’s been fun to track at least. Happy for the DC and south crew, it’s been awhile for them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Going from nothing straight to a warning is the best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 0z NAM starting… gonna be the most important model run of our lives coming haha. I need to nail down how thick the cirrus deck is gonna be here tomorrow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said: I’m in until the NAM run. Then I’ll probably be out again! Seriously though it’s been fun to track at least. Happy for the DC and south crew, it’s been awhile for them. It's almost more fun to track one that is so close but a no....with the chance to change it to a yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, MAG5035 said: 0z NAM starting… gonna be the most important model run of our lives coming haha. I need to nail down how thick the cirrus deck is gonna be here tomorrow. Most important of the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It's almost more fun to track one that is so close but a no....with the chance to change it to a yes. Nah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: 0z NAM starting… gonna be the most important model run of our lives coming haha. I need to nail down how thick the cirrus deck is gonna be here tomorrow. I’m working on my Virga deck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Nah SREF or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Nam is not going to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: SREF or bust! Go with the model that shows the most snow is somewhere in my handbook… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: SREF or bust! That is pretty much right. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Nam is not going to do it. Emphatically...no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 39/33 here. 22 degree temp drop since 3:45pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam is not going to do it. Nam never liked this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Emphatically...no. Nam continues showing lots of sleet soundings where others show snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Nam never liked this one Nam did make a notable jump North with the shield once it rounds out in response to the strengthening low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 We’re out of time but the NAM did bump north vs. 18Z but it was pretty far south to begin with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam continues showing lots of sleet soundings where others show snow. NAM often struggles with thermals. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: NAM often struggles with thermals. True, but man it was a devil to the MA last year. Killed snow storm after snow storm. Ironically the NAM is almost always too cool in our neck of the woods these days (2M). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 0Z NAM tonight vs 24 hours earlier...tonight on top. Main difference is farther east (and higher totals in MA.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Fv3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 It is kinda brutal to watch this evolve. The surface low goes from GA through the interior Carolinas to near VA Beach which is often workable for a good portion of the subforum. It’s a great shortwave but a tight system and there’s not enough amp in the pattern to bring it up the coast some or northern branch interaction digging into it to draw a much broader precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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