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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2022


IrishRob17
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30 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Crappy patterns make me feel warm and fuzzy inside. Everyone shares equally in the misery and there are no winners and losers. Take a storm like Boxing Day, and 6 out of 10 people are disappointed, but their commiseration is smothered by the rejoicing of the other 4. *Our* suffering, comrade. 

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Think we have a chance to see several inches snow accumulation for the I84 corridor, esp elevations later Sunday-early Monday (12/11-12). My read for snow opportunities 12/4-10 was bogus (posted Nov 26). 

00z/7 GFS/EC and GGEM seems to want to snow 5 days from now.  5H trough currently in eastern Pacific,  so it's a long ways off and not the usual path... (coming in over the the top of the ridge and digging sewd).  It's a chance but has a bit of same cycle model agreement and some consecutive 12 hr cycle consistency. At least it's hope.  Not posting on the main thread since for now, this accumulative snow risk seems more likely for somewhere over the interior higher terrain of PA/NJ/NYS/CT.  Again D5-6, so it may fail. 

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5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Think we have a chance to see several inches snow accumulation for the I84 corridor, esp elevations later Sunday-early Monday (12/11-12). My read for snow opportunities 12/4-10 was bogus (posted Nov 26). 

00z/7 GFS/EC and GGEM seems to want to snow 5 days from now.  5H trough currently in eastern Pacific,  so it's a long ways off and not the usual path... (coming in over the the top of the ridge and digging sewd).  It's a chance but has a bit of same cycle model agreement and some consecutive 12 hr cycle consistency. At least it's hope.  Not posting on the main thread since for now, this accumulative snow risk seems more likely for somewhere over the interior higher terrain of PA/NJ/NYS/CT.  Again D5-6, so it may fail. 

The 06z GFS run is showing a little more from the 00z run.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Hitman said:

This weather blows.  I think this weekend I get out the sticks and do a snow dance to change the juju.  I know its early, but I am antsy and it's ugly.

 

1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

Look on the bright side... it won't be this warm again until 12/25 

Good afternoon all. Hitman inspired me to look it up and I found the seven rituals that need to be performed when one desires a snow or school snow day, as follows:

 I. Wear inside-out backward PJ’s.

2. Place a spoon under the pillow.

3. Do a Snow Dance.

4. Place a white crayon in the freezer.

5. Place ice cubes on the porch.

6.  Flush ice cubes down the toilet.

7.  Run around the dining table five times before bed.

if the dance fails, at least you have six other options. Their results can’t be any worse than the long range models. Stay well all, as always ….

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6 hours ago, rclab said:

 

Good afternoon all. Hitman inspired me to look it up and I found the seven rituals that need to be performed when one desires a snow or school snow day, as follows:

 I. Wear inside-out backward PJ’s.

2. Place a spoon under the pillow.

3. Do a Snow Dance.

4. Place a white crayon in the freezer.

5. Place ice cubes on the porch.

6.  Flush ice cubes down the toilet.

7.  Run around the dining table five times before bed.

if the dance fails, at least you have six other options. Their results can’t be any worse than the long range models. Stay well all, as always ….

Thanks.

have problems with 4 and 7.  Don’t have a white crayon nor a dining room table at the moment (renovation in progress).  I’m partial to a little voodoo doll action.

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On 12/7/2022 at 2:00 AM, wdrag said:

Think we have a chance to see several inches snow accumulation for the I84 corridor, esp elevations later Sunday-early Monday (12/11-12). My read for snow opportunities 12/4-10 was bogus (posted Nov 26). 

00z/7 GFS/EC and GGEM seems to want to snow 5 days from now.  5H trough currently in eastern Pacific,  so it's a long ways off and not the usual path... (coming in over the the top of the ridge and digging sewd).  It's a chance but has a bit of same cycle model agreement and some consecutive 12 hr cycle consistency. At least it's hope.  Not posting on the main thread since for now, this accumulative snow risk seems more likely for somewhere over the interior higher terrain of PA/NJ/NYS/CT.  Again D5-6, so it may fail. 

Followup on 2A/7 post...my interpretation of the guidance-impacts through the 06z/8 model suite. Two systems discussed below.  Not sure why there is so much chatter on the main thread as I see this as I84 corridor inclusive of nw NJ and north two thirds CT to Sturbridge-east central MA.

Good Thursday morning everyone, It is December 8th 

Two "potential" hazardous wintry weather events are worthy of monitoring for the I-84 corridor-Adirondacks between Sunday the 11th and Friday the 16th. Possible impacts will be detailed in future days just northwest of I-95 across PA-NJ-NYS-CT-MA (interior sections of these states away from the coast).

Sunday (11th) into predawn Monday morning (12th): A snow event of several inches potential exists, with best chance for 3+" of accumulation in the high terrain of the Poconos-nw NJ-Catskills. It should be slippery at times on all untreated surfaces, especially from sundown Sunday through the night. The edges of this swath could shift and almost nothing could occur in Bostons and Philadelphias west-northwest suburbs. 

It probably starts in spurts Sunday between 7AM-Noon and manageable until sundown Sunday when a period of steady- moderate snow should occur. Modeled amounts vary so lets focus on the typical 1-4" with possible pockets of a little more. Just far too early. I've added two maps...one is the NWS ensemble chance of 3+" which is not a strong threat-please look at the color coded probabilities. The second map is a single member idea of POSSIBLE heavier accumulations--again just an idea from a US model (GFS), which also sort of mirrors the Canadian. The Euro model has been variable, our most recent version from this past evening is weaker than the other models so lets not plan on school closings etc. Instead it's your typical be careful when driving later Sunday-Sunday night. Hartford and Boston you're on the edge of possibly very little. 

A larger storm system is outlooked for Wednesday (14)-Thursday (15) of next week. For now it looks more like ice to rain - focused same area as this coming Sunday, ending as a period of snow or flurries. 

 

Maps are th early morning NWS ensemble prob of >3" snow, and the 06z/8 GFS snow depth change.  GFS may be a bit heavy but Canadian supports, EC a bit less so.

 

 

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Variability on the south edge... It seems to be coming for a significant portion of the I84 corridor,  plus the Wed-Thu looks messy as well I84 itself northwestward.  Now is the time to monitor NAM and RGEM trends.  Most of significant snow 4P-4A Sunday into Monday. 

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Good Friday morning everyone, Dec 9. Multiple potential winter impacts ahead through at least Christmas. Posting only the solid events for now, which is usually within 1 week. There will be errors so please also review your other weather info resources.

This first one Sunday ending early Monday is manageable with probable melting on pavement during the day. Snow should accumulate on non-treated pavement at night, and if it happens to clear near sunrise Monday, leftover moisture would refreeze. This latter possibility of sunrise Monday clearing is only low chance. No matter, melting resumes during the day Monday after this event has departed. That tells us the southern edge of this event is with marginal temps from Easton PA (I78-I80) into Warren County NJ and may be mixed with rain. However, it's all snow along and north of I-84 including Mt Cobb and High Point. Attempted details follow with the understanding that model solutions differ. Trying to keep this simple.

ne PA-nw NJ:  Snow begins between 7A-1P Sunday and ends by sunrise Monday as flurries. Expect 1 to possibly as much as 4" as the high end amounts, except Trace to 1" Easton PA up into far southern Sussex County NJ.

The northern parts of Sussex County (Wantage-Vernon-High Point) as well as Poconos has a pretty good chance of 2-3" on grass roofs etc, but less on pavement.

Hartford-Ashford CT-Monson MA-Old Forge NY you begin Noon-4P Sunday with a solid 1-3" expected before it quits as flurries sunrise Monday. Could be some 4" amounts in high terrain of nw CT and the southern Adirondacks. 

Three maps will detail ensemble chances of 1 and 4" snowfall (Click the map and use the legend for your area of concern). I also added a map from one model that might be a tad cold and an inch or so high but also outlines a reasonable risk area of the amounts on the map (the consistent NAM model from 1AM this morning).

Middle of next week (Wednrsday-Friday). A large potentially higher impact winter storm is coming for the interior just northwest of I95 from VA up through to Canada. My thinking is ice but it could end up snow-ice to rain ending as a period of snow.  Will attempt details next Monday morning (12th).

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I think it will be hard to 6"..qpf probably under 0.35".  I very strongly recommend positive snow depth change for snow maps as a  starter base. 

 

Need to see the NAM from 12z/9 onward stay as strong as it was on prior runs. I could see it less and less.

Am gone til tomorrow morning.

 

Walt

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Good Saturday morning everyone, Dec 10. Multiple winter impacts likely between tomorrow and Christmas.

Sunday ending early Monday: am getting the snow blower ready (Wantage) just in case, along and north of i-84. Periods of snow will accumulate on all non-treated pavement especially Sunday night. Some melting occurs during midday Monday. The southern edge of this event is with marginal temps from Easton PA (I78-just south of I-80) into southern Warren County NJ and may be mixed with rain. However, am pretty sure it's all snow along and north of I-80. Plan for a bit of manageable slippery travel Sunday afternoon and night in the I84 corrdior to Old Forge NY. 

Snow amounts listed below are on grass/decks/roofs. Less on pavement everywhere with melting during the day. Snow intensity varies: briefly moderate at times.

ne PA-nw NJ: Snow begins between 7A-1P Sunday (prelim burst of flurries is possible at 5am) Snow ends between 5A and 11A Monday. Expect 2 to 4" in the Poconos and 2-5" Sussex County with isolated 6 or 7" possible near Vernon-Highland Lakes. Overall heaviest northern part of Sussex County. Suspect plowing will be needed in some of this area Sunday night. 

Easton PA up into Great Meadows of Warren County NJ expect a coating to 1.5". 

Hartford-Ashford CT-Monson MA-Old Forge NY you begin Noon-4P Sunday with a solid 2-4" expected before it quits as flurries sunrise Monday. Could see some 5-6" amounts in the high terrain of nw CT and the southern Adirondacks-south of Old Forge. Plowing will be needed in parts of CT and western MA.

Boston: you may see some snow showers later today or tonight and you're on the edge for 1/2 to 2" between 6P Sunday-6A Monday.

One conservative ensemble map this morning shows the best chance for 1"+...you can see the probabilities have increased since yesterday. In the orange area of NYS is the best chance for 6-7" amounts.   NWS amounts are less far Northwest NJ and should be considered as a posdsible but fit.  I may have gone off the deep end in ne Sussex County NJ where the inverted trough interacts with elevation chill to permit some decent snowfall rates early Monday??

Middle of next week (Wednrsday-Friday). A large potentially higher impact winter storm is coming for the interior northeast USA ust northwest of I95 from VA up through to Canada. Model thinking is a bit colder today and so snow-ice looks predominant over the interior. There might even be snow along the coast. Ensembles still favor a closer track to the coast as proposed yesterday. 

 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good Saturday morning everyone, Dec 10. Multiple winter impacts likely between tomorrow and Christmas.

Sunday ending early Monday: am getting the snow blower ready (Wantage) just in case, along and north of i-84. Periods of snow will accumulate on all non-treated pavement especially Sunday night. Some melting occurs during midday Monday. The southern edge of this event is with marginal temps from Easton PA (I78-just south of I-80) into southern Warren County NJ and may be mixed with rain. However, am pretty sure it's all snow along and north of I-80. Plan for a bit of manageable slippery travel Sunday afternoon and night in the I84 corrdior to Old Forge NY. 

Snow amounts listed below are on grass/decks/roofs. Less on pavement everywhere with melting during the day. Snow intensity varies: briefly moderate at times.

ne PA-nw NJ: Snow begins between 7A-1P Sunday (prelim burst of flurries is possible at 5am) Snow ends between 5A and 11A Monday. Expect 2 to 4" in the Poconos and 2-5" Sussex County with isolated 6 or 7" possible near Vernon-Highland Lakes. Overall heaviest northern part of Sussex County. Suspect plowing will be needed in some of this area Sunday night. 

Easton PA up into Great Meadows of Warren County NJ expect a coating to 1.5". 

Hartford-Ashford CT-Monson MA-Old Forge NY you begin Noon-4P Sunday with a solid 2-4" expected before it quits as flurries sunrise Monday. Could see some 5-6" amounts in the high terrain of nw CT and the southern Adirondacks-south of Old Forge. Plowing will be needed in parts of CT and western MA.

Boston: you may see some snow showers later today or tonight and you're on the edge for 1/2 to 2" between 6P Sunday-6A Monday.

One conservative ensemble map this morning shows the best chance for 1"+...you can see the probabilities have increased since yesterday. In the orange area of NYS is the best chance for 6-7" amounts.   NWS amounts are less far Northwest NJ and should be considered as a posdsible but fit.  I may have gone off the deep end in ne Sussex County NJ where the inverted trough interacts with elevation chill to permit some decent snowfall rates early Monday??

Middle of next week (Wednrsday-Friday). A large potentially higher impact winter storm is coming for the interior northeast USA ust northwest of I95 from VA up through to Canada. Model thinking is a bit colder today and so snow-ice looks predominant over the interior. There might even be snow along the coast. Ensembles still favor a closer track to the coast as proposed yesterday. 

 

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Thanks, Walt.

shouldn’t there be a thread for the late week system?

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16 minutes ago, Hitman said:

Thanks, Walt.

shouldn’t there be a thread for the late week system?

I don't start threads anymore... I felt it was not in the best interest of some of the participants and also I start threads at certain times, when I sense the event will work.  I felt a little pressured by reactions and so I prefer not to rush too much.  Anyway, the main thread is where everyone seems to be discussing. So far. 

Yes, I think Wed-Fri deserves a thread on a potential large scale mixed bag winter storm that will impact millions adversely in one form or another (from airport delays-cancels) to event cancellations, inclusive of possible of all the following:65 MPH wind gusts, heavy snow-ice-rain, coastal flooding, power outages. BUT it has to be worded carefully so it doesn't over excite-over commit and then every winter enthusiast is bummed if it doesn't work out.

Ensembles are not favoring the 00z/10 EC/GGEM regarding big snows to the coast.  This is not a done deal... GFS always seems late to the table these days on events, despite decent LR idea.  

To start threads, for me requires daily due diligence. I don't have that time, since I'm still working part time (engineering aide) and  am blessed to have extended family-friend considerations inclusive of my wife & 3 grandkids under 3. 

Again, I'm not yet buying a coastal snowstorm, instead interior snow and ice storm with coastal predominant rain/wind etc. If this verifies as I interpreted...some in this subforum might say MEH?  whatever that is. Duration might make this a fairly exceptional storm for the interior northeast, if it pans out... 

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12z/10 HRRR is pretty big.  12z/10 NAM looks a little warm, but the NAM3K is colder.  Want to see the 12z/10 SPC HREF chill and add an inch or 2 to its previous 48 hrs (by 00z/12z).  Am surprised at the HRRR but it matches recent increases in qpf slated for the inverted trough NYC to the Catskills.  I like the potential.  Added the maximum positive snow depth top (that's a min amount) and the Kuchera (bottom) which is the max amount.  I could see in very lite late Sunday precip, briefly turning to drizzle in Sussex County NJ.

 

No matter, plowing looks likely to me,  for much of CT/NYS/MA (west of KORH), ne PA and north of I80 in nw NJ. 

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