Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 3rd wet snow potential


olafminesaw
 Share

Recommended Posts

Given the dynamics involved with this system, I don’t think ground temps matter as much as they would for a lighter event. Snowfall coming down at 2” an hour will stick to a frying pan right off the cook top… It obviously will melt your accumulation somewhat so it won’t be maximized but you can get heavy totals with warm ground when the rates are what are being suggested. That being said- the NW trend took the vast majority of this board away from the party. The 1-4” of backend snowfall shown on models for much of NC is not going to be enough to overcome the warm ground, such as will happen in VA. A storm track inland over southern NC is not a conducive storm track for accumulating snow in these parts. Sure there will probably be some backend flakes but this is a Virginia storm for sure

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a gorgeous low! The thing I love about weather is whatever goes up, must come down. After a week of April weather we go hard into the season with back to back lows. I think we’ll get some winds up to 40 mph in the Midlands and Lowcountry but other than that I’m not expecting much. It’s a shame soil temps are what they are, or else we could’ve had clipper like accums in North Alabama & Georgia. 
 

I will say though I expect some tornadoes today that definitely bear watching on the warm side of this. Not too much instability but just enough with a strong jet and tons of helicity. Definitely an October/November Midwest type threat today 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this is Virginia's storm through and through, and I think that after this brutal December we should be rooting for our neighbors. I think they're in for a nice little paste bomb. After this torch stretch, we should of known a system wouldn't just fall right into our lap, that would of been way too easy!!

I'm pretty pessimistic on accumulation. I usually tune the ground temps argument out but I think it has a little more merit after a historic torch. However, I think the northern half of NC gets at the very least some token flakes morning in noon on Monday. I hope it's pretty! 

Lastly, i wouldn't sleep on the end of the week. A little bit of juiced-up clipper potential. We still likely need some adjustments to have that shortwave dig a little more.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I myself enjoy the snow maps, but...not very helpful other than for trends 

 

 

:weep:

The bottom map is what will happen. Yes peeps in Virginia from Richmond to Roanoke and Charlottesville will do well. But Im keeping my expectation in check with some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain and maybe a very brief period of snow.   Im not even concerned about accumulation here it would just be nice to see some fall. 

Good luck to you guys in the Mtns. You should get a good clobbering out of this. Maybe blizzard like conditions in the higher elevations. Take pics for piedmont peeps :D

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Avdave said:

The bottom map is what will happen. Yes peeps in Virginia from Richmond to Roanoke and Charlottesville will do well. But Im keeping my expectation in check with some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain and maybe a very brief period of snow.   Im not even concerned about accumulation here it would just be nice to see some fall. 

Good luck to you guys in the Mtns. You should get a good clobbering out of this. Maybe blizzard like conditions in the higher elevations. Take pics for piedmont peeps :D

Yeah I just wanted to be able to get some good shots but it wasn't meant to be. We will see on the token flakes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of central North Carolina, including the
  following counties, Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland,
  Davidson, Durham, Edgecombe, Forsyth, Franklin, Granville,
  Guilford, Halifax, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Montgomery,
  Moore, Nash, Orange, Person, Randolph, Richmond, Sampson,
  Scotland, Stanly, Vance, Wake, Warren, Wayne and Wilson.

* WHEN...From Midnight EST tonight through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the central North
    Carolina late this evening and overnight, as an area of low
    pressure and cold front cross the region. A widespread two to
    three inches of rain are expected through Monday.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

That's very surprising...especially since model consensus, including short-range hires models, show at least a 2-3 hour period of snow.  
I wouldn't even be surprised to see a winter weather advisory.

Agreed- pretty much everything has continued to show a period of snow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

That's very surprising...especially since model consensus, including short-range hires models, show at least a 2-3 hour period of snow.  
I wouldn't even be surprised to see a winter weather advisory.

Yeah they must not be buying it. I am waiting to see the reasoning. I am waiting on their AFD to update for that time period.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 PM Sunday...

By Monday morning, colder air will have moved into the region, and
the atmosphere will cool off enough to support snow in addition to
rain as the surface low and upper level low reach central North
Carolina and continue to push to the northeast. The hardest question
to answer will be determining where snowfall rates are high enough
to overcome the very warm ground temperatures in the 50s and 60s,
considering temperatures have not fallen below freezing in the last
week. While snow will melt on contact with a warm surface, a strong
enough snowfall rate would be able to overcome the warm surface and
allow for accumulation to begin. There is no good way to quantify
this. The current forecast calls for snow to fall as far south as US-
64 and as far east as I-95, although there will be many locations
that have a mix of rain and snow. The bulk of the accumulating snow
should be located north of I-85 and occur during the morning hours.
Considering the uncertainty of snow accumulation due to the warm
ground, have decided to be conservative with coverage of a Winter
Weather Advisory, and with the afternoon package will only issue an
advisory for Person and Granville Counties, climatologically favored
locations for snowfall. Later shifts will have the opportunity to
decide if they want to expand the advisory area.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...