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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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7 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

That's about 3 of 20 members supporting the op GFS. Not exactly inspiring.

It’s 144 hours out. I’d take OP at this range. Especially when it’s 2 in a row and backed up by the other two big models. 
I feel pretty good. Confident? No. But pretty hopeful there’s going to be something interesting.

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Definitely a trend the last 6 runs of GFS. However the mean is still way SE, there a few really NW ones that are throwing off the mean.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

 

What's interesting is not out west so much as downstream evolution. The ridge out western CONUS is pretty much depicted same way in last 4 runs...downstream a different story with how the lead system gets handled. Something to look at. 

One thing is certain..this is gonna be a long rest of week...

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1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

As already posted, slight shift W in the GEFS but the mean is still well east of the Op. Anything is possible. 

1223313926_gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ne-snow_total_multimember_panel-2518000(1).thumb.png.e11a5f250e1bf46d1ab4a1019b0923d7.png

5/20 hits, better than 3/20 on 12Z.  A couple others could be hits but their timing might be off.  IMO the next several runs of the various ensembles will tip the hand as to whether all the GFS/EC/CMC op runs are western outliers or are onto something.  The op mods are supposed to be more skilled. The fact that the usual suspects (JMA/NAVGEM/UKMET) are out to sea vs the others makes sense from a typical model bias standpoint, FWIW.

Edit: Ukie 12Z not out to sea, just slower than GFS, has a 986mb low going over Caoe Hatteras at 144h. (GFS is inland from HAT and sooner). No idea what Ukie does after that but...it has a vertically stacked low at the base of a negatively tilted trough. Hard to see that riding out ENE over the BM.

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Only chance that storm has for our area is if that northern stream phases in. If it misses that it’s a fish storm or i95 

Yep. I think this one's gonna be too far off the coast for us. The trough isn't in the right spot..and there hasn't been a trough in the right spot for years.

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