tombo82685 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I know how it happens I've just always wondered what the sounding thresholds are. Here is a good study on it https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2017-03-22 You see the thin blue line just to the left of the red line, that is your wet bulb temp I believe when the column gets saturated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Here is an easy break down. The numbers on the bottom are your temperatures at the surface then as you go vertical it's going vertical in atmosphere. So I highlighted three lines. Middle line is the freezing mark from the surface then upward throughout the atmosphere. Line to the left is -10c line to the right is +10c. Red line is your temperature throughout the whole profile, green is dew point. FYI, that yellow section of the temp (red) line is the Snow Growth Zone, or DGZ - Dendrite Growth Zone. You want to see the temp and dewpoint lines about merged as you go up in altitude (near saturation) AND have the upward vertical velocity (UVV), air motion, which is shown by the horizontal bars on the LH vertical Axis, aligned with the DGZ. This sounding is sh*t for any precip as the column is dry in an arctic airmass and what little UVV there is, isn't well aligned with the DGZ. So...upshot...effin cold and low humidity. Edit: this is more for @sferic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Will be interesting to see how this plays out on gfs. TPV north of maine is stronger, with crushing hgts, but ULL in southern plains is slower and the northern stream piece of energy is slower. So it all could just negate each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I did that for @TugHillMatt Wait, why? How do I always get dragged into these things? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Thinking GFS def gonna go boom again this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 That is a beast of an ULL in the south there. This is going to be close. tpv starting to get out and hgts starting to respond, looks like ULL trying to gain some latitude, northern energy little slower so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: That is a beast of an ULL in the south there. This is going to be close. tpv starting to get out and hgts starting to respond, looks like ULL trying to gain some latitude, northern energy little slower so far I'd love to see a vertically stacked low in the NY bight...would be mucho goodness for our entire forum... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Boom. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Actually dry slots many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I'd love to see a vertically stacked low in the NY bight...would be mucho goodness for our entire forum... synoptic ftmfw, none of this 20 miles band of silliness, spread the wealth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Actually dry slots many. cut off from the flow, so it basically unravels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Oh boy! East coast weenies aren’t gonna like that. Lol. It can truly stop going west now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: synoptic ftmfw, none of this 20 miles band of silliness, spread the wealth Occluded and Snows itself out over us. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed. Ok little brother 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: synoptic ftmfw, none of this 20 miles band of silliness, spread the wealth I'm looking at that snowfall map and looks like a 100 mile wide band of silliness instead of 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm looking at that snowfall map and looks like a 100 mile wide band of silliness instead of 25. that 100 mile band gets 90 percent of the posters on here. I'm sure we will all take 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: that 100 mile band gets 90 percent of the posters on here. I'm sure we will all take That band is crazy! That might be 3"+ per Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed. Except... It's trying to go Northwest over those mountains to the new benchmark: Jamestown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Hopefully GFS is showing the furthest West track and the 12Z Euro furthest east. Tighten the path... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That band is crazy! That might be 3"+ per WAA slamming into cold dense air, intense VV's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed. I agree though, this is either east or west of the mtns, not up the spine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed. yeah they do. Not often but they do. I point it out every few years when it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This runs smack into a banana HP. It’s more like a retrograde scenario. It has no where to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 12 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Occluded and Snows itself out over us. Lol CNY slots in the 00Z GooFuS scenario. We toss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ggem looks pretty damn close to gfs at hr 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 When we are talking about storms crossing the apps we are usually talking about W-E. This is E-W. These big ones do what they want. But up through Eastern PA would be a lot more expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looks like the GEFS is gonna shift W this run vs 18z. Will be interesting to see the spread here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 ggem has a 984 low in southern central ME. so close to GFS track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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