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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I know how it happens I've just always wondered what the sounding thresholds are.

Here is a good study on it

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2017-03-22

You see the thin blue line just to the left of the red line, that is your wet bulb temp I believe when the column gets saturated 

gfs_2022011200_006_40.0--75.5.png

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Here is an easy break down. The numbers on the bottom are your temperatures at the surface then as you go vertical it's going vertical in atmosphere. So I highlighted three lines. Middle line is the freezing mark from the surface then upward throughout the atmosphere. Line to the left is -10c line to the right is +10c. Red line is your temperature throughout the whole profile, green is dew point. 

gfs_2022011200_006_43.75--75.75.png

FYI, that yellow section of the temp (red) line is the Snow Growth Zone, or DGZ - Dendrite Growth Zone. You want to see the temp and dewpoint lines about merged as you go up in altitude (near saturation) AND have the upward vertical velocity (UVV), air motion, which is shown by the horizontal bars on the LH vertical Axis, aligned with the DGZ. This sounding is sh*t for any precip as the column is dry in an arctic airmass and what little UVV there is, isn't well aligned with the DGZ. So...upshot...effin cold and low humidity. 

Edit: this is more for @sferic

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That is a beast of an ULL in the south there. This is going to be close. tpv starting to get out and hgts starting to respond, looks like ULL trying to gain some latitude, northern energy little slower so far 

I'd love to see a vertically stacked low in the NY bight...would be mucho goodness for our entire forum... 

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