Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

[tombo82685]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I know how it happens I've just always wondered what the sounding thresholds are.

Here is a good study on it

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2017-03-22

You see the thin blue line just to the left of the red line, that is your wet bulb temp I believe when the column gets saturated 

[Syrmax]

16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Here is an easy break down. The numbers on the bottom are your temperatures at the surface then as you go vertical it's going vertical in atmosphere. So I highlighted three lines. Middle line is the freezing mark from the surface then upward throughout the atmosphere. Line to the left is -10c line to the right is +10c. Red line is your temperature throughout the whole profile, green is dew point. 

FYI, that yellow section of the temp (red) line is the Snow Growth Zone, or DGZ - Dendrite Growth Zone. You want to see the temp and dewpoint lines about merged as you go up in altitude (near saturation) AND have the upward vertical velocity (UVV), air motion, which is shown by the horizontal bars on the LH vertical Axis, aligned with the DGZ. This sounding is sh*t for any precip as the column is dry in an arctic airmass and what little UVV there is, isn't well aligned with the DGZ. So...upshot...effin cold and low humidity. 

Edit: this is more for @sferic

[tombo82685]

Will be interesting to see how this plays out on gfs. TPV north of maine is stronger, with crushing hgts, but ULL in southern plains is slower and the northern stream piece of energy is slower. So it all could just negate each other. 

[TugHillMatt]

12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I did that for @TugHillMatt

Wait, why?

How do I always get dragged into these things? Lol

[BGM Blizzard]

Thinking GFS def gonna go boom again this run. 

[tombo82685]

That is a beast of an ULL in the south there. This is going to be close. tpv starting to get out and hgts starting to respond, looks like ULL trying to gain some latitude, northern energy little slower so far 

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That is a beast of an ULL in the south there. This is going to be close. tpv starting to get out and hgts starting to respond, looks like ULL trying to gain some latitude, northern energy little slower so far 

I'd love to see a vertically stacked low in the NY bight...would be mucho goodness for our entire forum... 

[96blizz]

Boom. 

[96blizz]

Actually dry slots many. 

[96blizz]

[tombo82685]

2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I'd love to see a vertically stacked low in the NY bight...would be mucho goodness for our entire forum... 

synoptic ftmfw, none of this 20 miles band of silliness, spread the wealth 

[BuffaloWeather]

The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed.

[tombo82685]

1 minute ago, 96blizz said:

Actually dry slots many. 

cut off from the flow, so it basically unravels 

[rochesterdave]

Oh boy! East coast weenies aren’t gonna like that. Lol. It can truly stop going west now. 

[96blizz]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

synoptic ftmfw, none of this 20 miles band of silliness, spread the wealth 

Occluded and Snows itself out over us. Lol

[rochesterdave]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed.

Ok little brother 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

synoptic ftmfw, none of this 20 miles band of silliness, spread the wealth 

I'm looking at that snowfall map and looks like a 100 mile wide band of silliness instead of 25.

[tombo82685]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm looking at that snowfall map and looks like a 100 mile wide band of silliness instead of 25.

that 100 mile band gets 90 percent of the posters on here. I'm sure we will all take 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

that 100 mile band gets 90 percent of the posters on here. I'm sure we will all take 

That band is crazy! That might be 3"+ per

[TugHillMatt]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed.

Except... It's trying to go Northwest over those mountains to the new benchmark: Jamestown.

[TugHillMatt]

Hopefully GFS is showing the furthest West track and the 12Z Euro furthest east. Tighten the path...

[tombo82685]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That band is crazy! That might be 3"+ per

WAA slamming into cold dense air, intense VV's

[tombo82685]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed.

I agree though, this is either east or west of the mtns, not up the spine 

[Syrmax]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The GFS did it again, storms never cross the apps like that. Tossed.

yeah they do.  Not often but they do.  I point it out every few  years when it happens.

[rochesterdave]

This runs smack into a banana HP. It’s more like a retrograde scenario. It has no where to go. 

[Syrmax]

12 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Occluded and Snows itself out over us. Lol

CNY slots in the 00Z GooFuS scenario.  We toss.  

[tombo82685]

ggem looks pretty damn close to gfs at hr 120

[rochesterdave]

When we are talking about storms crossing the apps we are usually talking about W-E. This is E-W. These big ones do what they want. But up through Eastern PA would be a lot more expected.

[BGM Blizzard]

Looks like the GEFS is gonna shift W this run vs 18z. Will be interesting to see the spread here shortly.

[tombo82685]

ggem has a 984 low in southern central ME. so close to GFS track