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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

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7 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

That's about 3 of 20 members supporting the op GFS. Not exactly inspiring.

It’s 144 hours out. I’d take OP at this range. Especially when it’s 2 in a row and backed up by the other two big models. 
I feel pretty good. Confident? No. But pretty hopeful there’s going to be something interesting.

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Definitely a trend the last 6 runs of GFS. However the mean is still way SE, there a few really NW ones that are throwing off the mean.





What's interesting is not out west so much as downstream evolution. The ridge out western CONUS is pretty much depicted same way in last 4 runs...downstream a different story with how the lead system gets handled. Something to look at. 

One thing is certain..this is gonna be a long rest of week...

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1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

As already posted, slight shift W in the GEFS but the mean is still well east of the Op. Anything is possible. 


5/20 hits, better than 3/20 on 12Z.  A couple others could be hits but their timing might be off.  IMO the next several runs of the various ensembles will tip the hand as to whether all the GFS/EC/CMC op runs are western outliers or are onto something.  The op mods are supposed to be more skilled. The fact that the usual suspects (JMA/NAVGEM/UKMET) are out to sea vs the others makes sense from a typical model bias standpoint, FWIW.

Edit: Ukie 12Z not out to sea, just slower than GFS, has a 986mb low going over Caoe Hatteras at 144h. (GFS is inland from HAT and sooner). No idea what Ukie does after that but...it has a vertically stacked low at the base of a negatively tilted trough. Hard to see that riding out ENE over the BM.

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Only chance that storm has for our area is if that northern stream phases in. If it misses that it’s a fish storm or i95 

Yep. I think this one's gonna be too far off the coast for us. The trough isn't in the right spot..and there hasn't been a trough in the right spot for years.

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