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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Just now, rochesterdave said:

LR has been funny this year. It has often been the opposite of what it’s advertised. About a week ago, the first half of March looked great. Now it looks like a strong SE ridge with lots of cutters. Time will tell. 

Yeah long GFS brings us to middle of March with nothing. Would likely shut the door on winter. I don't think its a terrible pattern, something can pop up as cold air is close nearby.

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An elevated warm front will approach the region Monday night.
Moisture will increase as a 30kt low-level jet moves across the
region and light snow will begin to move into the North Country
very late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will
fall to the teens across western NY to near 0F across the North
Country Monday night. The associated area of low pressure near
Lake Huron Tuesday morning will track east over Lake Ontario and
the Saint Lawrence Valley by Tuesday afternoon. A southerly
flow ahead of the advancing cold front will allow surface
temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s across the
region. Mainly rain showers will increase in coverage as a cold
front tracks across the region Tuesday. Colder temperatures will
persist at higher elevations east of Lake Ontario and snow
showers are likely through the afternoon with minor
accumulations on the Tug Hill Tuesday.

Widespread rain and snow showers taper off to scattered snow showers
Tuesday night. Minor snow accumulation is possible. Temperatures
will fall to the 20s across western NY to the teens across the North
Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another area of low pressure will quickly track from the Northern
Plains to the Great Lakes region Wednesday. The chance for snow
showers will increase during the day becoming more widespread by
Wednesday night. Cold, northwest flow will move back into the region
resulting in 850mb temperatures falling to near -20C by Thursday
night. Lake effect snow showers are possible through Thursday night.
An area of high pressure will likely build into the region Friday
into Saturday resulting in mostly dry conditions.

A warming trend may start Saturday with temperatures climbing above
normal. An area of low pressure may produce widespread rain for the
weekend.
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A digging mid level trough will cross Quebec this afternoon before
reaching northern New England tonight, driving an arctic cold front
southeast across the area this afternoon and early evening. The
passage of the arctic front will quickly end the lake response east
of Lake Ontario as the band of lake effect snow becomes captured by
the arctic front and pushed onshore and well south of the lake this
afternoon.

The merged lake effect/arctic front band of snow will produce a few
brief bursts of moderate to heavy snow as it crosses the area from
northwest to southeast this afternoon. The best chance of a burst of
heavy snow will be along the south shore of Lake Ontario, Genesee
Valley, into the western Finger Lakes and areas southeast of Lake
Ontario where the arctic front will have the best lake enhancement.
Also expect a brief period of lake enhanced/upslope snow for the
higher terrain east of Lake Ontario this afternoon and early evening
as convergence and moisture increase just ahead of the arctic front.

Accumulations will be minor, with a dusting to 2" in most locations
as the snow showers and brief bursts of snow move through the area.
Higher terrain east of Lake Erie may see up to 3" with lake
enhancement, and the Tug Hill/Oswego County may see an additional 3"
this afternoon and evening with lake and upslope enhancement. Winds
will continue to gust in the 25 to 35 knot range through this
evening, producing blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

Following the passage of the arctic front, limited lake effect snow
will develop southeast of Lake Ontario and Erie later this evening
through early Monday morning in NW/NNW flow. Inversion heights
quickly lower and the airmass quickly dries behind the arctic front,
so any additional accumulations will be minor overnight through
Monday morning with a spotty 1-2" possible in persistent bands.
Winds will quickly diminish overnight, bringing an end to blowing
and drifting snow.

WUNIDS_map - 2022-02-27T124646.658.gif

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A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
ONTARIO...OSWEGO... ORLEANS...WAYNE...GENESEE...MONROE...
NIAGARA...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A band of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow which can
rapidly reduce visibility to less than a half of a mile. Winds will
gust up to 40 mph, producing blowing and drifting snow.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 140 PM EST, a band of moderate to heavy
lake enhanced snow stretched along much of the south shore of Lake
Ontario from Lockport to Mexico Bay, and was moving southeast at 40
mph. The band of snow will continue to impact areas southeast of
Lake Ontario.
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