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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

1043 over Ontario. Such a shift from a few days ago. Love it. 

It's not really that far out there either. The storm starts later Weds afternoon, main part of storm hits on Thursday. Obviously a lot of changes coming next few days. Should have a pretty good idea by Monday nights runs.

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Honestly, the one F”””ING week I have to go to Lake Placid?  I happened to be working in Buffalo the last big LES event and now I have to drive my family through the Dacks Thursday AM.  Appreciate any insight y’all can offer in terms of timing…I lurk and admire but this round, would appreciate any guidance.  
 

TY

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18 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Euro continues to shift SE. Decent snowfall south of i-90 with little to no mixed precip anywhere... just ra/sn verbatim. Before long it'll look like the UK and mostly hit south of the forum.

Stuck @129 hours on WB and PW.

ecmwf-deterministic-east-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3965200.thumb.png.de19b1c831ff2dbe648685169147d2f6.pngecmwf-deterministic-east-snow_72hr-3965200.thumb.png.eb0981abbc19b3c706055799d24f9684.pngecmwf-deterministic-nystate-snow_72hr-3965200.thumb.png.e3b5ff368a22e14849bff3642a0aab75.pngecmwf-deterministic-nystate-total_precip_ptype_fourpanel-3965200.thumb.png.da92cbf570bd2c02b63b7167fb667c48.png

Looks very odd. Usually don't have 500 mile wide area of snow of 6 inches with basically a cold front

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52 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Track of the GEFS low seems to mirror the Op and another tick SE.  No big jump as of now and looks like the Euro (not Op) and CMC ensembles. I don’t have weatherbell for GEFS snow maps. 

47808E4F-13F0-4D18-B29B-7B4540B4D03A.png

You can get them for free from the COD website. Still a bit too far NW for those outside of the BUF-ROC-ART corridor.(You can find all the individual ensembles as well.)

image.png.2312d0a35392decdedd08406d11a2033.png

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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

You can get them for free from the COD website. Still a bit too far NW for those outside of the BUF-ROC-ART corridor.(You can find all the individual ensembles as well.)

image.png.2312d0a35392decdedd08406d11a2033.png

Thank you. I like the look given where the Ukie and Euro ops are. 
For now, the blend is our friend. 

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1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Not 1 model had this this morning. 

Screenshot_20220130-051739_Samsung Internet.jpg

ARW had this on both runs yesterday.  That models has been great at picking up the sneaky little streamers this year.  Always goes way overboard on QPF and snowfall output but generally does a great job with band recognition and placement.  It was the only model to really pickup on that meso low event off Ontario a couple days ago.  

 

9995E1E1-9DD9-41B6-95CD-980F3E38FF5D.jpeg

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16 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

ARW had this on both runs yesterday.  That models has been great at picking up the sneaky little streamers this year.  Always goes way overboard on QPF and snowfall output but generally does a great job with band recognition and placement.  It was the only model to really pickup on that meso low event off Ontario a couple days ago.  

 

9995E1E1-9DD9-41B6-95CD-980F3E38FF5D.jpeg

Actually roc did get over 3 inches Friday into sat am. And it was showing 3 to 5 in area so yeah these meso models are pretty good.

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