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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Mixed feeling about hanging on [email protected] for the midweek event, parsing 10 mile wiggles in global model output. And it's Sunday, we're well outside the 1-2 day "lock it in" period.  On the other hand, it's what we do. ;)

All signs point to a mixed glop here near Haus Sizzle. But better than the purifying 3 day meltdown advertised not too long ago.

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3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Mixed feeling about hanging on [email protected] for the midweek event, parsing 10 mile wiggles in global model output. And it's Sunday, we're well outside the 1-2 day "lock it in" period.  On the other hand, it's what we do. ;)

All signs point to a mixed glop here near Haus Sizzle. But better than the purifying 3 day meltdown advertised not too long ago.

Yeah looking like I need to hope for sleet this far east. Not interested remotely yet and won't care until Tuesday even if it was showing 2ft. Frontal systems like this suck. 

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

that final wave I don't think os for us. 2 waves. First is ours, second is bgm and maybe i95. Unless this full on phases with southern stream disturbance, which I don't think it will, that cold will press bndry

Question, does this midweek system qualify (in general) as an SWFE?  Seems like it would but I'm not sure that there's a commonly accepted definition for these. 

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9 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Question, does this midweek system qualify (in general) as an SWFE?  Seems like it would but I'm not sure that there's a commonly accepted definition for these. 

it looks either anafrontal to me or overunning. Wave forms along front, which is anafrontal. You can also argue overrunning because cold high in place which is aiding in the heavy precip due to sharp thermal contrast 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

it looks either anafrontal to me or overunning. Wave forms along front, which is anafrontal. You can also argue overrunning because cold high in place which is aiding in the heavy precip due to sharp thermal contrast 

Definitely more of a anafrontal event to me which is the problem. 

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Anafrontals are tough to forecast. We had a lot of them last year and the year before. Lots of disappointments. These A’s have been a lot more fun to watch. It’s pretty surprising how consistent the models have been in the last 24 hours showing a colder event. 
I feel like I remember lots of anafrontal systems that went very NW in the final 2 day frame. ?? My memory is not great though

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6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Anafrontals are tough to forecast. We had a lot of them last year and the year before. Lots of disappointments. These A’s have been a lot more fun to watch. It’s pretty surprising how consistent the models have been in the last 24 hours showing a colder event. 
I feel like I remember lots of anafrontal systems that went very NW in the final 2 day frame. ?? My memory is not great though

They def can because models often times rush the cold air and adjust closer in. But not often you have a 1040+mb high slamming in  from the west. How much energy phases in the south is the key part. More energy phases further west it goes. Less energy phases south it goes 

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6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Anafrontals are tough to forecast. We had a lot of them last year and the year before. Lots of disappointments. These A’s have been a lot more fun to watch. It’s pretty surprising how consistent the models have been in the last 24 hours showing a colder event. 
I feel like I remember lots of anafrontal systems that went very NW in the final 2 day frame. ?? My memory is not great though

I'm feeling reasonably confident for ~6" SN and a bag of garbage thrown in also, for Haus Sizzle.  Seems like Feb provides better chances for arctic air pushes.  I think KBGM or KBUF mentioned favorable climatology regarding the arctic air progression.  @tombo82685has pretty well laid out what could most likely Bollocks things up...amount of phasing and timing of the system in the SW.

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23 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Anafrontals are tough to forecast. We had a lot of them last year and the year before. Lots of disappointments. These A’s have been a lot more fun to watch. It’s pretty surprising how consistent the models have been in the last 24 hours showing a colder event. 
I feel like I remember lots of anafrontal systems that went very NW in the final 2 day frame. ?? My memory is not great though

Agreed. However, if what some of the modeling is showing is true, this anafrontal has an immense channel of gulf stream moisture overriding a very strong arctic high. It has crazy potential. It's a rare setup. You know how hard it is to get 2-2.5" of qpf frozen around WNY without the lakes? To see it possibly happen twice within a month would be pretty rare.

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The ratios in massachusetts were higher than I thought. A few reports. Far SE Mass had lower ratios vs N/NE Mass where more cold air was. These are just from yesterday, most of these spots had snow reports the previous day too.

1.01=22"

.85=27.5"

1.20=17.5"

1.17=15"

.90=18"

1.81"=24"

2022&cp=0

 

 

Looks about right. They were expecting 15-20/1 ratios 

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