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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, I just don’t get why the definite statements. Take it two weeks at a time. 
 

agree, the vortex is not super strong like 19/20 where it was lights out. We will have chances in January

He's an expert on the subject. But I was not a fan of his previous tweet at all either. Where he said that 50mb was heading straight to the pole to strengthen. That has not been the case since he said that. 

1683856948_index(9).thumb.png.6d031f2cdd5e6b42f16b62dbf92ab65e.png

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Some of the key points made in the NOAA MJO update today. Numbers 4 and 5 are related to the discussions we've been having here, so not surprising. They did note some signs of renewed eastward propagation which I think most would like to hear. 

 

-Both velocity  potential  based  MJO  and  RMM  indices  indicate  an  active  West  Pacific  MJO  event with  little  continued  eastward  propagation  in  recent  weeks.

-There  is  disagreement  among  the  dynamical  models  regarding  the  predicted  evolution  of  the  MJO, leading  to  continued  uncertainty  in  the  outlook.

-Tropical  cyclone  formation  is  favored  over  the  southern  Pacific  where  any  coherence  of  the  MJO  is more  likely  to  manifest  itself  during  the  next  two  weeks.

-While  West  Pacific  MJO  events  typically  favor  colder  than  normal  conditions  across  the  CONUS, extended  range  model  guidance  continues  to  mimic  more  of  an  amplified  negative  Pacific  North American  pattern,  suggestive  of  La Niña dominating  the  extratropical  response  over  North America. 

-An incoherent spatial pattern remains evident in the upper-level velocity potential field, likely due to ongoing competing interference with other modes of tropical variability.

-Suppressed conditions have strengthened throughout much of the Indian Ocean. 

-The RMM based MJO index continues to exhibit a fairly stagnant west Pacific event during the past few weeks.

-However, the intraseasonal signal has shown signs of renewed eastward propagation in recent days.  

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January...climate stats from Central Park...since 1870...

Decade averages...

decade...ave...high...low...ave/ max min max...min...snowfall...precipitation

1870's...30.3...37.5...23.8.....53.3.....5.6...68...-4......9.6"......3.29"

1880's...28.7...39.6...24.7.....53.5.....4.3...65...-6......9.1"......4.12"

1890's...31.7...37.6...23.7......55.0.....9.0...64...-2......8.6"......3.46"

1900's...32.1...38.4...25.3.....55.2.....7.5...64...-1......8.1".......3.07"

1910's...32.4...40.9...21.7......57.1......6.6...69...-5......5.1"......3.77"

1920's...30.5...34.0...23.4.....53.9....4.6...62...-2......8.9".....3.52"

1930's...34.7...43.2...28.9.....59.9.....9.7...70...-3......6.4".....3.98"

1940's...31.0...38.6...25.0......56.2.....7.6...63....0......7.7"......3.20"

1950's...33.7...41.4...28.5......58.7....10.8...72....0......5.0"......2.75"

1960's...31.8...37.4...26.7......55.4......8.6...68...-1......7.1"......2.37"

1970's...30.6...37.3...22.1......57.5.....6.0...66...-2......8.0"......4.57"

1980's...31.3...37.4...26.1......57.4.....6.8...63...-2......7.9"......3.26"

1990's...34.8...41.4...25.6......60.9...11.2...66...-2.....6.1"......4.47"

2000's...33.1...40.9...24.7......60.8....9.8...72.....1......7.2"......3.19"

2010's...32.8...38.0...28.6.....59.2.....8.7...66....2....12.7"......3.60".....

2020's...37.0...39.1...34.8......60.0...17.0...69...14......2.2"......2.12"...2020-2021...

1870-

2019......32.0...43.2...21.7…..57.2......8.0...72...-6.......7.8"....3.45"

1990-

2019......33.6...41.4...24.7.....60.3......9.9...72...-2......8.7"....3.75"

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16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you agree with this or not ? I think its 30 % ( as of now )possible - I don't think the pattern supports the second wave ( if its real )early next week passing south of us...

The ridge has been our enemy all month. I think that trends north .  We should be fine if there is a good amount of cold air around. 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least for the first week of January, the convection really increased again over that record WPAC warm pool. So we have forcing north of the equator in the MJO phase 6 region. Forcing in this region during the first week of January allows amped systems to track to our west.

37BD27ED-7F62-4B61-A9AD-D2025AFED145.thumb.png.eea32edfe8ff7b339ae948746c7e58fd.png

 

At some point we have to score a storm. This year feels far less hostile than 97/98 or 01/02. However like u said it's the storm track rather than temp.

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I'm noticing an awful lot of spread just after the time of the jet extension impacting the Pacific Ridge and then cutting it off. That's not really surprising. Think that's going to need to play out a little bit. Timing wise, that event is just prior to the modeled push east with the MJO as well. So that's pretty interesting. 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

At least for the first week of January, the convection really increased again over that record WPAC warm pool. So we have forcing north of the equator in the MJO phase 6 region. Forcing in this region during the first week of January allows amped systems to track to our west.

37BD27ED-7F62-4B61-A9AD-D2025AFED145.thumb.png.eea32edfe8ff7b339ae948746c7e58fd.png

 

whats caused that warm pool?

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

And I don't see that stopping anytime soon which means winters from now on should mostly be a lot milder with less snows. 

Occasionally there could still be patterns that deliver a significant snowstorms but they'll be a lot rarer. 

Our golden era is sadly over. Meanwhile the west coast and Pacific NW will have their golden era at least until the warming becomes too much. 

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