Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,108
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Elarey7
    Newest Member
    Elarey7
    Joined

Winter 2021/2022 January Thread


AMZ8990
 Share

Recommended Posts

So somebody remind me, does this eruption help us?  It is the high latitude ones which are a "non starter" in terms of a temporary global downturn in temps.  Seems like high latitude makes it a lot warmer and lower latitudes cool things significantly for 3-5 years.  Either way, I hope the folks near that eruption are ok

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

So somebody remind me, does this eruption help us?  It is the high latitude ones which are a "non starter" in terms of a temporary global downturn in temps.  Seems like high latitude makes it a lot warmer and lower latitudes cool things significantly for 3-5 years.  Either way, I hope the folks near that eruption are ok

I would think that this one being an under the ocean eruption it probably didn't release as much ash and sulfur into the atmosphere as an eruption of that size otherwise would have. It was comparable in size to Mount Pinatubo which cooled global temps half a C.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NINA seems to be dying out quicker than i thought it would the SOI the last few days is acting more like a NINO now.The MJO going back into the Westen Pac .looks warmish  towards the end of the month

 

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
15 Jan 2022 1007.03 1007.60 -24.40 3.32 7.51
14 Jan 2022 1008.50 1005.95 -9.70 4.71 8.00
13 Jan 2022 1011.05 1005.35 5.14 5.64 8.43
12 Jan 2022 1013.14 1008.60 -0.32 6.01 8.61
11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80
10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02
9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43
8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77
7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97

ecmwf_z500a_wpac_fh144-216.gif

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Canadian with next weekends system. GFS looked like this at 18z but is suppressed at 0z. 

snku_024h.us_ov.png

Nice little NW jog, hopefully not too many more of these.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those living in E TN, modeling as we kind of guessed...moved westward overnight with the exception of the GFS.  The 0z CMC and Euro both have a significant winter storm signal next week from E TN into the Piedmont.  All ensembles have the system to some extent.  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

Euro managed to creep west with the next potential event. Still buries NC but has a 3-6+ from the West side of the Plateau East to the mountains. Super cold, high ratio snow if it happens like it was shown.

c4Lckg.jpg

Perhaps redemption for E TN???

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For those living in E TN, modeling as we kind of guessed...moved westward overnight with the exception of the GFS.  The 0z CMC and Euro both have a significant winter storm signal next week from E TN into the Piedmont.  All ensembles have the system to some extent.  

Wow! I know the gfs doesn’t have the greatest storm signal for next week, but snow or not, that is about as impressive of a winter pattern modeled that I’ve ever laid eyes on! Wow! Almost unbelievable 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I hope it’s not cold & dry for middle TN but it sure looks that way.  Par for course unfortunately.

Per what model run? What deterministic measure are you using?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Per what model run? What deterministic measure are you using?

Yes it can change quickly but as of now the middle & west part of state is looking mostly dry & cold. A lot of times if air is to cold.  It pushes the storms to south of area. I sure hope that changes.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS now has the storm this weekend for E TN as does the CMC.  Not a thing is nailed down with this storm.  Not sure modeling is correctly even jumping on the right piece of energy yet.  So, what looked like agreement this morning is anything but at 12z that said, both models have a system this weekend, just differing days.  Looks like a good chance for eastern parts of the forum area to finally see something trackable.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z GFS should perk some ears and eyes. 

Anafrontal gives a good shot mid week, small clipper gives snow showers to the east on Friday. Huge storm pops on the weekend and really hits the southern areas. 24 hr map for a week from now. There are two other snow maps before this one, Friday being minor. 

snku_024h.us_ov.png

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good look next weekend.  So far it has been disappearing and reappearing on different days of different models.  GFS and CMC have been consistent today with the look.  The Euro totally lost it.  Guessing they are sniffing something out.  Finally, we have room for this to come northwest in E TN.  Would be interesting if precip bridged the gap between the TR system and Sunday.   

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That Euro control map which I posted a few days ago....The 18z GFS has a very similar look after d10.  Temps below zero all of the way into Alabama and Georgia.    

Also signs the AO could possibly tank with a possible +PNA,see what it shows the next couple days

ao.sprd2.gif (618×800).png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...