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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Verbatim, the GFS would be the second biggest snowstorm on record.  Kuchera snowfall is 26.4".

So, we know that isn't happening, lol.

That's a run I'll be saving. Approaching 2 inches of liquid equivalent region wide so Kuchera wouldn't even be that far fetched. 

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1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Well I doubt that will happen but atleast there is potential. I just have a feeling this will be a coastal scraper. 

I agree, 6z ens had very little support for the westward jog on the OP depicted on that run. Start getting some ENS and other model support for a more inland track and overall agreement on evolution over the next couple days and I might start to get a little more optimistic. For now we have something to keep an eye on. Would be fantastic to score something even if much smaller early on in the pattern change and have snow around for awhile.

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I would be perfectly fine with us being on the northern fringe of a bigger storm for even a light to moderate event. I just don't want to waste a decent week of cold with no precipitation or storm. 

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Looks like a pretty substantial shift west in the tracks on the 12z GEFS. Most of them are hits for VA/MD/south of us but this looks to be trending away from a fish storm hopefully. 

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6 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Talk about a weenie run.  Last frame has a banger, too.  

I think my favorite part of that one is that it takes us from -18 one morning to possibly mixing with rain the very next day.

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2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I think my favorite part of that one is that it takes us from -18 one morning to possibly mixing with rain the very next day.

Welcome to Pittsburgh!

 

that run though was ridiculous. We are only about 5 days out so the storm likely won’t disappear but we all know how this works with shifts screwing us in the end.

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14 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Welcome to Pittsburgh!

 

that run though was ridiculous. We are only about 5 days out so the storm likely won’t disappear but we all know how this works with shifts screwing us in the end.

Way too early to worry about that. We don’t even know which direction it will screw us yet if it does.

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2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Finally get an inland track but only heavy flurries lol. Really though the Euro isn't far off, if the storm is slower or that energy in the Midwest is faster it's coming West. 

Wouldn’t have expected the Euro to make as drastic of a shift in just one run as it would have needed to make from 0z to 12z to give us a snowstorm. That would be too GFS-like. 

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Just now, TimB84 said:

Wouldn’t have expected the Euro to make as drastic of a shift in just one run as it would have needed to make from 0z to 12z to give us a snowstorm. That would be too GFS-like. 

Going to chip in here and say your post is spot on.  I do not see the off runs but the change in the Euro from yesterday's 12Z and 0Z run, to today's 12Z run is crazy.  And its not just ground truth snow, its everything including the 500mb maps, spacing and a MUCH slower evolution.   The SLP was 100-200 miles off the SE coast at 18Z Sunday, on the Euro 24 hours ago, now it is on the GA/AL line.   So one more drastic push west ala the Gem is certainly not a stretch.  Just a slight change in the trough. 

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3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Wouldn’t have expected the Euro to make as drastic of a shift in just one run as it would have needed to make from 0z to 12z to give us a snowstorm. That would be too GFS-like. 

That is about as drastic shift in our direction we could hope for in one run on the EURO. Still time for things to trend more in our direction and I wonder with a low pressure that strong if we wouldn't see more qpf thrown back west. 

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Man, there are some deep solutions on the EPS. With GFS/EURO/CMC all shifted massively in the same direction it really makes me wonder if they are catching on to a big storm for someone. Not necessarily meaning us, just interesting to see such a big jump in lock step like that. 

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It's a very unusual looking evolution.  Pure northern stream that digs down and tries to imitate a Miller A.  This is basically an Alberta clipper that is going as March of '93 for Halloween.

The timing looks better than it did on previous runs, but this is a window I've been looking at for a while now.

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_24.thumb.png.107d419b76aaba94f85361ab679385d6.png

You can see here the -NAO starting to really pump above Greenland and the 50/50 off Newfoundland.  Ridge out west.  Closed off low near the benchmark.  This is about as classic of an East Coast snowstorm look as you can get on paper.  The fine details still need to work themselves out as all these pieces of energy rotate around the trough.  Someone in the east is probably going to get buried, however.  Could be anywhere.

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