dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 EURO more WEST. Sneaking a leak (and a peek) in a meeting, but I think it’s output is going to be nice (esp city and east) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 So how do we get this to hold for 96ish more hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, dj3 said: Man... look at that low placement.. I feel like I'm a kid again in the 90s and Joe Denardo is about to come on the air lol I'm sure it hasn't been that long since a storm took this track but it feels like it and no doubt its rare. Euro gets more phase with that trailing energy allowing it to go almost due north and thus further west at our latitude. That part is only 76 hours out or so, and will be the make or break for us I think. Not to get greedy but we do have some room still on the Euro for slight adjustments west. To bad it's not Saturday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @RitualOfTheTrout That looks pretty similar to Jan 1994 right? That was high on the CIPS analogs. The low goes due north from myrtle beach and strengthening on the way. Extremely rare track but would be great for us if it can hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Jan '94 mixed in Morgantown, but not in PA, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Mailman said: Jan '94 mixed in Morgantown, but not in PA, right? I don’t recall anyone mixing. Greene and Fayette counties got drilled. 30” lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 43 minutes ago, dj3 said: If we have a run in which that beautiful magenta color makes it over AGC, I am going to need someone to inject that straight into my veins. Glorious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I can't imagine with the trends that this goes from suppressed and out to sea all the way to Great Lakes Cutter, so I'd imagine the western limit is approaching, and eastern corrections should start soon, doesn't mean it won't come back, but the wobble mode is probably at hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I can't imagine with the trends that this goes from suppressed and out to sea all the way to Great Lakes Cutter, so I'd imagine the western limit is approaching, and eastern corrections should start soon, doesn't mean it won't come back, but the wobble mode is probably at hand. Agree. I can't believe we have 4 more nights of models to go. You know there will be movement somewhere. Let's hope it wobbles back and forth but these 4 nights I am sure will be stressful with ups and downs. Why can't it just be Saturday night already. (SMH) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 EPS mean bumped up a decent amount like the GEFS did. 6 inch line splitting Allegheny county. I agree with both of you above, I am still slightly more concerned that the low does not get pulled directly north and takes more of an out to sea trajectory. Until I see some of the misses on the ensembles start to become slop/west misses I still think we have some wiggle room there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Soooo I am going skiing this weekend.... really would stink to get 'snowed in' on monday and tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ecanem said: Soooo I am going skiing this weekend.... really would stink to get 'snowed in' on monday and tuesday. Where at? Would love to be in the Laurels for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, MikeB_01 said: 12z EPS I should mention that the black line is the deterministic run of the Euro. The mean is about 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 44 minutes ago, dj3 said: Where at? Would love to be in the Laurels for this. Seven Springs. Aka in that euro 22” zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z GFS ended up okay. Got rid of that Mon River screwzone that showed up at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 gefs moved east fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: gefs moved east fwiw Yea a bunch of scrapes misses to the East on there. Still half or so with a decent to big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Buzzkills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Figured we should be in that period of time where they will start to tick East then west. Hopefully, nothing too drastic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Never want to be in the bullseye 100 hours out. Let's see if the trend back east continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Never want to be in the bullseye 100 hours out. Let's see if the trend back east continues. Bet it will, but hopefully, we see the final hours moving west a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 57 minutes ago, Gordo74 said: Buzzkills. Probably pretty irritating with all the self proclaimed Twitter certified meteorologists posting snowmaps for a storm 4 - 5 days away proclaiming the pretty pictures as absolute while being a real outlet like NWS trying to separate fact from fiction and actually inform the public. We are still very much within the envelope where this is a minor event or misses altogether. Models aren't likely to have the speed and strength of the follow up energy which ultimately phases and tugs the storm NW nailed down. That's the feature to watch along with strength of the storm and how far NE it makes it before that interaction happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 What do we need to see out of the storm Thursday and Friday near the coast to know if we’ll be in good or bad shape with this one? And where are we with that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: What do we need to see out of the storm Thursday and Friday near the coast to know if we’ll be in good or bad shape with this one? And where are we with that one? From what I’ve read we want that to move out quicker or be further East so that ridging can build along the coast and not allow this to escape out to sea/force it more inland toward the apps or coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I think the last few cycles that ocean storm has trended closer to the coast and slower to depart but it had been offset by the northern steam energy phasing in being stronger and forcing this directly north like @RitualOfTheTroutmentioned. I’m guessing we will need that to continue to be as potent or the ocean storm trends will shift this east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, dj3 said: From what I’ve read we want that to move out quicker or be further East so that ridging can build along the coast and not allow this to escape out to sea/force it more inland toward the apps or coastal plain. Wonder how it’s doing so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yeah i saw people resharing various Facebook posts about a big storm coming. It's funny that the average person doesn't understand how difficult it is to pinpoint a storm 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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