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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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3 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I’m some circles…but there is a great complaint thread for that 

Another 8-12” would great, especially considering the best contour in the best model isn’t our “forecast”

This still “feels” a little NW to me for that, but still time. Gotta get that cold air on the march

Agreed. Two 8” events in three calendar weeks? I’d take that.

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Just now, north pgh said:

I have to respectfully disagree. When you worry about the jackpot city you will always be disappointed. When we received our 20 inch storms in the mid 90's there were people east of me that had 30. Did I worry about that? Not at all. Just trying to stay optimistic. 

I forgot the /s tag on my post.

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5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I’m some circles…but there is a great complaint thread for that 

Another 8-12” would great, especially considering the best contour in the best model isn’t our “forecast”

This still “feels” a little NW to me for that, but still time. Gotta get that cold air on the march

I’d take a solid WWA* type event from a storm that wasn’t supposed to be ours any day of the week.

*I understand that any WWA-type snow event with this system would likely be escalated to a WSW simply because of the ice potential.

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Looks like the NWS isn't expecting much. This is area-wide from the current HWO:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Widespread and periodic preciptation associated mid to late week
frontal encroachment will result in mixed wintry precipitation which
could need a Winter Weather Advisory.

Looks like they aren't anticipating the need for Winter Storm Watches or Warnings anywhere in the CWA. We get advisories for a trace of freezing drizzle so they aren't going too far out on a limb.

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GFS ensembles are a lot more NW.

Overall trend is good, but we really need that high to push down. That’s what I’ll be watching as far as trends in strength and position. 

I expect the Euro to have its shit all over Lake Erie. But if it’s also south, I’ll really start to believe. 
 

 

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Just now, Burghblizz said:

GFS ensembles are a lot more NW.

Overall trend is good, but we really need that high to push down.

I expect the Euro to have its shit all over Lake Erie. But if it’s also south, I’ll really start to believe. 

Yes time to head out for a while. Tonight's runs will see if the trends continue to look good or **** on our parade. 

Positive vibes please. 

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26 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Canadian is south too. Not as much snow as GFS but it looks to be more snow than in previous runs and maybe a 4 plus or so at end. I know we have three days but you can't not like the trending. 

I actually thought the Canadian was a bit worse early on with the front having a more North to South orientation, then towards the end looked a bit better and we ended with more snow on the end.

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10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like the NWS isn't expecting much. This is area-wide from the current HWO:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Widespread and periodic preciptation associated mid to late week
frontal encroachment will result in mixed wintry precipitation which
could need a Winter Weather Advisory.

Looks like they aren't anticipating the need for Winter Storm Watches or Warnings anywhere in the CWA. We get advisories for a trace of freezing drizzle so they aren't going too far out on a limb.

I especially liked their social media posts the other day encouraging people to read their forecast discussions. :lol:

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13 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Hopefully it is playing in to the same tendency it had this past weekend to overamp things. Pretty far north with the boundary compared to the GFS. 

I feel like it is a bit south of previous runs. 

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I feel like it is a bit south of previous runs. 

Looks pretty close to 0z last night but possibly a tick south. Hopefully it will come around to a flatter colder/solution. 

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2 hours ago, Mailman said:

Hard to be optimistic with this sort of setup. At least for me, anyhow.

I agree.  The cold air is moving in too late.  If we had that high about 12 hours earlier, we might be in the game, but there's a rather large sleet signature for anything that isn't rain.

The 12Z GFS, for example, shows 10" of sleet or ice.  That's the period where the 850 temps are still above freezing.  The GFS might be 3-6" of snow on the backend.  Big IF, though, and the GFS is the absolute best show for us right now.  Every other model is less generous.

The look at 500H isn't one of a "big snowstorm," either.  The trough alignment is awful.

I think our best hope is this system resets the trough for energy behind it giving us a better shot at snow.  The GFS tries to show this with a ball of energy on Monday, but even right now I'd say it's not quite right.  Goes negative too soon.  Won't analyze it further, though, because we have to wait for this FROPA to go through.

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2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

But that’s rough, to miss out on the bullseye and an epic storm by 50-75 miles and just get a garden variety 8-12 event. It’d be a topic of discussion in this thread for weeks.

Not when we weren't expecting anything.  In Pittsburgh it's also hard to call 8-12" garden variety.  That's a biggie here, lol.

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5 minutes ago, jwilson said:

I agree.  The cold air is moving in too late.  If we had that high about 12 hours earlier, we might be in the game, but there's a rather large sleet signature for anything that isn't rain.

The 12Z GFS, for example, shows 10" of sleet or ice.  That's the period where the 850 temps are still above freezing.  The GFS might be 3-6" of snow on the backend.  Big IF, though, and the GFS is the absolute best show for us right now.  Every other model is less generous.

The look at 500H isn't one of a "big snowstorm," either.  The trough alignment is awful.

I think our best hope is this system resets the trough for energy behind it giving us a better shot at snow.  The GFS tries to show this with a ball of energy on Monday, but even right now I'd say it's not quite right.  Goes negative too soon.  Won't analyze it further, though, because we have to wait for this FROPA to go through.

I'll listen to you on this as you kind of nailed the MLK storm a few days in advance and said there were pretty major concerns.

 

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2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I like the Canadian snow depth map. This includes snow on the ground now. I'm not sure how these things are generated, as it certainly doesn't really jive with the snowfall maps. But it's fun to look at!

snod.conus.png

Would it take into account that most of what we have now will be gone?

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43 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I'll listen to you on this as you kind of nailed the MLK storm a few days in advance and said there were pretty major concerns.

 

Not sure what it is about that storm that you have turned a 6” to 10” storm (with general 6-12” type forecasts into a “bust”. Stop looking at the prettiest color on the best model. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Not sure what it is about that storm that you have turned a 6” to 10” storm (with general 6-12” type forecasts into a “bust”. Stop looking at the prettiest color on the best model. 

 

Would you back off? That strom had multiple models showing 12-18 inches for several days. It was an absolutely massive bust when AGC got 7 inches and didn't even hit warning level in a ton of spots.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Would it take into account that most of what we have now will be gone?

Well, it's supposed to account for melting and other effects. But it's only showing a couple inches of change between now and Thursday evening. It does seem to keep temperatures mostly below 40.

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