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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Some thoughts from a PGH met on another forum 

 

I would be very cautious with the current GFS solution for a couple reasons:

 

1) It is more than a day faster with this follow up wave compared to all other guidance, which fits into its bias of being way too progressive with disturbances.

 

2) It does not do a good job at all with handling the impact of low-level cold.

Euro looking good, so good to have a model without a SE bias on board.. Going to take some threading the needle. 

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The GFS at the end of the run is pure "Goofus" territory.  A 36-hour ice storm for VA, NC, and SC.

That glorified frontal passage on Friday looks "meh" to me right now.  The setup doesn't typically result in deep snow drifts.  We'll see if anything changes.

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If I had to make a call right now I'd say this will primarily be rain except for the back edge Thursday night into Friday. Euro op and Ukmet really the only 2 that show the front getting far enough South to put us on the cold side as the second wave ride up the boundary. The Euro ENS mean looks more like the GFS.

Still far enough out to see a change though just how it looks right now.

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So I guess it all depends on where that Arctic high is. If it pushes the ridge up then we rain and mix and maybe some snow. If it stays further north and rides above us then the heights are lower and the boundary is lower. I think we see a few inches from the backside but I don't think we jackpot. Still time to change.

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1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

Taken literally, I’m like 20 miles from the foot line, but yeah, not a fan of that look.

It never actually plays out like when the snowfall algorithms show those razor thin cutoffs like that in these types of setups. What would probably actually happen is a couple to a few inches of snowfall around the Pittsburgh to like 6, 7, 8, maybe 9 inches of snow around I-80. I suspect a lot of that along the southern edge of the heavy snowfall is actually slop - i.e., mixed sleet and freezing rain. The warm air aloft always makes it further north than expected. So even the 10:1 map is probably inflated.

 

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

The trend is not our friend. The Euro looks like gfs and cmc now. Give me cold rain I'll pass on a massive ice storm.

Color me shocked, GFS never showed us in a good spot, Euro slowly moved same way. At least you won't have to worry about washing your car with 1+ inches of rain. 

The overall look the first 2 weeks of Feb has degraded some vs the broad cold trough we saw a few days ago on the models. 

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39 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm gonna sound like KPitt but once a cutter shows up it seems like it's nearly impossible for it to trend less amped.

I kind of agree. Especially in a situation like this id rather the gradient be south of us. 

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

I'm gonna sound like KPitt but once a cutter shows up it seems like it's nearly impossible for it to trend less amped.

Even if this showed us being in great shape 24 hours out, I would fully expect a system like this to have P-Type issues 50-100 miles further north than modeled.

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1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

IMHO our shot was two weeks ago. Usually we don’t get two legit opportunities in one season. 
The last thread the needle success was Feb 2012, that was less juiced than this one is looking though. 

Agreed. It was such a shame to waste that potential. It was a decent storm but honestly pretty run of the mill that for many of us was no more than an advisory level event.

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