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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

This looks likes a classic east coast storm set up. Definitely will track it but every model is locked in on basically New England. Euro and it's ensembles are lock step with each other and both show huge hits. Should be a crazy storm if it panned out like the Euro showed. 959mb low with 3 ft of snow would cripple them. Insane

I agree. I would love for this to shift and have us in the game but the ensembles do look pretty locked in to a late blooming evolution which would pummel New England. Even most of the MA except for the coast looks to miss out on this one. Looks like a classic for CT/MA that could rival some of their 2015 Blizzards in that snow blitz that year. I've always told my wife I would love to chase one of these up near Boston to experience a true Noreaster. This would be one I would be fairly comfortable locking in plans early to chase with all the major models agreeing that NE is in the crosshairs. 

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10 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

Not that it wasn't really expected but the weekend storm looks dead. It has shifted almost too far east for even the 95 corridor.

Yeah, baring some huge unforeseen variable we have no chance at anything from the main storm.

5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Models seem to suggest we could score another couple inches Friday, which would seem to be our last opportunity for snow before the pattern flips next week, which I’m still hopeful is a transient return to warmth.

That's from a northern stream feature that will eventually phase in with the bigger storm that may crush NE. This is where we should put or focus, maybe a nice 1-3 / 2-4 event could be had. After this weekend it does appear the pattern starts to re-shuffle and we will lose our deep winter cold with snow on snow on snow but remains to be seen if its a disaster like December or we can get more of a gradient type pattern with warm and cold days mixed in. Warm ahead of any Midwest storm, then cold for a few days after and maybe time a wave to ride along the boundary, rinse and repeat. I haven't focused much past this weekend though so maybe things have changed.

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Yeah maybe the northern energy trends stronger and we score from that. I've been following the big storm and it's funny seeing the back and forth and the wish casting. Long range looks like the pattern breaks down but I wouldn't mind more of an overrunning pattern where moisture rides along a boundary. These super deep troughs are just tough to score especially in this pattern. 

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1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Yeah maybe the northern energy trends stronger and we score from that. I've been following the big storm and it's funny seeing the back and forth and the wish casting. Long range looks like the pattern breaks down but I wouldn't mind more of an overrunning pattern where moisture rides along a boundary. These super deep troughs are just tough to score especially in this pattern. 

Just hard to see a scenario where we’re not well inside the trough this weekend and perhaps find our way back into subzero territory at some point.

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7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Just hard to see a scenario where we’re not well inside the trough this weekend and perhaps find our way back into subzero territory at some point.

I meant that northern energy that comes down not the whole storm that forms. I could see like 2 or 3 inches from it.

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Also looks like Boston most likely is gonna get nuked this weekend. Idk about 3 foot but strong winds and heavy snow sure look likely.

Yep, but for the rest of the corridor things look precarious. The GFS is basically OTS for anything other than Eastern Mass.

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