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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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39 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

40 and a chance of rain on Wednesday. A garden variety 6-8” event will be almost gone in areas that get any sunshine at all in 3 days.

I don't think so.  It's one day above freezing, and the rain is supposed transition to snow.

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The HRRR each run is trying harder and harder to fill in the dry slot and move it a bit further east.

As always seems to be the case, Pittsburgh is going to be a battleground. Wouldn't be shocked if someone in the SE portion of the county sees 8-10 while the NW corner sees 14-18.

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I think 6-12" is a fine call for now.  There's a slight chance it overperforms locally, but this isn't the most congealed looking precip shield currently and thus accounting for potential threats to the maximum potential.  On a "bust scale" of 1 to 10, I'd probably put this at a 7.  It isn't the cleanest looking setup.  However, in our relatively snow-starved climate for big ones, we take a double-digit potential any day even if it comes with caveats.

Hope for the best as we watch it roll in.

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7 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Not that this won’t be the March super storm of 1993 but I do remember severe weather all over Florida before the storm came up the coast. There have been tornadoes in Florida this morning. Just food for thought 

This is kind of like 93 lite to be honest.

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3 minutes ago, jwilson said:

I think 6-12" is a fine call for now.  There's a slight chance it overperforms locally, but this isn't the most congealed looking precip shield currently and thus accounting for potential threats to the maximum potential.  On a "bust scale" of 1 to 10, I'd probably put this at a 7.  It isn't the cleanest looking setup.  However, in our relatively snow-starved climate for big ones, we take a double-digit potential any day even if it comes with caveats.

Hope for the best as we watch it roll in.

Buzzkill :lol:

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1 hour ago, southpark said:

I think things trend better for us. These model runs seem to want to bring it a little further east.

That’s my take, GFS / GEM both looked to have ticked a little bit east granted their usefulness is less this close in but if we see an agreement that we get a slightly east track / faster transfer we might be in business. It’s almost time to start watching the radar. :snowing:

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4 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Fast start is key. Some guidance show 30-35 dgz returns with the initial wave this evening. 

Never will forget 2/5/2010 and the initial slug moving in with 1-2 inch per hour rates and yellows popping up all over the radar.

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It has some similarities for sure, but nowhere near the strength. I still like jwilisons analogy as a clipper going as March 93 for Halloween.
That 93 storm was a storm that we may never see again. That storm was like a wintertime hurricane. We were under a very rare blizzard warning.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Never will forget 2/5/2010 and the initial slug moving in with 1-2 inch per hour rates and yellows popping up all over the radar.

I was driving home from st Vincent that evening. Heaviest rates I’ve personally ever seen. I remember getting home and checking the nam on the old ncep maps and we were in the light blue (0.75-1.00) for 6 hour precip. 

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2 minutes ago, dj3 said:

I was driving home from st Vincent that evening. Heaviest rates I’ve personally ever seen. I remember getting home and checking the nam on the old ncep maps and we were in the light blue (0.75-1.00) for 6 hour precip. 

Was such a fine snow too. Just piled up. 

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