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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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That other low pressure reflection meandering in central west virginia probably doesn't help with the dryslot. I'll write it off to bad luck if we get the models spot on with that dry slot from 100 hours out. 

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39 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Mesoscale modes aren’t going to do great with mesoscale features at hour 84

I agree, that is probably overdone at this point but that feature is on all models. I've been thinking now I'd rather the storm slip SE and sweat the edge of the deform band and have that slide into central pa.

It would be cruel and unusual punishment if we finally get a good overall track but end up with 3 inches while areas 75 miles either direction get a foot lol

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8 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I agree, that is probably overdone at this point but that feature is on all models. I've been thinking now I'd rather the storm slip SE and sweat the edge of the deform band and have that slide into central pa.

It would be cruel and unusual punishment if we finally get a good overall track but end up with 3 inches while areas 75 miles either direction get a foot lol

I’d call it typical 

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5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

GFS is still about a foot.  Looks weird though as the whole storm seems rather dry/sparse.

Yeah, how likely is it really that we’ll get those insane rates? If nothing else, the 18z runs so far can at least make it easier to take the NAM with a grain of salt.

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48 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

RGEM is solid. 9” at PIT and still good rates through the end of the run.

GFS still carrying a foot plus at PIT with 18” as close as HLG.

Rgem would be a huge hit if it went out further I think. I like gfs and Canadian precip swath better than the spotty crap the Nam threw out there. This is a pretty dynamic system you’d think someone is getting really good rates 

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12 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Rgem would be a huge hit if it went out further I think. I like gfs and Canadian precip swath better than the spotty crap the Nam threw out there. This is a pretty dynamic system you’d think someone is getting really good rates 

Oh yeah, it looks massive.

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39 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Personally, I am rooting for the 18z RGEM solution to verify.

RGEM puts down about 10" in 7 hours, give or take.  If that precip shield maintained integrity, with another six to eight hours of snow, you'd be approaching the two foot mark.  The frontogenic forcing is off the charts.  Certainly fun to look at.

Whomever gets under the CCB in this will definitely win big.  Think back to last December and that's why many places in the PIT area hit close to a foot.

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Ehhhhh. Next frames give is that weird lack of precip. Absolutely perfect track buy dry slotting the whole time. 
 

It would be odd as hell as presented.

Yep dry slotted again with perfect track lol. 

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Just now, Rd9108 said:

I seriously wouldn't fret about a dryslot this far out but that's just my opinion.

Especially since it seems the euro is the only model really showing this. The NAM dry slots us because it’s too far west. I don’t think this is even a dryslot….it looks like the “halfacanes” people talk about 

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1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

I seriously wouldn't fret about a dryslot this far out but that's just my opinion.

Yea I agree. Like I said before it locks into that from this far out tip your cap. 

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