Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Both NAMs were very underwhelming. No real winners except far eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 NAMs tell me I'm very wrong. Oh well just enjoy whatever falls and realize that it will be gone by Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 GFS looks like it’s going to be pretty spectacular. edit: not as good as I thought but still a solid 4-6 inch event. That would be pretty acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3 hours ago, TimB said: Not convinced we’re getting 4 either but it is what it is. On to thunderstorm season, then months of it being 88 and miserably humid while Syracuse gets to 95. You can have it. I find Syracuse to be absolutely ridiculous and a hell furnace of disgusting air that heats when an animal farts from one of the higher hills to the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You can have it. I find Syracuse to be absolutely ridiculous and a hell furnace of disgusting air that heats when an animal farts from one of the higher hills to the south. I’m quite happy to have a smaller chance (but not no chance) at gigantic winter storms for not having the hellacious heat in the summer. The only better place for the combination is north of the I-80 snow belt in NWPA, but it has many other drawbacks even if the weather is going for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 We are getting 4-6 inches and most of it will fall between 2:00 am and 9:00 am. Then snow showers after that accumulating an additional inch or so off and on during the afternoon. MY Final Call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, north pgh said: We are getting 4-6 inches and most of it will fall between 2:00 am and 9:00 am. Then snow showers after that accumulating an additional inch or so off and on during the afternoon. MY Final Call. I like it. I'm calling for an overperformer since I'm at work all day today. Regardless this was never really gonna be a 12+ event. The max for this storm was really more so 8 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 39 minutes ago, north pgh said: We are getting 4-6 inches and most of it will fall between 2:00 am and 9:00 am. Then snow showers after that accumulating an additional inch or so off and on during the afternoon. MY Final Call. I like it. We sometimes make a late comeback with these types of set ups. Progressive nature though might hurt getting the top end. I love when it snows at daybreak and you transition from watching street lights to just watching it snow - so hopefully it’s ripping still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Sure enough, just like the 12z model suite, NWS has made a slight adjustment for the better: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB said: Sure enough, just like the 12z model suite, NWS has made a slight adjustment for the better: Euro definitely looks better with a possibility of 4-6. I think MOST would be happy with this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z long range HRRR that shows the whole storm I would guess should look better than 12z. The last few hourly runs have trended up through hour 18. Edit: it’s keeping hope alive for a high end advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just was out walking the dog in shorts-hard to believe it’s going to be 20 degrees a day from now with snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 32 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Euro definitely looks better with a possibility of 4-6. I think MOST would be happy with this. I’d be cool with it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Let’s lock in that HRRR run. 5-7 inches and warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, TimB said: 18z long range HRRR that shows the whole storm I would guess should look better than 12z. The last few hourly runs have trended up through hour 18. Edit: it’s keeping hope alive for a high end advisory event. All modeling looks pretty good for a 4-5" snow now. The 12z Euro had over 5" with 10:1 ratios - would definitely support 6,7" with actual ratios if that plays out correctly. The 12z UKMet was nearly 4" at 10:1, would again be a bit more than that with ratios. All seem to be roughly in line with the GFS and Canadian. The only real holdout at 12z was the NAM 3K - which taken literally threw up a 2.2" in downtown Pittsburgh. But it looks like it's overdosing on microscale effects (topography, etc.). If you look closely, it has 4-5 inches in far western Allegheny out towards the airport. Not really realistic for the airport to double the city's total with this setup IMO. Looks like it's just overdoing the microscale effects, and smoothed out a bit would be a 3-5" storm areawide. Which is in line with what the 12Z NAM12K was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: All modeling looks pretty good for a 4-5" snow now. The 12z Euro had over 5" with 10:1 ratios - would definitely support 6,7" with actual ratios if that plays out correctly. The 12z UKMet was nearly 4" at 10:1, would again be a bit more than that with ratios. All seem to be roughly in line with the GFS and Canadian. The only real holdout at 12z was the NAM 3K - which taken literally threw up a 2.2" in downtown Pittsburgh. But it looks like it's overdosing on microscale effects (topography, etc.). If you look closely, it has 4-5 inches in far western Allegheny out towards the airport. Not really realistic for the airport to double the city's total with this setup IMO. Looks like it's just overdoing the microscale effects, and smoothed out a bit would be a 3-5" storm areawide. The only thing I can think of that would make the airport significantly higher than the city’s totals in this case is UHI. There is a lot of sun today and a transition from very warm to cold, with the bulk of the snow falling early in that transition period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 I’ll take 4-6” all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 HRRR still trending upward: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Solid AFD from the NWS breaking down the storm. Might have to nap earlier to stay up for the best rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Solid AFD from the NWS breaking down the storm. Might have to nap earlier to stay up for the best rates. Just don’t sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 It's weird how most of the modeling has us getting just as much, if not more, than Central PA. Yet those areas are under a warning, and we are under an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: It's weird how most of the modeling has us getting just as much, if not more, than Central PA. Yet those areas are under a warning, and we are under an advisory. Short range models are really locking in on a more robust solution and frankly are better at this range than global Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Question? Is this going to start off as a paste bomb then transition go better rates and snow growth? Temps are going to crash pretty hard especially for this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Enjoy, Pittsburgh crew! The zone that has been getting screwed all winter...from you guys to up here in Syracuse and towards Burlington look to get the "jackpot" this time. It stinks that we get it in mid March and it will melt quickly...but hey, snow is snow. Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Enjoy, Pittsburgh crew! The zone that has been getting screwed all winter...from you guys to up here in Syracuse and towards Burlington look to get the "jackpot" this time. It stinks that we get it in mid March and it will melt quickly...but hey, snow is snow. Enjoy! Are we going to “sizzle” as you would say? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: It's weird how most of the modeling has us getting just as much, if not more, than Central PA. Yet those areas are under a warning, and we are under an advisory. Some of those zones have different criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 My temp has dropped from 59 to 45 last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now