Burghblizz Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Some thoughts from a PGH met on another forum I would be very cautious with the current GFS solution for a couple reasons: 1) It is more than a day faster with this follow up wave compared to all other guidance, which fits into its bias of being way too progressive with disturbances. 2) It does not do a good job at all with handling the impact of low-level cold. Euro looking good, so good to have a model without a SE bias on board.. Going to take some threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Oh God. Don't drag me in yet. Still too far, lol. The trends look positive though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Oh God. Don't drag me in yet. Still too far, lol. The trends look positive though. The bulk of the rest is north. If GFS rejoins south by tonight, I’ll be dragged in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The GFS at the end of the run is pure "Goofus" territory. A 36-hour ice storm for VA, NC, and SC. That glorified frontal passage on Friday looks "meh" to me right now. The setup doesn't typically result in deep snow drifts. We'll see if anything changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 gfs and euro are worlds apart right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 16 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: gfs and euro are worlds apart right now. Surprise you? Until like a day ago they weren’t even close on the NE blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 TWC showing 4-6” near the airport Thursday night into Friday (see attached screenshot). Looks like they think this is 1-3, 2-4 from the city south. 4-6 in the northern part of the metro, with 6-10 further north towards I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Am I the only one who wants a quick warm up so I can wash my car off? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 48 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Am I the only one who wants a quick warm up so I can wash my car off? Yes, you are, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Yes, you are, lol. Just give me like half a day of 40 degrees. That's all I ask and then we can track another nice 8-12 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Euro and EPS are south and EPS is way south, gfs is way north. Time for some fun tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The month of February looks brutal and snowy for our area until at least week 3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 If I had to make a call right now I'd say this will primarily be rain except for the back edge Thursday night into Friday. Euro op and Ukmet really the only 2 that show the front getting far enough South to put us on the cold side as the second wave ride up the boundary. The Euro ENS mean looks more like the GFS. Still far enough out to see a change though just how it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 So I guess it all depends on where that Arctic high is. If it pushes the ridge up then we rain and mix and maybe some snow. If it stays further north and rides above us then the heights are lower and the boundary is lower. I think we see a few inches from the backside but I don't think we jackpot. Still time to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Nice outside this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 CMC would be a nightmare. It shows hours upon hours of mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: CMC would be a nightmare. It shows hours upon hours of mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, north pgh said: Taken literally, I’m like 20 miles from the foot line, but yeah, not a fan of that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: Taken literally, I’m like 20 miles from the foot line, but yeah, not a fan of that look. It never actually plays out like when the snowfall algorithms show those razor thin cutoffs like that in these types of setups. What would probably actually happen is a couple to a few inches of snowfall around the Pittsburgh to like 6, 7, 8, maybe 9 inches of snow around I-80. I suspect a lot of that along the southern edge of the heavy snowfall is actually slop - i.e., mixed sleet and freezing rain. The warm air aloft always makes it further north than expected. So even the 10:1 map is probably inflated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 UK south AF. Much better look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The trend is not our friend. The Euro looks like gfs and cmc now. Give me cold rain I'll pass on a massive ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Unless I see something change this one is dead What is truly amazing is the euro went from the most southeast to the most NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: The trend is not our friend. The Euro looks like gfs and cmc now. Give me cold rain I'll pass on a massive ice storm. Color me shocked, GFS never showed us in a good spot, Euro slowly moved same way. At least you won't have to worry about washing your car with 1+ inches of rain. The overall look the first 2 weeks of Feb has degraded some vs the broad cold trough we saw a few days ago on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Unless I see something change this one is dead What is truly amazing is the euro went from the most southeast to the most NW. Gfs correct again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, dj3 said: Gfs correct again? I'm gonna sound like KPitt but once a cutter shows up it seems like it's nearly impossible for it to trend less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 IMHO our shot was two weeks ago. Usually we don’t get two legit opportunities in one season. The last thread the needle success was Feb 2012, that was less juiced than this one is looking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 39 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I'm gonna sound like KPitt but once a cutter shows up it seems like it's nearly impossible for it to trend less amped. I kind of agree. Especially in a situation like this id rather the gradient be south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: I'm gonna sound like KPitt but once a cutter shows up it seems like it's nearly impossible for it to trend less amped. Even if this showed us being in great shape 24 hours out, I would fully expect a system like this to have P-Type issues 50-100 miles further north than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said: IMHO our shot was two weeks ago. Usually we don’t get two legit opportunities in one season. The last thread the needle success was Feb 2012, that was less juiced than this one is looking though. Agreed. It was such a shame to waste that potential. It was a decent storm but honestly pretty run of the mill that for many of us was no more than an advisory level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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