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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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6-11 inches for Chautuaqua ridgeline

NYZ019-252000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0008.211126T0600Z-211127T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
649 AM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to
  11 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Northwest winds gusting as high
  as 40 mph Friday afternoon and evening.

* WHERE...Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Madison and Cortland
  counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Friday to 9 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures start off in the low to mid
  30s Friday morning, before falling into the upper 20s Friday
  evening, then low to mid 20s overnight.
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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

High ratio lake effect snow on a northerly flow..Here today, gone tomorrow lol

It's also a term used by the coasties when sneering at our abundant snowfall.  Or when i get momentarily disgusted with another LES band that mocks me by being a few miles north, or west, or south. Which is often.  ;)

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So looking at the hrrr more in detail, we should have some steady rain starting early in the morning with temps in the upper 30s to around 40, around 10am lower elevations E/SE of Ontario should be flipping, temps still in the mid 30s, by 2ish we should mostly be below freezing, 4-5 pm in the 20s and falling..Hrrr ends precipitation around 1-2 am..So a good 10-12 hours of accumulating snow verbatim..

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2 hours ago, sferic said:

Three houses I own, one in Lynbrook in Nassau County, one in Liberty in Sullivan County and one now in Cicero (Ononangda County.)

 

After T day turkey in Liberty later heading for Cicero this evening since LES kicking in. Kitchen update being redone so just a mini fridge and mini microwave there

 

Takeout 1-2 miles away, hope my AWD SVU will handle roads up there well but I heard with 3-6 inches it shouldn't be too bad to go out ( hope so)

 

Learning about the sweets pots of where heavier snows fall, almost like the Heavier snows for NYC are usually to the North and West of the city

 

Jeff

 

Hey, Jeff! They take fantastic care of the roads here. Something I found amusing when I first moved here is how almost everybody stakes their driveways so the plows don't destroy their yards. It also lead to the excitement of my first winter knowing that "there is enough snow here to actually need stakes so you can find your driveway." 

Despite the past couple Winters being sort of disappointing, there have still been weeks where having the stakes have helped.

The sweet spots vary based on wind direction and speed. Some Winters are better for different areas depending on the pattern and if the same flow keeps setting up. Our area of the county from Baldwinsville to Clay to Cicero does the best in general... especially since we can get the remnants of strong Westerly bands as they shift on a WNW flow. We do the best from Multi-lake connections (when Huron and Georgian Bay add extra juice) and from lake enhanced snows when Lows sit off the New England coast. Alberta clippers can add fun as well. These have all been generally lacking though the past couple years.

Hopefully that "pattern" breaks this year. Regardless, you will find it much more snowy here than New York City!

 

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3 hours ago, sferic said:

Three houses I own, one in Lynbrook in Nassau County, one in Liberty in Sullivan County and one now in Cicero (Ononangda County.)

 

After T day turkey in Liberty later heading for Cicero this evening since LES kicking in. Kitchen update being redone so just a mini fridge and mini microwave there

 

Takeout 1-2 miles away, hope my AWD SVU will handle roads up there well but I heard with 3-6 inches it shouldn't be too bad to go out ( hope so)

 

Learning about the sweets pots of where heavier snows fall, almost like the Heavier snows for NYC are usually to the North and West of the city

 

Jeff

 

I forgot to mention that by far the most frustrating thing about living in this area if you're a cold weather person is the southerly winds that torch Syracuse. See today for example...39 degrees....the second the wind shifted from the south, there is a 5 degree...10 degree spike in temps. Drives me bonkers. I hate having the mountains directly to the south, as they lead to downsloping. If there's a southerly wind, you can almost guarantee Syracuse becomes the sizzle capital of Upstate New York. (As is the case today.)

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Matt,

 

Any worse then on Long Island winds going from Northeast to Southeast?

Hopefully I'll see 6 inches in Cicero between Late tonight and Saturday afternoon when I leave

 

I have cameras mounted so I can always "see" the weather from Cicero wherever i am and same with two other houses

 

Now do I dare go into outdoor hot tub owners left ( brand new).

 

Heard it's awesome but can't imagine walking out from it

 

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1 minute ago, sferic said:

Matt,

 

Any worse then on Long Island winds going from Northeast to Southeast?

Hopefully I'll see 6 inches in Cicero between Late tonight and Saturday afternoon when I leave

 

I have cameras mounted so I can always "see" the weather from Cicero wherever i am and same with two other houses

 

Now do I dare go into outdoor hot tub owners left ( brand new).

 

Heard it's awesome but can't imagine walking out from it

 

There's a couple guys on here that enjoy the hot tub while it's snowing outside. I've done it before... it's relaxing and then exhilarating. It's part of your hazing process to life in the Great Lakes...lol

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

There's a couple guys on here that enjoy the hot tub while it's snowing outside. I've done it before... it's relaxing and then exhilarating. It's part of your hazing process to life in the Great Lakes...lol

Gonna be fun, have the driveway markers for snow blowing, not plowing. $385 for the season

 

I have a problem with lawn care

 

$1,800 for lawn cuts ( 27  cuts or so) and weed killer and grass seed

 

But for Landscaping they want $2,500 to trim  hedges , bushes, plants etc, then another 1200 each for spring cleanup and fall cleanup

 

I pay $1,500 for EVERYTHING on Long Island and in the Catkskills I cut my own grass

 

Recommendations taken happily

 

 

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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Localized higher totals are
  possible. The greatest totals expected on the Tug Hill Plateau.
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.
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Model soundings suggesting that most of the lake-induced
convective depth will be within the favored dendritic growth
zone which will help to improve snow ratios with time as we move
through the day Friday. The period of most organized lake snows
is expected to be during the day Friday and into early evening
as background synoptic moisture interact with increasing lake
processes.

Snowfall totals should easily exceed 6 inches in favored higher
terrain areas east/southeast of the lakes with localized amounts
near a foot quite possible, particularly along the Chautauqua Ridge
where additional enhancement to snowfall totals is expected for the
Chautauqua Ridge with most mesoscale guidance suggesting an upstream
connection to Lake Huron.

With enhanced amounts expected off Lake Erie will issue a Lake
Effect Snow Warning for Chautauqua county with the highest amounts
focused along the Chautauqua Ridge. Winter Weather advisories will
be issued for Southern Erie and Cattaraugus counties. The highest
amounts here will be across the higher terrain, and it is not
out of the question that far southern portions of Erie and
northwest portions of Cattaraugus county could see localized
amounts near a foot as well.

Without the help of an upstream connection for Lake Ontario
amounts should be a bit lower than off Lake Erie, but not by
much. Winter weather advisories will be issued for the Tug Hill
area east of Lake Ontario, then curving down through northern
Cayuga and Wayne counties. The heaviest amounts will be focused
on the Tug Hill, localized amounts near a foot could also occur
depending on how long favorable upslope flow occurs before the
flow turn more northwesterly.

Outside of the lake areas, Friday will be windy with gusty
westerly winds of 30-40 mph that will generate wind chill values
in the teens and lower 20s that will be accompanied by some
snow showers that could accumulate up to an inch or two. Blowing
snow will create visibility issues at times, especially for
areas where bursts of heavier snow occur and lake effect areas.
Wind gusts could be locally enhanced along the higher terrain
and closer to the Lake Ontario shoreline.
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As I suggested, earlier in the week, this looks more and more like an orographic event. I still like the ridge for over a foot. The radar is going to be fun to watch.  I fear anyone along the lake plain will be disappointed. The MESO models continue to trim expectations for the Rochester area. 
Syracuse and especially the hills just south are still the wild card in my mind. 
Anyway, happy Thanksgiving you all. It’s been a rough year for me but I’m amazed at how much I still have to be thankful for. image.thumb.png.8683dd6af62294f944db6d8e3fa8762f.png

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5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

There's a couple guys on here that enjoy the hot tub while it's snowing outside. I've done it before... it's relaxing and then exhilarating. It's part of your hazing process to life in the Great Lakes...lol

Hot tub in the snow is ideal. Get yourself some heat traks if you don’t wanna walk through the snow. 

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16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Not the trend anyone hoped for

image.thumb.png.c9a5e355d17d4d64fd347b299f71354e.png

Are you surprised? Higher elevations have snow this morning. The maritimes of Upstate? Nassomuch....Lake effect looks way less impressive. My guess is strong winds will shred lake effect as well. Windy days are rarely a good thing for LES.

I am actually glad I am in Tennessee today so I don't experience a disappointment. Hoping to come home to snow on the ground Sunday. 

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5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

2" this morning in Cazanovia. Looks like I might jackpot.. I think ratios go way up overnight tonight so I'm thinking the higher elevations East Southeast of Syracuse may end up with 10 to 12" of snow by noon tomorrow.   Lower elevations look to get 4 to 8".

Congrats and enjoy! I really need to move to a higher elevation...

But you might want to check on the spelling of your community. ;)

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2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I’m not sure what expectations are for this. Channel 9 has been downplaying this event right along forecasting 1-3 inches total on the lake plain. I still have to get outdoor decorations up so I really don’t want to get buried yet. 

They ALWAYS downplay snow totals. But, it's the better route to go with how things have set up the past couple years. Plus, strong winds rarely allow for good LES, especially closer to the lake as everything gets blown overhead and way inland.

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19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I saw that. Seriously, the Cuse manufactures its own heat.

The Sizzle will not be denied!   Heading down to NYC area to visit relatives for a couple days so I'll miss tonight's snowfall here. It'll probably be the bomb since myself and you, the Sizzle King, will both be out of area. ;)

Edit: flakes are starting to fall here.

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