BGM Blizzard Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: I like it. Yeah you're in the best place of any of us for a solution like the Euro. A wave tracking west of the apps up into western PA is gonna result in sloppy mix for most everyone here. We need that wave to stay south and redevelop off the coast earlier for anyone outside the North Country and E NY to get any decent snow. Be nice if that HP was centered in Quebec instead of north central Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 This would be our best bet for significant accumulating snow. Too bad its a week out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 GFS with another bump north, trolls Matt.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 We take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Could be. Wouldn’t shock anyone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 For Matt’s eyes only 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 For all my Buffalo peeps the legendary Don Paul is on WIVB the next couple days snd he have a sneak peek at what the longer range models are showing for the Xmas timeframe and beyond…in his words the low chance of a white Xmas is a little better with the upcoming changes, but he really feels it could get pretty downright cold towards the new year. If you know him like many of us do, he’s not a hype man. This is great news 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Could be. Wouldn’t shock anyone Lock it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 22 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Could be. Wouldn’t shock anyone Sizzlecuse 5 degrees above forecasted, in the mid 50s, warmest in the state, and a low heading right towards us on Saturday. All on a typical winter's day here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 26 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Sizzlecuse 5 degrees above forecasted, in the mid 50s, warmest in the state, and a low heading right towards us on Saturday. All on a typical winter's day here... Mid Atlantic baby!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: For all my Buffalo peeps the legendary Don Paul is on WIVB the next couple days snd he have a sneak peek at what the longer range models are showing for the Xmas timeframe and beyond…in his words the low chance of a white Xmas is a little better with the upcoming changes, but he really feels it could get pretty downright cold towards the new year. If you know him like many of us do, he’s not a hype man. This is great news I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m going 75 with a passing rain shower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Just for fun. Like my all my Christmas memories. Breezy, warm May like day. in all honesty, we have a lot too WATCH. Christmas probably doesn’t fall into that but it’s a looong time out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Kbgm Little change. Models in a little better agreement on the Friday night into Saturday system. With the fast flow surface development doesn`t get going. For now kept precipitation rain or snow but a small chance of mixed precipitation to start. Most of this event will be rain Saturday morning. Colder air comes in behind this with a weak lake effect event Saturday night into Sunday. The next system comes in Monday on the GFS and Canadian but the Euro has high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Caving to the Euro again. Next. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 49 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Caving to the Euro again. Next. Just awful. Yay, more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Canadian and Ukie (kiiiind of) look similar to 12Z Euro. Perhaps some Thruway snowfall on Saturday, but not holding my breath. The GFS continues making its bipolar leaps all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 6z GFS is very nice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 It’s baaacck!!! All locations surrounding KBUF are 6 to 7 degrees colder this morning! KBUF is at 36 and all surrounding sites are in the upper 20’s…the one constant? Full sun all day yesterday… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Crap…the GFS just gave us not one, not two but 3 snow events the next 3 systems…well that’s too good to be true…toss..: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Looks like the 12z euro also has the event for Saturday but a little less impactful. What is also has us wall to wall cold from that system to the end of its run, same as the GFS…maybe a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Serious clownage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Serious clownage I see no issues. Oh boy if that miraculously verified the NYC sub would implode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Gefs says what snow? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gefs says what snow? Lol These show a common issue we've had the past several winters. It's either weak and strung out and goes farther south, or if it gets just a little bit of strength, it cuts and goes north. Whiff or rain. Ugly Pacific problems. Have a good morning, all! Hopefully we'll be tracking and seeing legit winter events starting this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Gefs says what snow? Lol Yeah that looks much more realistic than these OP snowfall outputs. The pre-storm airmass is stale/warm and with no strong HP to the north and a LP wave (albeit weak) riding up west of the mtns into PA, I don't see snow being a dominant precip hardly anywhere, and those that start as snow probably switch to taint and/or rain pretty quick outside of maybe the North Country and parts of E NY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah that looks much more realistic than these OP snowfall outputs. The pre-storm airmass is stale/warm and with no cold HP to the north and a LP wave (albeit weak) riding up west of the mtns into PA, I don't see snow being a dominant precip hardly anywhere, and those that start as snow probably switch to taint and/or rain pretty quick outside of maybe the North Country and parts of E NY. Yep. This is the probably how it goes down. It’ll want to go right into Jamestown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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