Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[TugHillMatt]

Lol. This place is such a furnace. Check out that temp. rise before the rain. Whatever it can do to sizzle for the day... Southern Wind Sizzle

 

[Ericjcrash]

LR GFS is cold cold. 

[wolfie09]

Through HR78 the euro is about 3 MB stronger and a little west..

[wolfie09]

[wolfie09]

Some improvements.

[wolfie09]

These warm tongues need to be watched if the GFS is on to something, with the ULLs going right over the area..

[BGM Blizzard]

2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

HP to the north. Good track. It’s all coming together here. I’d still be concerned with a more nw track. 

Yeah don't take the bait. Time and time again we get lured by the models with these west of the mtn tracking systems only to end up disappointed as a result of the wave tracking too far nw and shoving warm air up our arse. For anyone along/west of 81 or along/south of 90, I wouldn't expect more than an inch of slop.

 

[Thinksnow18]

54 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

These warm tongues need to be watched if the GFS is on to something, with the ULLs going right over the area..

Looks hood for the Niagara Frontier east to Rochester…Syracuse looks a bit dicier 

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Put down, and slowly step away from the crack pipe!

These big events happen every 5-6 years. 2001, 2007, 2010, 2014. We're well overdue for a big time event. Its coming in January. 

[BuffaloWeather]

GEFS put our area into the battleground for synoptic systems. The question will be is there enough cold air. Lots of cutter potential but some storm potential too. Looks like slightly above average temps for next 2 weeks. 

[BuffaloWeather]

December

BUF: +5.3
ROC: +3.6
WAT: +5.3
SYR: +6.9

Lake Erie at 44 degrees. 5 degrees above normal. 

[TugHillMatt]

To me, that looks like more of the primaries working their way west of the Apps, then hitting confluence and weakening, and possibly secondaries developing off the east coast. Very similar to the winter pattern we have been stuck in. With Canada being colder than it has been in similar patterns as if late, hopefully we can tap into that...not too much though or it will be suppressed.

So much thread the needle stuff!!!

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

December

BUF: +5.3
ROC: +3.6
WAT: +5.3
SYR: +6.9

Lake Erie at 44 degrees. 5 degrees above normal. 

Shakes head.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

To me, that looks like more of the primaries working their way west of the Apps, then hitting confluence and weakening, and possibly secondaries developing off the east coast. Very similar to the winter pattern we have been stuck in. With Canada being colder than it has been in similar patterns as if late, hopefully we can tap into that...not too much though or it will be suppressed.

So much thread the needle stuff!!!

Yeah Millers Bs but it depends on where that blocking sets up, could be cutters too if too far east with blocking. 

[wolfie09]

In terms of sensible weather, the majority of Friday night will be
dry, with a chance of some light precipitation toward Saturday
morning near the Pennsylvania state line. Though there still remains
some discrepancies among the latest guidance, model soundings
indicate the potential for some freezing rain on the northern end of
the main precipitation shield, mainly in the Southern Tier where
thermal profiles look best.

Otherwise, as the precipitation shield overspreads the area from
southwest to northeast, expect precip to start out as mainly snow,
then changing over to a wintery mix followed by mostly rain. Precip
will then change back to mostly snow in the evening as temperatures
fall after sunset. There may be a small period of more moderate
snowfall on the northern edge of the system before the changeover to
a wintery mix. The far North Country may remain cold enough during
the day to support all snow. In general, the greater QPF will likely
be found from the Southern Tier into Central NY where stronger
frontogenesis lies to the north of the surface wave track. Daytime
highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 30s, with upper 20s to
low 30s east of Lake Ontario.

[wolfie09]

BL looks fine on both the GFS and Euro for 18z and 0z..(in-between hours could get a little dicey lol)

[wolfie09]

NWS clearly going warmer than the images I posted above, 18z Saturday..

Probably just factoring in new climo, take the model output, add 3°-5° and you have yourself a good forecast lol

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

NWS clearly going warmer than the images I posted above, 18z Saturday..

Probably just factoring in new climo, take the model output, add 3°-5° and you have yourself a good forecast lol

I’m curious why they’re going higher? A NE wind does not preclude warmer air 

[Ericjcrash]

Negatively NAMed.

[Thinksnow18]

All snow thruway north 18z

[rochesterdave]

Ugly lol. Tell me you’re surprised 

[CNY_WX]

Another round of severe weather this time over Iowa and the upper Midwest. Storms are moving at 90 mph!

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Another round of severe weather this time over Iowa and the upper Midwest. Storms are moving at 90 mph!

That line is just insane. Already a gust to 94 mph

[CNY_WX]

Tornado warning in the Omaha, Nebraska area.

Tornado Warning

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
419 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

IAC129-152245-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-211215T2245Z/
Mills IA-
419 PM CST Wed Dec 15 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
MILLS COUNTY...

At 418 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Glenwood, or 21 miles southeast of Omaha, moving
northeast at 85 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Mills County, including the following locations... Silver
City and Henderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.

[BuffaloWeather]

There is no way that tornado wasn't an EF5

[BGM Blizzard]

46 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Ugly lol. Tell me you’re surprised 

While it is the long range NAM, it's usually pretty good inside 36-48 when it comes to estimating how far north warm layers and resulting mix lines will advance in these setups IMO. 

[wolfie09]

GFS held serve , same with the rgem which is more of a southern solution..Icon went warmer and we know what the NAM showed lol

[Thinksnow18]

28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is no way that tornado wasn't an EF5

Agree. What would the destruction need to be for that to verify?

[BuffaloWeather]

3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Agree. What would the destruction need to be for that to verify?

I've seen like 100 slabs so not sure why it isnt ef5.

[rochesterdave]

35 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There is no way that tornado wasn't an EF5

I always thought it looked like a 4. Some structures survived and vehicles were recognizable. 5’s leave nothing but engine blocks and twisted frames. Just my thoughts. Not that it matters for humans.