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Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27


ineedsnow
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Models showing the potential for a major Noreaster discuss..

1) heavy rain and potential for urban and street flooding given ample moisture and lift (low level jet of 60-70 kts at 925 mb!). Ensemble means are painting a widespread 3-5 inches of rain through Wednesday evening while some deterministic runs show as much as 8-10 inches. Though widespread amounts of this magnitude are unlikely, it is a concerning signal/trend, and urban/small stream flooding is a concern. The ECMWF probability of 4 inches of rain is 70-80%! (and 30-60% chance of that much within 24 hours). One additional concern this time of year is fallen leaves clogging storm drains, exacerbating street flooding.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You forgot the fun part

damaging winds, thanks to that same low level jet, and aided by
nearly fully leafed trees. BUFKIT soundings indicate potential for
winds of nearly 70 kts at the top of the mixed layer Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

How high up is the top of the mixed layer?

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There is a tropical low off the east coast right now . Nhc gives it a 10 percent chance of developing. This interacts with the incoming low to enhance the rainfall in the east.

I think its pretty much a lock for heavy rain.. How much who knows yet hopefully 12z gives us a idea

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46 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I think its pretty much a lock for heavy rain.. How much who knows yet hopefully 12z gives us a idea

I’m really just jumping into tracking this, but it looks like low placement is still one of the wildcards. It keeps jumping around from cycle to cycle.

Also have to say I’m pretty surprised at those phase charts. The NHC lemon doesn’t really excite me, but a warm core-ish system would certainly increase confidence in a higher end rainfall potential IMO.

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2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

even inland areas get it good

Yeah decent rains, but I think there is going to be a coastal front and likely much cooler air inland. That limits gusts. You’d want this to sling to our west for stronger winds inland. Think 2017 and even 2019 for example.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah decent rains, but I think there is going to be a coastal front and likely much cooler air inland. That limits gusts. You’d want this to sling to our west for stronger winds inland. Think 2017 and even 2019 for example.

ya true 50 more miles would be good.. but I wouldnt mind that run now :)

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