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NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
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Below I’ve got the accumulations profile I found this morning at Bolton.  What I found is definitely more than what they’ve got in their snow report, but they did indicate they had trouble with blowing at their stake.  It’s possible my measurements were getting down into existing snowpack, but it seems like that should have been consolidated from recent temperatures.  The backside upslope snow was also coming down while I was out there today, so that likely added a bit to the totals.

 

340’:  4”

1,000’:  5”

1,500’:  7”

2,000”: 10-12”

2,500’: 13-14”

3,000’: 14-16”

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41 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 7.1” Snow/1.09” L.E.

 

This morning’s snow certainly seemed like upslope precipitation, and the radar had that look.  The density speaks to its nature, so Coastal got the treble he needed.  We’re partly cloudy with some flurries out there now, so if this storm is over, we certainly ended up in the 5-10” range that was in our BTV NWS forecast.  There are some echoes building off to the west on the radar, so we’ll see if they have any precipitation that makes it over this way.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0

Snow Density: 3.3% H2O

Temperature: 27.9 F

Sky: Flurries/Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

I was expecting a little more from you, but as your obs show, that snow had some meat to it. Friends of ours live in Waterbury. Excited to get up there this winter.

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Earlier I sent along the accumulations profile I encountered today in the Bolton Valley area, and I’ve got a few images below to go with a snow update.  As noted, the snow we received around here was generally dense, and it put down a substantial addition to the base on the slopes.  We picked up over an inch of liquid at our site in the valley from this storm, and I’d say the slopes of Bolton easily picked that up as well.  It feels like there’s at least an inch of L.E. at the base elevations, and probably something like two inches of L.E. up high.  Some of the higher elevation snowpack could have come from previous events, but in any case, that’s a substantial amount of L.E. in place.

There were a couple inches of drier upslope snow to finish off this storm cycle, but the bulk of it was that denser snow, and that’s definitely what set the tenor of the skiing.  There were no concerns about hitting anything under the snow on trails without any overt obstacles like large rocks, and any terrain that was smooth up to the level of single black diamond pitch was fine to ski unless it was wind scoured.  In fact, the snow was too dense for skiing any low angle terrain, so you really had to be on moderate to steep terrain or you would be bogged down and just have to straight-line to maintain speed.  Skiing on terrain with the right pitch was quite good though, and you could carve right into the powder and just let the skis surf.

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Didn’t start snowing until about 15 miles out, but by the time I started up 242 at 1000’ it was snowing pretty good.  Here at 1850’ it’s a moderate snow and 15 degrees. Definitely winter out there.  Wasn’t expecting the upslope to still be going tonight.  Tomorrow with less wind should be good out there.

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2 hours ago, mreaves said:

9.5° for the low. I hope we don’t look back in this as the best wintry stretch of the season. 

 

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Cue J-Spin and his stats.

I don’t record temperature stats, but I’d take 20s F and prodigious snowfall all season long over any sort of single digits with respect to “best” wintry weather.  I guess cold temperatures are good for snowmaking, forming ice, etc.  But also remember that if cold temperatures persist too much in the region, they’re going to cool off the Great Lakes quicker and reduce the potential of that moisture source.

In terms of the snow aspect of wintry weather, there really shouldn’t be any fears about this being some sort of anomalous stretch that would be hard to match – the data here say things are proceeding at a very, very… very average pace.  Mean season snowfall at our site through today is 13.8 inches, and we’re currently at 13.6 inches on the season.  Mean snowpack depth here is 3.3 inches, and we’re at 5.0 inches, so in those respects our pace and recent weather seem quite typical.

The usual deterministic caveats apply, but a quick zip through the GFS shows the potential for eight systems in the next couple of weeks, all of which have chances for snow (this is NNE, and we’re heading into December), so it really doesn’t look like we’re simply going to move into a period of benign fall weather.

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16 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I don’t record temperature stats, but I’d take 20s F and prodigious snowfall all season long over any sort of single digits with respect to “best” wintry weather.  I guess cold temperatures are good for snowmaking, forming ice, etc.  But also remember that if cold temperatures persist too much in the region, they’re going to cool off the Great Lakes quicker and reduce the potential of that moisture source.

In terms of the snow aspect of wintry weather, there really shouldn’t be any fears about this being some sort of anomalous stretch that would be hard to match – the data here say things are proceeding at a very, very… very average pace.  Mean season snowfall at our site through today is 13.8 inches, and we’re currently at 13.6 inches on the season.  Mean snowpack depth here is 3.3 inches, and we’re at 5.0 inches, so in those respects our pace and recent weather seem quite typical.

The usual deterministic caveats apply, but a quick zip through the GFS shows the potential for eight systems in the next couple of weeks, all of which have chances for snow (this is NNE, and we’re heading into December), so it really doesn’t look like we’re simply going to move into a period of benign fall weather.

I was just kidding for the most part. But I was thinking the overall feel, not just from a temp standpoint. It’s not likely but I’m still so scarred from 2015-16

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23 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I don’t record temperature stats, but I’d take 20s F and prodigious snowfall all season long over any sort of single digits with respect to “best” wintry weather.  I guess cold temperatures are good for snowmaking, forming ice, etc.  But also remember that if cold temperatures persist too much in the region, they’re going to cool off the Great Lakes quicker and reduce the potential of that moisture source.

In terms of the snow aspect of wintry weather, there really shouldn’t be any fears about this being some sort of anomalous stretch that would be hard to match – the data here say things are proceeding at a very, very… very average pace.  Mean season snowfall at our site through today is 13.8 inches, and we’re currently at 13.6 inches on the season.  Mean snowpack depth here is 3.3 inches, and we’re at 5.0 inches, so in those respects our pace and recent weather seem quite typical.

The usual deterministic caveats apply, but a quick zip through the GFS shows the potential for eight systems in the next couple of weeks, all of which have chances for snow (this is NNE, and we’re heading into December), so it really doesn’t look like we’re simply going to move into a period of benign fall weather.

Teens at night with multiple snow threats.  I’ll take.

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1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

Very winter feel out there.  Great snow making window this week too.  My panic from last week seems to have eased.

 

 

Had a great view your way today in the blue sky.  The entire Green Mtn Spine looks well frosted.

No lift lines that I saw on my three runs but man we need another full top-to-bottom route.  

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And great snowmaking weather as you mentioned!

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On 11/27/2021 at 7:23 AM, klw said:

5.6 inches of paste here.  Do we have the start of our pack for the season?

 

On 11/27/2021 at 8:00 AM, mreaves said:

4” here. Not sure about the pack. A quick glance at the extended forecast shows highs of 40-36-34 at the end of next week. 

I commented on season snowfall and snowpack depth in the previous discussion, but I didn’t mention snowpack start date because I’d been meaning to respond to this discussion.  With close to an inch of liquid down from the this past storm, this could easily be the actual start to the winter snowpack for some valley locations.  Roughly average temperatures and a typical assortment of storms (even with some rain or mixed precipitation) wouldn’t really knock out a snowpack of this scale, especially since the snow is fairly dense and dry right now, and has the potential to absorb some liquid.  Obviously a large enough warm-sector storm could do it, but it would have to be one of those with little to no front side or back side snows.

The current snowpack here started back on the 23rd, which would be about a week ahead of average, but the data say that’s well within one S.D. (15 days), so it’s very typical.  We’re also very close to the mean start date now anyway (Dec 2).

I’d argue the upper mountain snowpack is here to stay at this point based on what I found yesterday at Bolton Valley.  There’s already a couple inches of liquid in there, so it would take a highly anomalous system to melt every last bit of that down.

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