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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Definitely some correlation between warm Octobers and cool Novembers

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This definitely has some legs…the other 2 forums of note are also discussing this very topic and I’m the trend is to be colder by the end of October and then Nov-Dec look colder on average. I would take that.

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I upgraded my John Deere earlier this year after being outgunned by the 44" whopper last December. Last time I upgraded was 2015 and the winter of 2015-16 was the least snowiest on record down here with 3.3" or less every storm and a season total of 30".

So... I predict a bummer winter... atleast for down here.

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4 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Fear not, i'm sure that our usual "SizzleMas" will arrive on schedule.  Even if PV is parked over top of us for months...

Didn’t the area get blitzed on Christmas Day last year? It was like 70 and windy here lol. 

3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

I upgraded my John Deere earlier this year after being outgunned by the 44" whopper last December. Last time I upgraded was 2015 and the winter of 2015-16 was the least snowiest on record down here with 30" total and 3.3" single storm high.

So... I predict a bummer winter... atleast for down here.

What an event that was. I should have chased it lol. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What an event that was. I should have chased it lol. 

Sure was. Never seen anything like it and probably never will again around here. The other day I was looking back at some of my pictures during and after that storm and still can't get over how fast and furious it piled up. 

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55 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

@BGM Blizzard, those last two pictures make me excited for winter to arrive. I hope we get to see plenty of scenes like that in a couple months!

O hell yeah. And that storm was the lone bright spot in what was otherwise a pretty shitty winter from start to finish. Without that storm or if we only got Iike 25% of that storm total, the winter would have been one to forget. Even though we lost 80% of that snowpack the following week, we still maintained a snowpack all the way thru March because of that storm and it meant the difference between an A- and C+ in my book for an overall winter grade.

So just goes to show, even in the midst of what was a crappy winter on a macro level, we can still break single storm records for snowfall if the pattern aligns itself in any given week.

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37 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html

1-2.5" of rain across the area. 

This has been a very wet last 6 weeks with over 8” at KBUF in that timeframe. This makes me breathe a bit easier as the more soil moisture we can get now will stay as it gets cooler and eventually colder jelling the cold air to not modify as much coming up. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

OHWeather outlook is out

 

So what I gather from the first paragraph is that, of course, anything could make it warmer than forecast. A polar bear will blow a hot fart out of its butt and that will pop a ridge over us...

Hopefully we can get the 2nd paragraph to work out. :) 

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17 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Sure was. Never seen anything like it and probably never will again around here. The other day I was looking back at some of my pictures during and after that storm and still can't get over how fast and furious it piled up. 

Same here. It really was ridiculous and 3x+ more than forecast here.

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From Ohio. His forecast is the best on the forum IMO

My thought is that there's blocking early, probably peaking in December, and then it backs off a bit through January and into February with the cold shifting northwest and more of a gradient pattern setting up as the SE ridge flexes. So I think it is cold early in the GL/OV and then is milder mid-winter. Snow may depend on where you are...up in Wisconsin it may be most active when the blocking relaxes, whereas farther south gets more of their snow when it's colder with more blocking. 

I think by November we'll have a decent idea on if the early blocking idea will pan out or not. There is an element of "could go either way" still this early. 

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From Ohio. His forecast is the best on the forum IMO

My thought is that there's blocking early, probably peaking in December, and then it backs off a bit through January and into February with the cold shifting northwest and more of a gradient pattern setting up as the SE ridge flexes. So I think it is cold early in the GL/OV and then is milder mid-winter. Snow may depend on where you are...up in Wisconsin it may be most active when the blocking relaxes, whereas farther south gets more of their snow when it's colder with more blocking. 

I think by November we'll have a decent idea on if the early blocking idea will pan out or not. There is an element of "could go either way" still this early. 

I always like Raleighwx's forecasts too...I'm not sure if he still frequents the board?

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Well I guess this is why Montague was down yesterday..

Beginning October 4th, the KTYX WSR-88D radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Burlington, VT and located at Montague, NY will be down for approximately two weeks for an important upgrade. Technicians will refurbish and replace the pedestal, one of the most critical components of the radar, which is necessary for antenna rotation and positioning to capture data in all directions. The components are extremely heavy and will require the radome to be removed by crane and replaced when the work is completed.

 

The radar and pedestal were designed to last 25 years, and this radar has exceeded its life-span. This activity is necessary to keep the radar functioning for another 20 years or more.


The pedestal refurbishment is the third major project of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program, a series of upgrades that will keep our nation’s radars viable into the 2030s. NOAA’s National Weather Service, the United States Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration are investing $135 million in the eight year program. The first project was the installation of the new signal processor and the second project was the refurbishment of the transmitter. The fourth project will be the refurbishment of the equipment shelters. The Service Life Extension Program will be complete in 2023.

During the downtime, adjacent radars include:

  • KCXX – Burlington, VT
  • KENX – Albany, NY
  • KBUF – Buffalo, NY
  • KBGM – Binghamton, NY.
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