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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Euro and GFS both agree that the usual warm spots could approach 100° this week.

 

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thats weird my house in the poconos at 2000 ft will be hotter than my house on long island.  Isn't the water supposed to hot enough by now that the wind direction doesn't have a significant impact on hot temps? This looks much more like a late spring pattern.

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It hasn’t been that bad. Yesterday was nice and last weekend was beautiful. 
 

Today sucks for sure. We don’t have many weekends in summer and to ruin a weekend day is brutal 

it's always the weekend though lol

But hadn't we already had a very rainy July?  why is the rain so needed now after nearly a foot of rain fell in July?

 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's always the weekend though lol

But hadn't we already had a very rainy July?  why is the rain so needed now after nearly a foot of rain fell in July?

 

We didn’t get that rain out here. We have had many nice weekends this summer. Do you follow the weather or just post and ask questions?

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3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We didn’t get that rain out here. We have had many nice weekends this summer. Do you follow the weather or just post and ask questions?

Must be a Suffolk County thing, Nassau County has had plenty of rain, my pond has been overflowing and my mold allergies have been awful.  I don't follow Suffolk County weather because I haven't been out there since 2019 and no media reports on Suffolk County rainfall totals.  I just get the stuff for NYC and the surrounding airports.  We've had rain here on 5 weekends (at least one day of the weekend at any rate) since the beginning of July.  Dry went away here when June ended.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

thats weird my house in the poconos at 2000 ft will be hotter than my house on long island.  Isn't the water supposed to hot enough by now that the wind direction doesn't have a significant impact on hot temps? This looks much more like a late spring pattern.

Even SW Nassau should reach 90° before any sea breezes arrive. You can see a deep SW flow from the 5 boroughs westward. Most spots on LI from Sunrise highway north should also reach 90°. Both the Euro and GFS have +20c 850s on Wed, Thurs, and Fri. 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even SW Nassau should reach 90° before any sea breezes arrive. You can see a deep SW flow from the 5 boroughs westward. Most spots on LI from Sunrise highway north should also reach 90°. Both the Euro and GFS have +20c 850s on Wed, Thurs, and Fri. 

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Thank goodness, so this is another case of the models thinking that the southern part of Long Island is in the ocean (probably wont happen for another 50 years or so lol.)  We also see this in snowfall prediction algorithms.  SW winds usually get us to 90 before the sea breeze kicks in from July to September.

 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even SW Nassau should reach 90° before any sea breezes arrive. You can see a deep SW flow from the 5 boroughs westward. Most spots on LI from Sunrise highway north should also reach 90°. Both the Euro and GFS have +20c 850s on Wed, Thurs, and Fri. 

C84A4DE2-0640-414C-B81E-C14B84558D61.thumb.jpeg.6151b2d75c38ce66d4772232176f04ae.jpeg

 

So JFK and surrounding area could hit 90 each of those 3 days, Chris?

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thank goodness, so this is another case of the models thinking that the southern part of Long Island is in the ocean (probably wont happen for another 50 years or so lol.)  We also see this in snowfall prediction algorithms.  SW winds usually get us to 90 before the sea breeze kicks in from July to September.

 

Models lack the resolution to show those finer details. That’s  why when they show upper 90s to near 100° in interior NJ those highs usually verify for EWR and LGA. The other thing is that the warmth on the first day of deep SW flow usually beats guidance. Then the heat on the next few days start from a higher launching point than forecast. Sometimes, more morning WSW flow verifies on Long Island before the sea breeze arrives. So areas near and north of the LIE can make a run in 95° before temperatures fall back.

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13 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Why weren’t you at your house in the Poconos this weekend?  

Hey I have two gardens to take care of lol, so both need to get some love.  I'm going to be there for the Perseids meteor shower peak though, I had an amazing experience seeing them last year from there, first time I've ever seen shooting stars change colors as they fell- I think being away from lights made the experience much better.  Some even looked like they came really close to hitting the ground- must've been an optical illusion but it was still a lot of fun.

 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models lack the resolution to show those finer details. That’s  why when they show upper 90s to near 100° in interior NJ those highs usually verify for EWR and LGA. The other thing is that the warmth on the first day of deep SW flow usually beats guidance. Then the heat on the next few days start from a higher launching point than forecast. Sometimes, more morning WSW flow verifies on Long Island before the sea breeze arrives. So areas near and north of the LIE can make a run in 95° before temperatures fall back.

Yes, I've noticed this often.  JFK actually has higher temps than the other airports even Newark for the first half of the day and only levels off or slowly falls after about 1 PM.  Imagine if it was a westerly or even northwesterly flow all day, JFK would always have the highest temps in the region.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I've noticed this often.  JFK actually has higher temps than the other airports even Newark for the first half of the day and only levels off or slowly falls after about 1 PM.  Imagine if it was a westerly or even northwesterly flow all day, JFK would always have the highest temps in the region.

 

 

Imagine how many 90° days JFK would have if Jamaica Bay was as warm as  Biscayne Bay.;)

 

 

 

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57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's always the weekend though lol

But hadn't we already had a very rainy July?  why is the rain so needed now after nearly a foot of rain fell in July?

 

We barely had any rain in July here in suffolk

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8 minutes ago, justinj said:

A much needed soaking rain for suffolk. Anyone have totals for middle island/miller place area? Recently moved and haven’t setup weather station yet

someone sent me a link to wunderground wundermap and I clicked on precip and it showed that about 1.5-1.8 inches fell across the western and central parts of Suffolk County.  Less to the west and the east.

 

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13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

July rainfall in Smithtown was 7.65".

6.93" fell July 1 - 15

0.72" fell July 16 - 31

 

 

Interesting. Been so busy with the new house. We barley had any rain here in north middle island

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