NorthHillsWx Posted October 24, 2024 Share Posted October 24, 2024 5PM went with: 160 mph 926 mb Cat 5… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2024 Author Share Posted October 24, 2024 5PM went with: 160 mph 926 mb Cat 5…Yeah, the eye has continued to warm. SSTs are ~28°C under Kristy's core. Great enhancement with a strong ULAC aloft and low shear values; at 140 kts intensity, Kristy has been able to reach MPI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 25, 2024 Share Posted October 25, 2024 I wonder how often the EPAC and Atlantic had 5s during the same season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 7-day code red in the E. Pacific 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 On 5/23/2025 at 10:46 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 7-day code red in the E. Pacific and thus a chipmunk was born Tropical Storm Alvin Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ALVIN... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Hurricane Barbara Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...BARBARA HOLDING STEADY... 2:00 PM MST Mon Jun 09 Location: 18.2°N 106.8°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 991 mb Max sustained: 75 mph Tropical Storm Cosme Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...COSME NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... 2:00 PM MST Mon Jun 09 Location: 15.0°N 113.9°W Moving: NW at 9 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Erick is rapidly intensifying this morning and looks to be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Josh is chasing too. Crazy amount of RI into landfall storms recently in EPAC. This one looks mean on sat already this morning if trends continue this could be a significant impact 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 47 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Erick is rapidly intensifying this morning and looks to be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Josh is chasing too. Crazy amount of RI into landfall storms recently in EPAC. This one looks mean on sat already this morning if trends continue this could be a significant impact I heard someone had a dream last week (when Dalila was active) of logging onto the NHC front page and seeing a Category 4 off the west coast of Mexico, well before models started to initialize Look what we have here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Erick is rapidly intensifying this morning and looks to be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Josh is chasing too. Crazy amount of RI into landfall storms recently in EPAC. This one looks mean on sat already this morning if trends continue this could be a significant impact Erick is really looking good. Recon will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago NHC explicitly states major hurricane at landfall and that it is undergoing RI in the latest advisory. A small eye is peeking out now and all systems look “go” for this rate of intensification into the coast. The impact area isn’t exactly unpopulated either with a lot of towns along the coast regardless where the eye crosses. Really think this becomes a significant hit for Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Pressure looks to be ~976-77mb per dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 15:50ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: ErickStorm Number & Year: 05 in 2025 (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 15:23:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.05N 95.98WB. Center Fix Location: 156 statute miles (252 km) to the SSW (199°) from Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,915m (9,564ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 8kts (From the NW at 9mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55kts (63.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSE (152°) of center fix at 15:20:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 239° at 59kts (From the WSW at 67.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSE (151°) of center fix at 15:20:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the NNW (329°) of center fix at 15:26:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 50° at 76kts (From the NE at 87.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix at 15:26:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 0°C (32°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NW/NNW (326°) from the flight level center at 15:26:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago This next pass should be very interesting. Erick’s presentation is looking better by the minute. Those winds will respond to the rapid pressure falls since this morning and I’m sure we’ll see more falls on this pass from the first. Very impress looking cat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This next pass should be very interesting. Erick’s presentation is looking better by the minute. Those winds will respond to the rapid pressure falls since this morning and I’m sure we’ll see more falls on this pass from the first. Very impress looking cat 1 Extrapolated pressure now at 972.5mb, with FL peak of 93kt and SFMR of 88kt. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago This will likely be another case of a strengthening hurricane til landfall. A Cat 4 at LF wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Extrapolated pressure now at 972.5mb, with FL peak of 93kt and SFMR of 88kt. Not bad. I’m going with 90 kts at the interim advisory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Erick appears to be going through nuclear intensification, not just rapid lol. That’s the sat presentation of at least a 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Erick appears to be going through nuclear intensification, not just rapid lol. That’s the sat presentation of at least a 3 Likely to be the first major hurricane to make landfall in Mexico in the month of June for either basin. Also an unusual track for the time of year with only handful of hurricanes to ever have made landfall along that stretch of coastline this early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Next recon is en route and I fully expect at least a mid grade 3 by the time it arrives. I don’t think cat 4 before landfall is off the table. This is incredible for June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago That eye looks very impressive, embedded right in the center of the bursting convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 54 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Next recon is en route and I fully expect at least a mid grade 3 by the time it arrives. I don’t think cat 4 before landfall is off the table. This is incredible for June After we had a Cat 5 in the Atlantic on July 1 last year. There is definitely some uptick in potential energy in the tropics.. E. Pacific already going through 5 named storms in the 1st half of June.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago Incredibly fast EWRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Recon found 953 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 120mph/953mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Insane rate of intensification in the past hour. The EPac has delivered some ridiculous RI landfalls in recent years. While not quite Otis (and thankfully far away from major population centers), Erick is putting on one of the more remarkable RIs while approaching landfall in a long time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Insane rate of intensification in the past hour. The EPac has delivered some ridiculous RI landfalls in recent years. While not quite Otis (and thankfully far away from major population centers), Erick is putting on one of the more remarkable RIs while approaching landfall in a long time Someone claimed this 12 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: I heard someone had a dream last week (when Dalila was active) of logging onto the NHC front page and seeing a Category 4 off the west coast of Mexico, well before models started to initialize Look what we have here now They claimed they had the dream around June 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Insane rate of intensification in the past hour. The EPac has delivered some ridiculous RI landfalls in recent years. While not quite Otis (and thankfully far away from major population centers), Erick is putting on one of the more remarkable RIs while approaching landfall in a long time Pin hole eyes can really produce some high end winds relative to pressure. Also the cdo is rather small too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Pin hole eyes can really produce some high end winds relative to pressure. Also the cdo is rather small too. I am so curious what the winds are in this thing right now. Conventional wisdom would say that Erick is bombing out and maybe some insane wind gusts are wrapping around the eyewall. However, I can't help but notice the trochoidal wobbles of the pinhole eye. This circulation isn't fully stacked on a tiny axis centered within the pinhole eye just yet. Rather the eye is wobbling around within a larger local circulation, most likely a EWRC. I trust the 125mph estimate for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said: I am so curious what the winds are in this thing right now. Conventional wisdom would say that Erick is bombing out and maybe some insane wind gusts are wrapping around the eyewall. However, I can't help but notice the trochoidal wobbles of the pinhole eye. This circulation isn't fully stacked on a tiny axis centered within the pinhole eye just yet. Rather the eye is wobbling around within a larger local circulation, most likely a EWRC. I trust the 125mph estimate for now Hurricane Erick Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive Special Advisory products have been issued. Use links below for details. ...ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... 12:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19 Location: 15.5°N 97.5°W Moving: NW at 9 mph Min pressure: 939 mb Max sustained: 145 mph Public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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