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Central PA - Summer 2021


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mcd1551.gif

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to gradually increase into
   this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 16Z.

   DISCUSSION...At 1445Z, T.D. Fred is still moving northeastward near
   the OH/WV border northeast of Parkersburg, WV. A warm front extends
   east-northeast from the cyclone across southern PA, while a surface
   confluence axis is noted extending from southwest PA into central
   VA. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across
   PA in conjunction with the warm front this afternoon, with some
   breaks in the clouds allowing for some modest destabilization from
   central PA southward into MD/northern VA. 

   Convection will likely increase in coverage with time near/north of
   the warm front, with more scattered convection possible along/east
   of the surface confluence axis into MD/northern VA. This afternoon,
   0-1 km SRH will likely be maximized over central PA (potentially in
   excess of 200 m2/s2), though somewhat enhanced SRH will also extend
   southward into MD/VA where surface winds remain backed to a
   southeasterly direction. Scattered supercells are likely to evolve
   with time as convection matures, with an attendant threat of a few
   tornadoes and isolated/scattered damaging wind gusts. Tornado Watch
   issuance is likely by 16Z in response to these threats.
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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Wanna start paying my mortgage? I recently refinanced to a 15 year note!

great time to do it.... lower rates wont last forever.  Hope you took a few years off in process.

smart thing to do for any that need to.

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5 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

suns coming out in the Burg. not warming fast though. 81

sun=instability.  Might not take much.  I think souther lsv is likely on the sidelines (based off of days of showing more of a squall line coming through my area), but pts N look to get enough lift to really stir up the CTP pot.  I'd think a quick hitter down here, but you Hburgers and north crew east of the susky may cash in on damaging Tboomers.

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4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sun, blue skies, some dark clouds and a tropical shower here at work. It looks and feels like central Florida out there.

I was just going to mention how tropical it feels albeit not nearly as warm as Florida :-).  Radar hallucinations show the spinning moving a bit more East of North than forecast.  

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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

sun=instability.  Might not take much.  I think souther lsv is likely on the sidelines (based off of days of showing more of a squall line coming through my area), but pts N look to get enough lift to really stir up the CTP pot.  I'd think a quick hitter down here, but you Hburgers and north crew east of the susky may cash in on damaging Tboomers.

 

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

The spin threat is higher than a severe t-storm threat, as weird as that sounds. 

You don't want to be just east of the rotation ... which is exactly where Harrisburg is. 

i have early evening plans. thinking of changing them

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

mcd0822.gif

I just had one of the bands come through a little bit ago, and it was very intense. That band is now just east of town and it is likely to trigger flash flood warnings (surprised it hasn’t already) as the motion is starting to align with it’s orientation. In other words, basically training south to north over the same general corridor with very slow overall propagation towards the east/northeast. It’s also trying to fill back in here some.

C0E7B3EC-7C05-4D92-B329-97119A864B21.thumb.png.766387d2296d5656ef135c8b47792efc.png

 

 

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25 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

i have early evening plans. thinking of changing them

if i were you I'd wait till bout 3pm to do so.  dry slot all the way up to Mason Dixon line near HGR.  IF that action back in SE WVA starts to pop, then I'd hit the cancel button.  If not.  Just take and extra towel to sop up the juices emitting from your body.....

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

if i were you I'd wait till bout 3pm to do so.  dry slot all the way up to Mason Dixon line well east of HGR.  IF that action back in SE WVA starts to pop, then I'd hit the cancel button.  If not.  Just take and extra towel to sop up the juices emitting from your body.....

Well, Nut....if Canderson had written this I would be thinking he is pushing moderation boundaries again but not sure about you. 

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17 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I just had one of the bands come through a little bit ago, and it was very intense. That band is now just east of town and it is likely to trigger flash flood warnings (surprised it hasn’t already) as the motion is starting to align with it’s orientation. In other words, basically training south to north over the same general corridor with very slow overall propagation towards the east/northeast. It’s also trying to fill back in here some.

C0E7B3EC-7C05-4D92-B329-97119A864B21.thumb.png.766387d2296d5656ef135c8b47792efc.png

 

 

FFW just issued for that band 

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