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June 2021 General Discussion


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7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The forecast discussion from NWS Las Vegas is about as strongly worded as it can get.

Post worthy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
950 AM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A prolonged and likely record-breaking heatwave
capable of significant threats to life and infrastructure will take
hold of our region this week and continue into the weekend.
Temperatures may begin to decrease early next week but should remain
well above average.
&&

.UPDATE...Forecast in good shape today and no updates are planned
this morning. Temperatures have continued their upward trend and
averaging 2 to 4 degrees higher than they were at this time
yesterday. The excessive heat warning goes into effect at many
locations, including the Las Vegas Valley momentarily, at 10 am PDT
this morning.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday.

The stage is set for an extended period of excessive heat as a
strong Four Corners High slowly expands and eventually works its way
more directly over our region. Westward expansion of the high will
be limited today and Tuesday by a broad trough along the West Coast
that will gradually lift inland with its base brushing across
northern California and northwest Nevada Tuesday. This setup will
continue to produce enhanced southwest winds especially across Inyo
County and south central Nevada this afternoon with gusts between 30
and 40 mph. The main impact will be very high to extreme wildfire
danger for these areas extending southward to the Spring Mountains
and Sheep Range. Winds will remain elevated over Esmeralda, central
Nye and Lincoln counties Tuesday as the trough lifts away to the
north for continued very high wildfire danger for those areas.

Temperatures will climb 2-3 degrees each day today and Tuesday
across the region. The Excessive Heat Warning will go into effect
beginning at 10 AM this morning and remains in effect until Saturday
evening. It is worth noting that the Four Corners High will pull mid
and high level moisture up from central Mexico which will bring us
some scattered cloud cover with bases above 15 kft MSL. It probably
won`t provide much relief from the heat and may actually trap heat
overnight and increase lows Tuesday night for some areas.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

The big story during the extended period will continue to be the
upcoming long-duration heatwave that will grip the Desert Southwest.
Area-wide heat risk, or the potential for people to experience heat
related impacts, will reach "high" or "very high" by Wednesday and
persist through at least Saturday. These levels of heat risk mean
that much or all of the population, including Las Vegas, will be at
substantial risk for heat related illnesses and impacts. How is this
risk calculated and why the attention on heat in the desert in June?
We will approach the discussion today answering those questions.

Consideration 1: High temperatures. High temperatures are enough to
be their own headline, with records expected to be broken across
much of the area beginning Tuesday and through possibly into the
weekend. See the climate section for record information for our
climate sites, but all of these locations and many more are expected
to be broken multiple days through Saturday...and not just a degree
or two, as much as 5-6 degrees in cases like Barstow and Bishop.

Consideration 2: Low temperatures. How cool the overnight period
gets plays a significant role in ability for heat effects to
compound over a period of time, both health related and
infrastructure demands. Beginning as early as tomorrow morning, lows
will struggle to fall below 80 degrees for the desert and river
valleys and by mid week, struggle to fall below 90. This results in
average temperatures through the 24 hour period above 100 degrees
meaning AC units run basically all day and night, those without
access to cooling experience no relief, and thus impacts increase.
Again, this effect might be tolerated if happening over a day or so,
but the forecast calls for several days of record breaking or near
record minimum temperatures...potentially through the weekend.

Consideration 3: Duration. Typically, heat waves that meet the above
two considerations last for one or two days...three or more days,
less than 6 times, and only once for 4 or more days (for KLAS
specifically). Currently we are forecasting these conditions for *at
least* 4 days, if not up to 6. Thus, the expectation is that impacts
may initially be slow to build but increase significantly into the
late week and weekend.

Regarding impacts: The last time we experienced heat of this
magnitude and duration was late June & early July 2013. During that
event, southern Nevada saw nearly 30 fatalities and over 350 heat
related injuries as well as temporary power outages. Some of those
impacts were surely increased due to the 4th of July holiday period
but nearly 2/3 of those fatalities occured while indoors...providing
a clue that it isn`t just increased outdoor recreation that led to
those impacts.

Thus, impacts to expect this week...
- Rapid onset of dehydration, hyperthermia, heat cramps, heat stroke
& heat exhaustion.
- Extreme risk for children and pets if left in a hot vehicle even
for minutes.
- High demand for power consumption due to continued AC usage.
Possible power outages and/or failing air conditioning units,
providing inadequate daytime and nighttime cooling.

There are more considerations that go into evaluating heat risk
including vulnerability but given the magnitude of this expected
heat wave, most if not all of the population will be at high or very
high risk. The lengthy breakdown of the heat concerns in this
discussion are specifically intended to contextualize this expected
heat event vs others and to bust the myth that this is typical for
the Desert Southwest. It isn`t.
&&
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1 hour ago, kevlon62 said:

Quite the plume.2b5930323271847208fdb3ad784ae773.jpgdcb16f4c0c25fad0f96fe955397d162a.jpg3766c2626773b1bcce873ebd67985309.jpg

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

The last couple years or so has seen a lot of these types of fires around the world. Infrastructure getting old? Some have posited the increase in cosmic rays during solar min destabilizes some chemical concoctions. But human error is the usual suspect. Dangerous stuff. Superior WI, just 25 miles S of me, had an incident a few years ago at its refinery.

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Just now, Brian D said:

The last couple years or so has seen a lot of these types of fires around the world. Infrastructure getting old? Some have posited the increase in cosmic rays during solar min destabilizes some chemical concoctions. But human error is the usual suspect. Dangerous stuff. Superior WI, just 25 miles S of me, had an incident a few years ago at its refinery.

ban

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My girlfriend’s parents were evacuated. They are within .5 miles from the plant. 
 

They heard a boom and got alerts on their phones. Her mom was mad because her dad was taking time in the bathroom lol

They packed extra things in case they can’t go back for awhile etc.

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My son had basketball practice at Hononegah high school about a half mile from the plant, they evacuated everything within 1 mile so I got this pic when picking him up around 9. Bonus pic from my house 8 miles away.

Nice light rain of ash on my car in the school parking lot, top 3 precip event of the year here.


f62a7b147741b7c4c17f1d1896a3aada.jpg
68b5c56501e7a2798cda15edade20cc8.jpg

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Some Las Vegas data. Stretches above 110. I used threadex, and there was data for a downtown station from 1900 to 1956. The two 1930's came from that station.

1940-06-12 to 1940-06-20    9 Max 116
1957-06-24 to 1957-06-27    4 Max 113
1961-06-22 to 1961-06-26    5 Max 113
1977-06-27 to 1977-06-30    4 Max 114
1979-06-26 to 1979-06-29    4 Max 112
1994-06-26 to 1994-06-30    5 Max 115
2017-06-18 to 2017-06-25    8 Max 117
1932-06-22 to 1932-06-28    7 Max 113
1933-06-12 to 1933-06-15    4 Max 114

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13 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Wow, Vegas sure is a hot, nasty place in June sometimes. Without A/C in the early years, that had to be absolutely miserable.

 

Was thinking about this with respect to Phoenix the other day, but I think it applies to Vegas too. I’m 100% sure neither would have exploded in population to become the large cities they are today if not for A/C. 

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Today was the 12th consecutive day of 80+ at ORD, the longest streak to occur in June since 2010.  This *should* be the last day as tomorrow appears like it is going to come up short.

The 2021 streak is one day less than the one in 2010, but the 2021 streak is more impressive imo because of the earlier onset in June and more 90s in the mix.

Highs during the 6/16-6/28, 2010 streak:

82, 84, 90, 85, 81, 85, 85, 87, 84, 84, 87, 85, 82

 

Highs during the 6/3-6/14, 2021 streak:

87, 91, 92, 89, 80, 91, 89, 90, 92, 93, 87, 83

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This is incredible and must be getting into record territory for a summer month.  Here's a RAP forecast sounding for my area on Wednesday afternoon, which has 850 mb dewpoints under -20C.  That's negative 20C, or below zero.  If it's really that bone dry at that level, I'd have to think the surface dews may come in lower than modeled on here.  Seems like it's keeping the surface dews up, relatively speaking, courtesy of some marine influence.

1157723022_2021061421_RAP_048_41.52-87.42_severe_ml.thumb.png.2d009d3c63aa493985df596dd8fd7081.png

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6 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Speaking of 100, how about this how forecast out west.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.2466&lon=-116.817#.YMeIYDpE3mE

I noticed this when I checked PNX's forecast, I'm jelly. A week out from the summer solstice - the best time of the year.

I have rain (15-20 mm) forecast for this Fri, I have my doubts.

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Today is even better than yesterday, clear blue skies with an unusually high constant wind for June standards at 20+ km/h, gusts to 35 km/h. Its been about 20ºC since mid-morning with my dp plummeting down to 0ºC - that's likely the lowest in a few months. My overnight low coming - 9ºC :o

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