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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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Just like the prior run, the 12Z Euro has a sharp far E Atlantic recurve of this wave though not as early as the 0Z, which went quickly back into Africa. This is still evolving as the Euro had it come off Africa way up at 20N a few days ago. Now it is down to 16N and that's still 5 days out. So, far from set in stone yet. It may still recurve sharply, but if it stays weak near Africa, it likely won't sharply recurve.

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 And for the first time now we have a substantial split on the 12Z EPS, the sharp recurvers and those left behind moving mainly westward just past 30W, which means lots of uncertainty as this is still evolving::

 ecmen_12_mslps_ta_h_0198.png.b39089c702be33adbad0ef37013e58d9.png

 

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1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

91L is firing off some decent convection and it looks way more south/east than where NHC is showing it.   Florida might need to watch this. 

Screenshot_20210906-143107_Chrome.jpg

Interesting observation. I'll be watching much more closely...

The forecast has definitely shifted east since I last looked and Tampa Bay is right on the edge of the yellow blob.

image.thumb.png.39216782b5bcb3140c3c2c5d45d70224.png

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48 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Interesting observation. I'll be watching much more closely...

The forecast has definitely shifted east since I last looked and Tampa Bay is right on the edge of the yellow blob.

image.thumb.png.39216782b5bcb3140c3c2c5d45d70224.png

Regardless, looking at where the convection is right now, you may get some nice storms where it ends up going. 

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3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Regardless, looking at where the convection is right now, you may get some nice storms where it ends up going. 

Things really dry up around here between now and November when cold fronts start coming down, except for the occasional tropical systems. We'll take the rain for sure.

We also know that this is the time of year when surprises happen over the Gulf, so anything that is worthy of tracking is worthy of watching carefully. Sometimes systems just pop up almost overnight and get a name in 24 to 48 hours in September and October.

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A lot of ECENS like 91L to weakly develop before heading into the Atlantic.  Although weaker than 1000 mb, not sure it ever gets a name.  Intensity plots also suggest it is not named.

 

The W Carib -> Gulf system GFS had 4 days ago persistently now hugs the South American coast into Central America, and doesn't even make the S BoC with enough time for a spinup before Mexico.   MJO looks unfavorable.  Not to jinx anything, but with the exception of once every 50 year Jerry type minimal October canes, it doesn't look to become favorable before mean Westerlies have returned.  Equinox, the end of the Texas season, passes before anything gets near.

October looks interesting on EWP, which has been pretty good all Summer, stuff from the Caribbean may visit the Northern Gulf and Florida in October

I'll miss any local excitement this year, but I also keep my electricity.

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Interesting development of 91L. The eastern convection from yesterday has fizzled but new broad convection has popped up on the western side and just recently it looks like more is bubbling up right in the center. If this can tighten into a core it would have quite a bit of Gulf to work with before Florida...

Screenshot_20210907-095032_Chrome.jpg

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10 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Question all here:  Does a Hurricane or Tropical storm lose its name once it is downgraded to a depression and/or extra tropical cyclone?  If so, does NOAA have this documented somewhere?  This is an insurance related question.  TIA

No.  Hence the Sandy impacts in the northeast were attributed to Sandy and the Ida impacts will be attributed to Ida.

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12z Euro develops the disturbance in the Caribbean and moves it along the TX coast as a weak system, pretty much the only model showing development of that though besides a few GEFS ensembles.

ecmwf_mslpa_watl_6.png

Another thing to watch is a wave that'll be coming through the Bahamas late next week, GFS and Euro don't show development atm, but several GEFS members have been consistent on developing it for several runs, so something to watch

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_32.png 

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3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Lock it in stone, even at range the model knows to somehow miss the Florida east coast! Lol. That’s the greatest home grown fantasy cane I’ve ever seen

Fantasycanes are great. I'm excited about fantasychasers and definitely fantasylive storm cams!

Maybe we have an entire new billion dollar industry at hand!

Fantasyweather Channel!!!

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4 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

12z Euro develops the disturbance in the Caribbean and moves it along the TX coast as a weak system, pretty much the only model showing development of that though besides a few GEFS ensembles.

ecmwf_mslpa_watl_6.png

Another thing to watch is a wave that'll be coming through the Bahamas late next week, GFS and Euro don't show development atm, but several GEFS members have been consistent on developing it for several runs, so something to watch

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_32.png 

Euro system is a foot of rain in 4 days for Houston, with an area between here and San Antonio on/near I-10, maybe Columbus or Shiner, exceeding 16 inches.   Less than the 2016 Tax Day or 2015 Memorial Day floods, but rivers would probably flood.  Enough to keep an eye on.

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6 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Euro system is a foot of rain in 4 days for Houston, with an area between here and San Antonio on/near I-10, maybe Columbus or Shiner, exceeding 16 inches.   Less than the 2016 Tax Day or 2015 Memorial Day floods, but rivers would probably flood.  Enough to keep an eye on.

Was sitting outside having a fantasy about Jim Cantori talking about the GFS 15 day out model hurricane on the east coast of Florida with kids doing cartwheels behind him. When I went in my wife had on the Weather Channel and they had that new lemon bringing floods to Texas. I had to laugh to myself.

But yea, could be a flood maker I guess.

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I think what might be future 93L or 94L (nice Africa wave also), per GFS, almost (not quite) becomes a TD before landfall a bit South of the border.  Heavy rain confined to the immediate coast.  By immediate, I mean Houston for the entire tropical wave or tropical depression landfall is about 2 inches over several days.  Euro still has serious rain, but shifted to E Texas and Louisiana.  A few storm total bullseyes over a foot.  It doesn't quite get to a depression either.  Main issue is rains in Ida areas.  60% 5 day orange now.  GaWX wave is a 50/70 cherry.  Edit to add HPC QPF

WPC_QPF.PNG

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