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Central PA - Spring 2021


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1 hour ago, paweather said:

Sorry me. :( I'll put my hand up and accept it. 

No. It's all good. I just don't understand it. I love warm weather, but I don't really want 70 or 80 on Christmas Day. It's supposed to be cold, and perhaps snowy here at that time.

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A lot of people that know a lot about severe weather seem really concerned for what's about to transpire...

Probably a good thing for us it's early in the spring (and not having diurnal heating given time of the day) because a lot of these same dynamics driving the impending PDS situation in the deep south ride up through PA overnight into tomorrow morning. The NAM actually does briefly inject higher surface dewpoints, high helicity, and some CAPE (mainly 500-800) into eastern PA around daybreak but dry air aloft is already punched in at 700mb and most of the scattered showers/possible storms are lifted north. Seeing this type of a dynamic situation in say, May would likely be a much different story. 

At any rate, the wind situation looks to be a pretty significant deal tomorrow with most of the area easily seeing wind advisory criteria. Guess I'm the lucky one that get's the high wind warning in this situation. I don't often see a high wind warning actually verify here but this is looking like that once in a few years time that it actually does as I'm co-located nearest the best dynamics plus the immediate downslope off the Allegheny Front with the westerly winds. The Euro was through the roof (or blowing the roof away) with wind gusts around here in today's run. 18z 3k NAM coming in isn't quite that nuts but it's close. 

ecmwf-deterministic-pennsylvania-gust_mph-6778000.thumb.png.c33ff0dc0a812bb8612ba2a8a053b55f.png

 

 

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26 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Probably a good thing for us it's early in the spring (and not having diurnal heating given time of the day) because a lot of these same dynamics driving the impending PDS situation in the deep south ride up through PA overnight into tomorrow morning. The NAM actually does briefly inject higher surface dewpoints, high helicity, and some CAPE (mainly 500-800) into eastern PA around daybreak but dry air aloft is already punched in at 700mb and most of the scattered showers/possible storms are lifted north. Seeing this type of a dynamic situation in say, May would likely be a much different story. 

At any rate, the wind situation looks to be a pretty significant deal tomorrow with most of the area easily seeing wind advisory criteria. Guess I'm the lucky one that get's the high wind warning in this situation. I don't often see a high wind warning actually verify here but this is looking like that once in a few years time that it actually does as I'm co-located nearest the best dynamics plus the immediate downslope off the Allegheny Front with the westerly winds. The Euro was through the roof (or blowing the roof away) with wind gusts around here in today's run. 18z 3k NAM coming in isn't quite that nuts but it's close. 

ecmwf-deterministic-pennsylvania-gust_mph-6778000.thumb.png.c33ff0dc0a812bb8612ba2a8a053b55f.png

 

 

The headlines are from 10-6, think the wind dies down before then? 

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16 minutes ago, canderson said:

The headlines are from 10-6, think the wind dies down before then? 

Possibly, I think the timeframe looks pretty solid. Gusty winds are going to linger into the evening tomorrow but It does appear that late morning-mid afternoon period might be the time of highest gusts.  

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21 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

We were over 10" below normal for a large period of the summer last year.  I know it was scattered but for some last years drought was moderate to major.  

Yes, you definitely had it worse than we did here in York! Here's hoping we see enough rain this spring/summer to rectify that.

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18 hours ago, Voyager said:

Why...seriously, would any of you want a frigid Easter?

I understand loving cold and snow, but Easter is a time for spring flowers and sun dresses and such. Not parkas and long underwear...

For me, I think it’s pretty straightforward. An Easter that was cold and snowy is a lot more memorable than an Easter that was 64 and sunny.

Also, I wouldn’t refer to any April temperature that is within the realm of possibility in PA as “frigid.”

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5 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

For me, I think it’s pretty straightforward. An Easter that was cold and snowy is a lot more memorable than an Easter that was 64 and sunny.

There was an Easter in the 1980s when the high reached 96. I hated it...funny thing is, I remember it because it was extreme...

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

There was an Easter in the 1980s when the high reached 96. I hated it...funny thing is, I remember it because it was extreme...

A quick glance shows this was 1976, and still holds all time April records for most of the major cities on the eastern seaboard.

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks - again, my memory is good enough to remember these things but failing enough to not remember when they happened. :lol:

I wasn’t alive, though I do remember the April 2002 heatwave, which is one of the other standard-bearers for mid-April heat in PA and surrounding areas (though this wasn’t on Easter).

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22 hours ago, canderson said:

Advisories hoisted. I expect house damage. Wind always overperforms advisories imo. 
 

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1151 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

PAZ027-028-036-037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-260400-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WI.Y.0002.210326T1400Z-210326T2200Z/
Mifflin-Juniata-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Chambersburg,
Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Williamsport,
Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg,
Berwick, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
1151 AM EDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.

You are the James Spann of wind advisories.

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Just now, anotherman said:

I am about the biggest snow lover you can find and I must say I don't get the attraction of snow in April.......unless it is an HECS!

This. One of the things that I loved about our May snow last year was that it was...snow in May. Unless it's an exceptionally rare and/or large event, snow now does nothing for me. 

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