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Central PA - Spring 2021


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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

That general area seems to get a lot of excess rain/storms, it seems. Same with Elcott City, Maryland. 

You aint kiddin.  Since Bubbler called me out earlier on a typo I'll have to do the same to you, believe you meant Ellicott City ;)

Looks like some of the Mesos are pretty insistent on bringing a nice line of storms in from the north later this evening, something to keep an eye on.

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You aint kiddin.  Since Bubbler called me out earlier on a typo I'll have to do the same to you, believe you meant Ellicott City ;)

Looks like some of the Mesos are pretty insistent on bringing a nice line of storms in from the north later this evening, something to keep an eye on.

I am one of the board typo leaders.   In my case I just lack patience for proof reading.  Type and send!

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A quick 14" of rain could have been!  LOL.   I chuckled when I saw that and it still makes me chuckle now. 

Indeed, typos can be quite entertaining. But in seriousness, with apologies to @Mount Joy Snowman, I’m not relying on him or any other poster on a weather forum to determine whether or not the weather is going to kill me today.

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just a "tad" less than the EC flood.   Models still focus near Mason Dixon so that means Lewistown will score the big rain. 

24 hour north shift.   Noticed the local news Mets are downplaying the chances.   Course in York has been getting the rain but over in Adams it’s been high and dry.

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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

24 hour north shift.   Noticed the local news Mets are downplaying the chances.   Course in York has been getting the rain but over in Adams it’s been high and dry.

Yea, I have spent 3 days watching areas of York and Lancaster county live it up. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

 

Yea, I have spent 3 days watching areas of York and Lancaster county live it up. 

I was going to cut back on posting but this forum seems to be healthier now than over the winter.  Maybe lack of snow did that.    But I do enjoy following the updates on the latest model trends.   Keep em coming. 

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6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I was going to cut back on posting but this forum seems to be healthier now than over the winter.  Maybe lack of snow did that.    But I do enjoy following the updates on the latest model trends.   Keep em coming. 

Yeah, this forum is usually dead this time of year.

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9 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I was going to cut back on posting but this forum seems to be healthier now than over the winter.  Maybe lack of snow did that.    But I do enjoy following the updates on the latest model trends.   Keep em coming. 

I enjoy hashing out the details but over he last few days the lack of accountability is starting to wear on me.  If the NAM and GFS can only interpret scattered pop up cells like Oprah giving out rain to everyone (You get rain, and you get rain, and you get rain) I cannot use their outputs to even discuss.  Do not remember it being this bad in the past but I usually do not have time to post this much in the summer. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@TimB84 is owed a lot of credit for helping.   I told you those Pitt people are as nice as they come.   LOL

Well I see how little the Western PA folk post on here after the snow stops flying but I need my weather fix somehow. (And occasionally BSing about baseball and other topics.) Gotta also give @paweather credit for talking about snow daily while knowing it won’t be happening anytime soon.

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I enjoy hashing out the details but over he last few days the lack of accountability is starting to wear on me.  If the NAM and GFS can only interpret scattered pop up cells like Oprah giving out rain to everyone (You get rain, and you get rain, and you get rain) I cannot use their outputs to even discuss.  Do not remember it being this bad in the past but I usually do not have time to post this much in the summer. 

 

 

NWS carried 60 % likely chances or higher Monday through Friday so they took the bait.   I think we do get hit with that line dropping south later 

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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

NWS carried 60 % likely chances or higher Monday through Friday so they took the bait.   I think we do get hit with that line dropping south later 

There seems to be a lot of broad-brushing, especially on the forecasting side, and especially with the NWS (and that’s probably understandable given their wider audience). That said, I would guess that the issue on the model side has something to do with resolution, but like @Bubbler86said, even the hi-res models only seem to handle it marginally better.

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2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

There seems to be a lot of broad-brushing, especially on the forecasting side, and especially with the NWS (and that’s probably understandable given their wider audience). That said, I would guess that the issue on the model side has something to do with resolution, but like @Bubbler86said, even the hi-res models only seem to handle it marginally better.

And my understanding of their percentage process is that if they give a percent it means they expect that percent of the given area to see the suggested weather (vs a 60% chance they are right and 40% chance nothing happens).  But as @Cashtown_Coop alluded to, there is no way 60% of the LSV has seen rain any day this week so far.  Land area wise I would say that maybe it was 20-30% on Mon or Tue.

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And my understanding of their percentage process is that if they give a percent it means they expect that percent of the given area to see the suggested weather (vs a 60% chance they are right and 40% chance nothing happens).  But as @Cashtown_Coop alluded to, there is no way 60% of the LSV has seen rain any day this week so far.  Land area wise I would say that maybe it was 20-30% on Mon or Tue.

Not that it absolves the forecast of any incorrectness, because the percentages still don’t work out in the favor of 60%, but isn’t it (percentage chance that precip will form)*(percentage of the area that will see measurable precip)? So if the met is 80% confident that precip will form, and if it does, it will cover 50% of the area, 80%*50% = 40% chance of rain?

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