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Upstate/Eastern New York

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Strong upper ridge continues across the region Friday. ECMWF
deterministic data shows 500 mb height values around 591 dm by 12Z
Friday, which is above the maximum moving average per the SPC
climatology sounding page. This will result in continued limited
precipitation chances as the better moisture axis holds to the north
and west of the area along the periphery of the ridge axis. Friday
continues to look like the warmest day of this stretch with the
increasing height trend, with most high temperatures well into the
80s and could even see a 90F reading.

Dry and mild conditions expected Friday night.

Somewhat better chances for a few showers or a thunderstorm arrive
Saturday as height fields start to lower as a shortwave drops
southeast through the area. Humidity levels will also pick up.
Though this activity could happen anywhere, the better chances will
be from the Genesee Valley into the North County.

The best chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will
be Sunday as a potent air mass changing cold front pushes through
the region. At this time, an afternoon arrival of the front looks to
be favorable for some organized convection with the potential for
some stronger storms.


Any leftover showers will taper off Sunday evening as the cold front
continues to press south, before becoming stationary across the Ohio
Valley and Mid Atlantic states. High pressure building southeast
across our area in the wake of the cold frontal passage will bring a
much drier and refreshingly cooler airmass to the area for Sunday
night through Monday night with mainly dry weather expected, as
shower activity remains south of the NY/PA line closer to the now
stationary boundary.

Late Monday night into Tuesday increased moisture and warmer air
will start to make a return as the stalled out boundary to our south
and southwest starts to make a return to the northeast as a warm
front. This will be owed to clockwise return flow around high
pressure as it moves east off the southern New England coast. Upper
ridge tries to reestablish itself aloft, however quickly gets
flattened out as several shortwaves move through the mid and upper
level flow. This will renew the chance for some showers and perhaps
a few rumbles thunder for Tuesday through Wednesday.

Otherwise, after a refreshingly dry and less humid day on Monday
with daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 60s, daytime highs
for Tuesday and Wednesday will return to above normal levels. Expect
highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s both days.
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Kind of a mixed bag wrt temps on the GFS, several bouts of +anomalies over the next couple weeks with the occasional average-below Average regime.. This is at 850mb..

You will also note the greatest anomalies are mainly inland/GL's..lol


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13 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Kind of a mixed bag wrt temps on the GFS, several bouts of +anomalies over the next couple weeks with the occasional average-below Average regime.. This is at 850mb..

You will also note the greatest anomalies are mainly inland/GL's..lol


I could use some serious rain to top off the pool, otherwise I'll be calling the water truck. The heat is nice though for a change.  Sizzle Sizzle. 

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Another day of summer-like temperatures expected today as a
strong upper ridge axis remains centered over the area. Today
will start off mainly sunny for most areas with only some cirrus
drifting into the region, except for some more persistent mid
level clouds over the North Country. By afternoon, perhaps a bit
more cirrus than yesterday, but with thermal profiles very
similar see little reason why temperatures will not be close to
yesterday`s values. Most areas reaching the mid to upper 80s
with lower 90s quite possible for interior sections of the
Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Records highs (BUF
90F/1977...ROC 92F/1977...ART 83F/2012) for the day will
certainly be challenged. Dewpoints for the most part should
remain below 60F, so heat index will not be a concern.
Atmosphere should be pretty well capped, so the expectation is
that most everyone will remain dry, although a few CAMs do
suggest an isolated shower/storm may pop up across the interior
Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes.

Very warm, but quiet tonight. Temperatures only lowering into
the mid to upper 60s, although normally colder interior sections
may get into the upper 50s.


A shortwave will pass to the north of the region Saturday, which
will cause a surface trough to cross the area from north to south.
This will cause a limited chance for showers and thunderstorms
Saturday, with any activity being quite scattered. The best chances
will lie along the lake breeze boundaries that form over Niagara
county and the St. Lawrence Valley. Due to the uptick in activity,
cloud cover will be more prominent Saturday which will act to cool
off the day time highs. Expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Loss of daytime heating will act to stabilize the air enough to
diminish any remaining shower/storm activity Saturday Night.
Additionally, the exit of the shortwave aloft will act to erode the
remaining activity too.

Another, yet stronger shortwave Sunday will push a cold front across
the region Sunday. As model guidance packages conquer on the fact
that there will be a cold frontal passage, there is a better chance
for shower and thunderstorm activity. While there still remains some
discrepancies between the models with regards to timing, consensus
between the models push the front from north to south across the
region in the late morning and afternoon. An afternoon frontal
passage, will allow for storms to become severe. As of right now,
the SPC has placed the entire forecast region under a marginal risk
for severe storms. Afternoon instability looks best in the far
Southern Tier with MUCAPE values growing into a couple of thousand
Joules per kilogram. Additionally, enough shear (Bulk shear around
40 knots) will support any storms to develop a severe aspect.

After the passage of the front, notably cooler air will filter
across the region Sunday night with lows dropping into the mid 40s
to low 50s.
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Showers and thunderstorms will sag southeastward and eventually exit
the area on Thursday as the upper jet axis eventually moves
southward toward Pennsylvania by next weekend. This allows for
drastically cooler air to move into New York state. In fact,
consensus 850 hPa temperatures fall as far as the 0 to +2C range
over Lake Ontario late in the week and the start of the Memorial Day
holiday weekend. At the moment, due to uncertainty in the magnitude
and progression of the cold air mass, temperature forecasts are in
the 60s. However, if these projections hold and clouds/showers are
around as would be likely with end of the week 500 hPa temperatures
falling toward -16C, even colder temperatures would result.
Regardless, a much cooler second half of next week is in store than
the first half.
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Tuesday will start fairly cloudy as a warm front pushes across our
region. As a warm front pushes through our region we should see the
return of partly sunny skies during the afternoon hours. This
combined with a much warmer airmass behind the warm front (850 hPa
temperatures rising to 15 to 17C) will bring a return to summers
heat and humidity, with afternoon temperatures ranging through the
80s. Cooler areas tomorrow will be just to the northeast of the
eastern Great Lakes where a southwest wind should be enough to push
a cool lake breeze across metro Buffalo and NW Jefferson county.

Tuesday will also feature increased humidity, especially with it
still being May. Dewpoints are expected to return to the lower 60s,
and may even reach mid 60s across the Finger Lakes region. Given the
increased in instability and developing lake breeze boundaries a few
blossoming showers or thunderstorms remain possible, but lacking a
synoptic trigger within the overhead ridge of high pressure
widespread convection is not likely. Best chances will range from
the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes/SE Lake Ontario region, with
storms feeding off the increased surface dewpoints, and lift along
the lake breeze boundary.


Tuesday evening any diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms over
the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes will end, leaving
most of the night dry. A mid level shortwave is forecast to pass to
the north of Lake Ontario overnight, and this feature may bring a
chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm late Tuesday night to
the Saint Lawrence Valley. A southwesterly breeze in a very warm
airmass will keep temperatures very mild overnight, with lows only
around 70 on the lake plains of Western NY, and mid to upper 60s
across interior areas and east of Lake Ontario.

Wednesday will be potentially the most active day of the week. A
convectively augmented mid level shortwave and pre-frontal trough
will move from southern Ontario Wednesday morning to Central and
Eastern NY by late afternoon, providing the ascent and focus for
scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. The
approaching right entrance region of a 80+ knot upper level jet will
also provide some support for large scale ascent. The timing of the
system has trended faster in the 12Z guidance, with showers possibly
entering Western NY in the morning and then spreading to Central NY
by early afternoon.

The faster timing is an unfavorable trend for severe weather, as
there may be too much cloud cover and showers too early in the day
to allow for effective destabilization. If the timing holds, a
relatively better risk of severe weather would be east of our area
in Central and Eastern NY where better timing in relation to the
diurnal cycle is found. If sufficient destabilization occurs,
increasing deep layer shear and large scale ascent from the approach
of the mid level trough may support organized clusters of storms
with a primary risk of isolated damaging winds. A stout southwest
wind off Lake Erie (gusts up to 40mph) will produce an expansive
stable lake shadow in the afternoon, lowering the risk of rain and
storms along the corridor from Buffalo to Rochester.

The showers and storms associated with the pre-frontal trough will
move east of the area by early evening. The actual cold front and a
stronger synoptic scale mid level trough will cross the eastern
Great Lakes Wednesday night, and may produce a few more scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm.

The cold front will exit to the southeast late Wednesday night, with
dry weather returning for Thursday. A much cooler and drier airmass
will move into the region, with highs in the mid 60s in most areas
Thursday. Lows Thursday night will drop down well into the 40s as
cold advection continues on low level northeast flow.
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