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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Just now, rochesterdave said:

Really tight consensus. NAM 3k is alone. Looks like the finger lakes through the Tug might get a watch. Still a ways to go. 
BTW, NWS has been struggling with system gremlins. The 7 day wasn’t pulling up for me. 

That is actually a pretty sizable nationwide outage. The SPC had to post the day 2 severe outlooks in the form of a picture taken of one of the meterologist's phones.

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Really tight consensus. NAM 3k is alone. Looks like the finger lakes through the Tug might get a watch. Still a ways to go. 
BTW, NWS has been struggling with system gremlins. The 7 day wasn’t pulling up for me. 

I kind of hope this busts. I'd hate to think that one of the very few snowstorms to affect the Syr area, and actually delivers the goods, occurs while i'm away.  I may lower my grade for this season from D to D- if that happens. ;)

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Late season snow for parts of the region Wed night into Thu...

Upper trough from western Great Lakes to central Mississipi river
Valley approaches late Wed. Associated front now looks quicker to
cross. Result is when next surge of widespread precip returns to the
region from the southwest Wed evening on nose of upper level jet and
in deformation zone to west of developing coastal low, it will be
cold enough for snow from the start. Models still have differences
with intensity of the widespread surge of mainly snow Wed night.
Given the strength of approaching negative tiltled trough and
deepening sfc-H85 low along New England coast, like the higher QPF
of Canadian, though could not go completely to that solution as it
did differ by 0.10-0.20 compared to NAM and recent available runs of
the GFS and ECMWF. Net result was an increase in snow from Southern
Tier to especially the western and northern Finger Lakes on Wed
night. Still appears that far western NY will be on the far western
fringe of this system.

Headlines will likely eventually be in place across much of our
forecast area except maybe far western NY, but main issue is where
to place a winter storm watch for the potential for heaviest snow.
Greatest certainty for that currently is east of Lake Ontario closer
to track of coastal low and with added boost from upslope and lake
enhanced snow on Thu. Seeming likely that higher terrain areas by
late Thu night will see over 10 inches with lower terrain areas
seeing at least 7 inches, if not more. Also will include Allegany,
Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Wayne and northern Cayuga counties
given synoptic snow on Wed night followed by lake enhanced snow on
Thu into Thu evening given a favorable sharp cyclonic cold and moist
flow to the west of departing low and within the upper level trough
axis and as H85 temps drop to -10 to -12c in the afternoon. Though
daytime disruptive effects with higher sun angle could limit
widespread snow coverage, expect pockets of those area to see
moderate to heavy snow at times on Thu.

Lake enhanced snow and upslope forced snow gradually diminishes
through Thu night into Fri, but did increase pops for higher terrain
of Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario all the way through Fri as
sufficient low-level moisture and more than sufficiently cold temps
persist as upper low only slowly pulls away from the region while
upstream ridge is still barely entering the western Great Lakes.
Overall once the snow starts off, it will not end until later Friday
or Friday evening, so a late season and long duration event it
appears.

Otherwise, other than snow, will be chilly and blustery early Spring
period with highs on Thu in the upper 20s to lower 30s, nearly 20F
below normal, with highs on Fri still in the 30s for most areas.
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