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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Some guidance is suggesting fairly significant cyclogenesis along the
aforementioned boundary as it nears the East coast Wednesday night
into Thursday. This could result in an Aprils Fools day storm to our
east with a period of steady accumulating snow for parts of our
forecast area not out of the question.

ECMWF and Can NH packages appear to have the best handle on this
scenario and will remain as preferred guidance.
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Some rain to get through first..

Recent rainfall and snowmelt from recent warm weather is causing
rises on Black River and its tributaries and other rivers and
streams that drain the Tug Hill, including the Salmon River. The
highest levels will be reached later this weekend into early next
week as another system brings around 1 inch of additional rainfall
late tonight through Sunday. There remains a small risk for minor
flooding.

My backyard is the salmon river lol But it's a pretty big drop off so doubtful I ever have to worry about flooding..

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32 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Pretty good concensus this far out... 

True. How many times have we been burned this season? I’m gun shy at this point. But I’d love to get a big last one. I never care if it melts right away. Time will tell. If it’s still there at 72 hours, I’ll be genuinely excited. 
Glad to see BUF is on board. 

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14 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Well, I'm in Pennsylvania for the week....so you guys have that going for you.

 

I'll be in CT later this week for my kid's return from deployment on his submarine.  With Matt and I out of town you can lock this one in!

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Amplified mid-upper pattern will continue across the CONUS for the
middle and end of next week as a sizable longwave trough dominates
the eastern third of the country for much of the period with well
below normal temperatures expected for Thursday and Friday. Main
features will be an upper low that closes off as it moves across the
Great Lakes Thursday before pivoting northward into southeastern
Canada as the main upper trough takes on a negative tilt. Meanwhile
at the surface a powerful cold front will plow across the lower
Great Lakes sometime later Wednesday and Wednesday night before
slowing its` eastward progression owed to the upper trough taking on
that negative tilt. This will also help to spawn an intensifying
area of surface low pressure that will move north along the boundary
passing just east of our forecast area. GOMEX and western Atlantic
in play, so will have plenty of moisture to work with.

In terms of sensible weather, strong forcing and plentiful moisture
surging northward ahead of the boundary will bring a round of rain
to the area initially before much colder air works in right behind
the boundary. Rain will change to snow late Wednesday and Wednesday
night, with an accumulating snowfall likely through the day on
Thursday as deepening low pressure moves north-northeastward along
the boundary that is just to the east of our area keeping plenty of
moisture in place. The potential exists for winter weather headlines
for snow accumulation Wednesday night through the end of the work
week. At this time, the highest confidence for multiple inches of
snow is on the Tug Hill Plateau.

Core of the very cold Canadian airmass will settle across the region
with the possibility for some upslope snow showers as well as the
possibility for some lake effect/enhanced snow showers downwind of
the Lakes for the end of the work week as wrap around moisture
lingers across the region. Expect some modification of the airmass
by the start of the weekend, however the next shortwave in the
pipeline may approach from the northwest toward the very end of the
period.
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