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March Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
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34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

This is good stuff lol. 

But not sure how tenacious one has to be to track snow in mid March:popcorn:. And actually you were pretty civil to me for the record. 

You have to be VERY tenacious.  In Dec-Feb, I don't give up easy.  But March, especially going into Mid March....I dunno man.  I become worse than Ehoffman or Baltwx.   It takes a lot to get me on board.  I haven't completely given up, I just don't expect much or follow nearly as closely.  I would love one last hurrah tho.  Would be a shame to waste that 1030 high/wedge 

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35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If there was one reason why I hate tracking snow in the mid to late march is the extra effin hour we gotta wait for models, especially at night.  Don't these storms know people gotta get up for the work the next morning?

Wait... so you don't stay up till 2am for the Euro in March if there is a chance of snow?  What kind of weather weenie are you?

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

If there was one reason why I hate tracking snow in the mid to late march is the extra effin hour we gotta wait for models, especially at night.  Don't these storms know people gotta get up for the work the next morning?

They’re laughing at us!

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z gfs has some snow tv at 138-144

Look at how it happens tho. The ull is waaaay west so it just a weak wave of moisture breaking off the low and slamming into a shred factory of downhill confluence. That's not going to get it done in mid march. We need upper level support. Otherwise it's light precip and blah temps. 

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Look at how it happens tho. The ull is waaaay west so it just a weak wave of moisture breaking off the low and slamming into a shred factory of downhill confluence. That's not going to get it done in mid march. We need upper level support. Otherwise it's light precip and blah temps. 
Yea this is no Feb 2015 west track lol
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39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at how it happens tho. The ull is waaaay west so it just a weak wave of moisture breaking off the low and slamming into a shred factory of downhill confluence. That's not going to get it done in mid march. We need upper level support. Otherwise it's light precip and blah temps. 

This goes back to my "pick your path to defeat" post of yesterday am. Now we back to that shitt. Either way, Its not happening!!

 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at how it happens tho. The ull is waaaay west so it just a weak wave of moisture breaking off the low and slamming into a shred factory of downhill confluence. That's not going to get it done in mid march. We need upper level support. Otherwise it's light precip and blah temps. 

There's a cluster of Gefs members that do have UL support FWIW. :D

 

f144.gif

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8 hours ago, stormtracker said:

You have to be VERY tenacious.  In Dec-Feb, I don't give up easy.  But March, especially going into Mid March....I dunno man.  I become worse than Ehoffman or Baltwx.   It takes a lot to get me on board.  I haven't completely given up, I just don't expect much or follow nearly as closely.  I would love one last hurrah tho.  Would be a shame to waste that 1030 high/wedge 

I track from mid October to mid April. I know it isn’t going to snow in mid October but I like to look at the models to start tracking the pattern for a couple of weeks down the line when snow chances pop up( very small chances but still if I believe there is even a 1% chance of a snowstorm in the next couple of weeks, I track). Yes it is very rare but it does happen. It snowed in October just this year where I live, and just a few years ago it snowed in April. I wasn’t alive then but there was one year where there was a massive blizzard that dropped over 2 feet of snow in all of eastern mass in early April. I know it is harder to get snow than it used to be due to global warming but I will never give up on tracking storms and stop being a weenie because of it.

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9 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

HH Eps continues positive changes.  Coming in colder,  flatter and more separation from the Pacific  northwest trough fwiw

Means are colder and flatter, but also crushed in the confluence and weakish/suppressed.

EPS/GEFS/GEPS all showing a little something precip wise early next week. Snow maps have an inch or 2, GEFS has more ofc and likes VA, as does the op. Worth tracking but these damping waves running into confluence didn't yield much in the heart of winter, and it will be mid March. Need some legit ascent/rates this time of year.

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49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Means are colder and flatter, but also crushed in the confluence and weakish/suppressed.

EPS/GEFS/GEPS all showing a little something precip wise early next week. Snow maps have an inch or 2, GEFS has more ofc and likes VA, as does the op. Worth tracking but these damping waves running into confluence didn't yield much in the heart of winter, and it will be mid March. Need some legit ascent/rates this time of year.

You having breakfast at the Waffle House this morning?

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Means are colder and flatter, but also crushed in the confluence and weakish/suppressed.

EPS/GEFS/GEPS all showing a little something precip wise early next week. Snow maps have an inch or 2, GEFS has more ofc and likes VA, as does the op. Worth tracking but these damping waves running into confluence didn't yield much in the heart of winter, and it will be mid March. Need some legit ascent/rates this time of year.

Ideally we need the ull to eject quicker and keep decent strength.  The biggest problem I see is the Pacific energy is catching our wave to a certain extent on much of guidance tugging it making it drag its feet east imo. Still a long ways out.  I'm still on the snow shuttle bus until its ova.:D

Around Day 10 timeframe might be another shot :popcorn:

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26 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:


We are still in the tail end of living in a world where many can work (or are required) to still work virtually “from home”.


.

Yes. My girlfriend has been working from home for the last year now. She could certainly do it in Colorado so long as there’s wifi connection lol

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1 hour ago, anotherman said:

How are people with a job able to chase during the week?  I don't get it......

Helps to be the boss too.  The guy I work for stopped by my office this morning to say that he was pulling his kids out of school and heading for Winter Park today to powder chase.   Returning Tuesday.

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22 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Helps to be the boss too.  The guy I work for stopped by my office this morning to say that he was pulling his kids out of school and heading for Winter Park today to powder chase.   Returning Tuesday.

Or if your brother is your boss lol. Just do what I want. Turns out it depends if I can get a project done by today. So probably not gonna be able to go which stinks. Hopefully this day 6 event happens

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13 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Or if your brother is your boss lol. Just do what I want. Turns out it depends if I can get a project done by today. So probably not gonna be able to go which stinks. Hopefully this day 6 event happens

you should go man. you only live once and this would be an amazing experience and incredible scenry. you would never forget this

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