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blizzard1024

Global Temperature 2021

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Global temperature are plummeting due to the strong La Nina.  In many parts of the world, record cold is occuring. The Thames River has froze in parts for the first time in 60 years. The UK had its coldest February day since 1955.  This is short term climatic cooling I realize but now we are seeing below average anomalies for the first time in many many years. Look at Climate Reanalyzer image for today and the CDAS for 00z last evening both negative.  

gfs_world-ced_t2anom_1-day.thumb.png.79086faf635edc14d2ac7084481d245a.png

cdas-all-globe-t2m_c_anom_1day_back-3520000.png.f2b46d5ecfa05f6904ebb67034937b26.png

 

These both show the strong influences of La Nina and the solar minimum on the climate. If this continues 2021 will no doubt be much colder than 2020 and probably begin a downward trend in global temperatures. Of course, El Nino can easily reverse that. So in many ways most of the warming and cooling patterns go along with ENSO. 

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Yes 2021 will be cooler than 2020, but so far there is no indication that the drop will be unusual for a La Nina. I posted this chart a few days ago in the 2020 thread. ENSO conditions currently are very similar to early 2011, but global average temperatures are much warmer. Note that Jan 2021 is above the long-term trend line, while Jan 2011 was below. If we can't get below the trend line, we are going to need a new, steeper one.

Screenshot_2021-02-13 January2021 pdf.png

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Its getting even colder vs the 1979-2000 normal. The Arctic for the first time in many many years is at +0.0C in the winter months. There is a warm blob over the Arctic Ocean but this is unknown territory given it is model data and model climo.  Given the Arctic is normal the assertion that Arctic warming is leading to record cold in Europe/Asia and north America is false. These ideas already have been floated around. They are not true. Look at the data...

 

Capture1.thumb.PNG.263204840aab88a9763d864758321090.PNG 

 

This site has the reanalysis data with a daily temperature of minus .172C the coldest I have seen in many many years. 

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.b6bea2bc9ff609c379db6fb4124f90f4.PNG

 

Of course we all know this is very short term climate and not reflective of long term trends. It does illustrate how much ENSO does affect the global temperature. The mean period for the graph I believe is 1994-2013 and the reanalyzer data is 1979-2000. So relatively to late 20th century and into early 21st century, significant cooling has taken place in a matter of months. Should this La Nina persist, it would be interesting to see if we get back to a negative departure vs 1981-2010 normal or even the 1979-2000 period below. 

 

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On 2/19/2021 at 2:16 PM, blizzard1024 said:

Its getting even colder vs the 1979-2000 normal. The Arctic for the first time in many many years is at +0.0C in the winter months. There is a warm blob over the Arctic Ocean but this is unknown territory given it is model data and model climo.  Given the Arctic is normal the assertion that Arctic warming is leading to record cold in Europe/Asia and north America is false. These ideas already have been floated around. They are not true. Look at the data...

 

Capture1.thumb.PNG.263204840aab88a9763d864758321090.PNG 

 

This site has the reanalysis data with a daily temperature of minus .172C the coldest I have seen in many many years. 

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.b6bea2bc9ff609c379db6fb4124f90f4.PNG

 

Of course we all know this is very short term climate and not reflective of long term trends. It does illustrate how much ENSO does affect the global temperature. The mean period for the graph I believe is 1994-2013 and the reanalyzer data is 1979-2000. So relatively to late 20th century and into early 21st century, significant cooling has taken place in a matter of months. Should this La Nina persist, it would be interesting to see if we get back to a negative departure vs 1981-2010 normal or even the 1979-2000 period below. 

 

That’s a one day chart. Here’s how the Arctic above 80N has fared:

image.png.a47e372bec0c59b1880fb66df91ff26b.png

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These large-scale perturbations in the recent normals are a signal of increasing hysteresis in the system. In other words the end of the Holocene climate regime is close as we head towards a equable climate with little to none temperature difference between the tropics and polar region.

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10 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

These large-scale perturbations in the recent normals are a signal of increasing hysteresis in the system. In other words the end of the Holocene climate regime is close as we head towards a equable climate with little to none temperature difference between the tropics and polar region.

We're already in the Anthrocene, where humanity is killing off all other species, besides the ones we farm or keep as pets.

 

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We're already in the Anthrocene, where humanity is killing off all other species, besides the ones we farm or keep as pets.

 

Like the other portion of the Anthropocene where you know we are unable to keep doing those things.

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Just wish there was a little more humility all around.

With a reliable instrument record dating back two centuries at most, we have no real experience in the inherent variability of the environment.

It would help if there were longer term records of first frosts and such, but afaik, nobody thought that was important until recently.

Hence we get excited whenever our short experience base gets exceeded. Great for papers, not necessarily so for actual understanding.

 

 

icne

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According to the chart above the earth has warmed roughly .8 degrees Celsius since 1980. This is roughly a 2 degrees Celsius of warming per century pace, which is approximately 4 times the pace of the previous century (roughly .5 degrees Celsius of warming). This is evidence that not only is the earth warming, but the rate of warming is rapidly accelerating. It is very concerning that a significant portion of the public does not believe that the earth is warming despite overwhelming evidence that it is. 

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I personally am not sold that any 'apparent' cooling should be readily attributed to La Nina. 

We just experienced a robust sudden stratospheric warming event, that was also preceded by a separate ... ongoing negative Arctic Oscillation. The combination of those observed the AO to very deep standard deviations via different causal circuitry, which lasted through the vast majority times of the DJF period.  

The -AO is in fact inconsistent with La Nina longer termed climatology, which shows a moderate negative correlation coefficient relationship.  That tends to argue the AO may be more the culprit - which incidentally... IS very consistent with solar minimum. 

I don't personally suspect the La Nina did much to the hemisphere, to be blunt.  We out here in the every day Meteorological community have mused to frustration and humor and back, just how UN La Nina -like the hemispheric base state circulation maintained throughout.  

Having said that... It'll be interesting what those statistics look like as we press through the summer.  The AO is vanquished... there could be a bounce-back as these mid latitudes lose the -AO conveyor.

Also, not intending to discount the La Nina entirely ( equally foolish...), my impression is that mid latitudes of the N. Hemisphere ( to wit, has larger tracts of land-atmospheric coupling/ thermal regulation in the global heat budget )  ...those regions tend to dry out more so in La Nina; this would concomitantly favor temperature resulting warmer than than their 30-year climate averages ... In that sense, we could see this coupling into a correction of sorts.

In short, these first 3 ... 5 months of the year may be the artifact of the AO cooling, but, the hemisphere has yet to realize the typical La Nina warmer than normal late spring and summer just yet.  It may neutralize some of that "cooling" in the net from both AO relaxation(seasonal), and thus "allowing" ( in a sense ...) the La Nina climate to re-assert itself.

As an aside: Also, climate is a meandering course.  It doen't really slide straight up or down along epoch gradations like we see in neat orderly rendering for publications and so forth.  Obviously we're savvy enough in here to know this "serrated" nature of rise and fall, then extended yet further along longer rise and fall derivatives... that are in turn also situated along longer ones that define vast distances of time... blah blah...

This could be a 'down' motion in a slope that really won't deviate - no one in present company suggested otherwise, but... - from the longer term warming.  I can see 'deniers' pouncing on least excuse imagined with this sort of observed behavior in the environment.

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I suppose this is the part where a smorgasbord of usual suspects suggest a short term hiatus disproves the seriousness of AGW. This was the same argument that played out in 2011-2014 and it didn't work out well last time for the naysayers. 

Please refer to the 2012 or 2013 global temperature thread if you want to read prior erroneous declarations from posters. 

 

Global Ocean Heat Content 1955-present 0-2000 m

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