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Global Temperature 2021


blizzard1024
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Global temperature are plummeting due to the strong La Nina.  In many parts of the world, record cold is occuring. The Thames River has froze in parts for the first time in 60 years. The UK had its coldest February day since 1955.  This is short term climatic cooling I realize but now we are seeing below average anomalies for the first time in many many years. Look at Climate Reanalyzer image for today and the CDAS for 00z last evening both negative.  

gfs_world-ced_t2anom_1-day.thumb.png.79086faf635edc14d2ac7084481d245a.png

cdas-all-globe-t2m_c_anom_1day_back-3520000.png.f2b46d5ecfa05f6904ebb67034937b26.png

 

These both show the strong influences of La Nina and the solar minimum on the climate. If this continues 2021 will no doubt be much colder than 2020 and probably begin a downward trend in global temperatures. Of course, El Nino can easily reverse that. So in many ways most of the warming and cooling patterns go along with ENSO. 

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Yes 2021 will be cooler than 2020, but so far there is no indication that the drop will be unusual for a La Nina. I posted this chart a few days ago in the 2020 thread. ENSO conditions currently are very similar to early 2011, but global average temperatures are much warmer. Note that Jan 2021 is above the long-term trend line, while Jan 2011 was below. If we can't get below the trend line, we are going to need a new, steeper one.

Screenshot_2021-02-13 January2021 pdf.png

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Its getting even colder vs the 1979-2000 normal. The Arctic for the first time in many many years is at +0.0C in the winter months. There is a warm blob over the Arctic Ocean but this is unknown territory given it is model data and model climo.  Given the Arctic is normal the assertion that Arctic warming is leading to record cold in Europe/Asia and north America is false. These ideas already have been floated around. They are not true. Look at the data...

 

Capture1.thumb.PNG.263204840aab88a9763d864758321090.PNG 

 

This site has the reanalysis data with a daily temperature of minus .172C the coldest I have seen in many many years. 

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.b6bea2bc9ff609c379db6fb4124f90f4.PNG

 

Of course we all know this is very short term climate and not reflective of long term trends. It does illustrate how much ENSO does affect the global temperature. The mean period for the graph I believe is 1994-2013 and the reanalyzer data is 1979-2000. So relatively to late 20th century and into early 21st century, significant cooling has taken place in a matter of months. Should this La Nina persist, it would be interesting to see if we get back to a negative departure vs 1981-2010 normal or even the 1979-2000 period below. 

 

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On 2/19/2021 at 2:16 PM, blizzard1024 said:

Its getting even colder vs the 1979-2000 normal. The Arctic for the first time in many many years is at +0.0C in the winter months. There is a warm blob over the Arctic Ocean but this is unknown territory given it is model data and model climo.  Given the Arctic is normal the assertion that Arctic warming is leading to record cold in Europe/Asia and north America is false. These ideas already have been floated around. They are not true. Look at the data...

 

Capture1.thumb.PNG.263204840aab88a9763d864758321090.PNG 

 

This site has the reanalysis data with a daily temperature of minus .172C the coldest I have seen in many many years. 

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.b6bea2bc9ff609c379db6fb4124f90f4.PNG

 

Of course we all know this is very short term climate and not reflective of long term trends. It does illustrate how much ENSO does affect the global temperature. The mean period for the graph I believe is 1994-2013 and the reanalyzer data is 1979-2000. So relatively to late 20th century and into early 21st century, significant cooling has taken place in a matter of months. Should this La Nina persist, it would be interesting to see if we get back to a negative departure vs 1981-2010 normal or even the 1979-2000 period below. 

 

That’s a one day chart. Here’s how the Arctic above 80N has fared:

image.png.a47e372bec0c59b1880fb66df91ff26b.png

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10 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

These large-scale perturbations in the recent normals are a signal of increasing hysteresis in the system. In other words the end of the Holocene climate regime is close as we head towards a equable climate with little to none temperature difference between the tropics and polar region.

We're already in the Anthrocene, where humanity is killing off all other species, besides the ones we farm or keep as pets.

 

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Just wish there was a little more humility all around.

With a reliable instrument record dating back two centuries at most, we have no real experience in the inherent variability of the environment.

It would help if there were longer term records of first frosts and such, but afaik, nobody thought that was important until recently.

Hence we get excited whenever our short experience base gets exceeded. Great for papers, not necessarily so for actual understanding.

 

 

icne

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According to the chart above the earth has warmed roughly .8 degrees Celsius since 1980. This is roughly a 2 degrees Celsius of warming per century pace, which is approximately 4 times the pace of the previous century (roughly .5 degrees Celsius of warming). This is evidence that not only is the earth warming, but the rate of warming is rapidly accelerating. It is very concerning that a significant portion of the public does not believe that the earth is warming despite overwhelming evidence that it is. 

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I personally am not sold that any 'apparent' cooling should be readily attributed to La Nina. 

We just experienced a robust sudden stratospheric warming event, that was also preceded by a separate ... ongoing negative Arctic Oscillation. The combination of those observed the AO to very deep standard deviations via different causal circuitry, which lasted through the vast majority times of the DJF period.  

The -AO is in fact inconsistent with La Nina longer termed climatology, which shows a moderate negative correlation coefficient relationship.  That tends to argue the AO may be more the culprit - which incidentally... IS very consistent with solar minimum. 

I don't personally suspect the La Nina did much to the hemisphere, to be blunt.  We out here in the every day Meteorological community have mused to frustration and humor and back, just how UN La Nina -like the hemispheric base state circulation maintained throughout.  

Having said that... It'll be interesting what those statistics look like as we press through the summer.  The AO is vanquished... there could be a bounce-back as these mid latitudes lose the -AO conveyor.

Also, not intending to discount the La Nina entirely ( equally foolish...), my impression is that mid latitudes of the N. Hemisphere ( to wit, has larger tracts of land-atmospheric coupling/ thermal regulation in the global heat budget )  ...those regions tend to dry out more so in La Nina; this would concomitantly favor temperature resulting warmer than than their 30-year climate averages ... In that sense, we could see this coupling into a correction of sorts.

In short, these first 3 ... 5 months of the year may be the artifact of the AO cooling, but, the hemisphere has yet to realize the typical La Nina warmer than normal late spring and summer just yet.  It may neutralize some of that "cooling" in the net from both AO relaxation(seasonal), and thus "allowing" ( in a sense ...) the La Nina climate to re-assert itself.

As an aside: Also, climate is a meandering course.  It doen't really slide straight up or down along epoch gradations like we see in neat orderly rendering for publications and so forth.  Obviously we're savvy enough in here to know this "serrated" nature of rise and fall, then extended yet further along longer rise and fall derivatives... that are in turn also situated along longer ones that define vast distances of time... blah blah...

This could be a 'down' motion in a slope that really won't deviate - no one in present company suggested otherwise, but... - from the longer term warming.  I can see 'deniers' pouncing on least excuse imagined with this sort of observed behavior in the environment.

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I suppose this is the part where a smorgasbord of usual suspects suggest a short term hiatus disproves the seriousness of AGW. This was the same argument that played out in 2011-2014 and it didn't work out well last time for the naysayers. 

Please refer to the 2012 or 2013 global temperature thread if you want to read prior erroneous declarations from posters. 

 

Global Ocean Heat Content 1955-present 0-2000 m

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  • 7 months later...

Some evidence for an increase in the rate of global warming in the past 20 years. Chart below accounts for ENSO and volcanoes, the main sources of natural variability. The trend differences are only statistically significant in some datasets, so need to run more clock before getting too excited.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2021/10/18/an-honest-appraisal-of-the-global-temperature-trend-part-2/

 

 

Temptrendlast20.png

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On 10/19/2021 at 6:53 AM, chubbs said:

Some evidence for an increase in the rate of global warming in the past 20 years. Chart below accounts for ENSO and volcanoes, the main sources of natural variability. The trend differences are only statistically significant in some datasets, so need to run more clock before getting too excited.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2021/10/18/an-honest-appraisal-of-the-global-temperature-trend-part-2/

 

 

Temptrendlast20.png

is this volcano in the Canary Is going to have any affect on the climate?

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 2/19/2021 at 2:16 PM, blizzard1024 said:

Its getting even colder vs the 1979-2000 normal. The Arctic for the first time in many many years is at +0.0C in the winter months. There is a warm blob over the Arctic Ocean but this is unknown territory given it is model data and model climo.  Given the Arctic is normal the assertion that Arctic warming is leading to record cold in Europe/Asia and north America is false. These ideas already have been floated around. They are not true. Look at the data...

 

Capture1.thumb.PNG.263204840aab88a9763d864758321090.PNG 

 

This site has the reanalysis data with a daily temperature of minus .172C the coldest I have seen in many many years. 

 

Capture.thumb.PNG.b6bea2bc9ff609c379db6fb4124f90f4.PNG

 

Of course we all know this is very short term climate and not reflective of long term trends. It does illustrate how much ENSO does affect the global temperature. The mean period for the graph I believe is 1994-2013 and the reanalyzer data is 1979-2000. So relatively to late 20th century and into early 21st century, significant cooling has taken place in a matter of months. Should this La Nina persist, it would be interesting to see if we get back to a negative departure vs 1981-2010 normal or even the 1979-2000 period below. 

 

Where's Blizz? Torchy recently considering the enso state.  We should get some nina-related cooling this winter. Guessing we will be even warmer next fall, if the nina relaxes. We'll see.

Oct2021.png

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  • 3 weeks later...
10 hours ago, chubbs said:

Screenshot 2021-11-23 at 08-10-33 Kevin Anchukaitis ( thirstygecko) Twitter.png

Thought that tree rings measure warm season moisture, rather than temperature.

Separately, I have to question this graph, if only because the Briffa tree ring data showed a decline since the mid 1900s, which is not reflected here. 

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12 hours ago, etudiant said:

Thought that tree rings measure warm season moisture, rather than temperature.

Separately, I have to question this graph, if only because the Briffa tree ring data showed a decline since the mid 1900s, which is not reflected here. 

Believe he is taking a temperature reconstruction, which comes from tree rings and a number of other sources, and putting it in tree ring format. Below is the latest - going back 24,000 years. Note chart below is global, while chart above is northern Hemi.

Screenshot 2021-11-24 at 06-28-25 Jessica Tierney ( leafwax) Twitter.png

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On 11/6/2021 at 9:36 AM, chubbs said:

Where's Blizz? Torchy recently considering the enso state.  We should get some nina-related cooling this winter. Guessing we will be even warmer next fall, if the nina relaxes. We'll see.

Oct2021.png

Blizz posts are usually a good, contrarian indicator and a solid sign we've hit bottom on a short-term trend.

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On 11/24/2021 at 5:31 AM, chubbs said:

Believe he is taking a temperature reconstruction, which comes from tree rings and a number of other sources, and putting it in tree ring format. Below is the latest - going back 24,000 years. Note chart below is global, while chart above is northern Hemi.

Screenshot 2021-11-24 at 06-28-25 Jessica Tierney ( leafwax) Twitter.png

This the Osman et al. 2021 publication. A non-paywalled version can be found here. It's yet another hockey-stick graph. As I often tell others we have a whole hockey league of hockey-stick graphs now. They come out so often now that it's nearly impossible to keep track of them all anymore.

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22 hours ago, bdgwx said:

This the Osman et al. 2021 publication. A non-paywalled version can be found here. It's yet another hockey-stick graph. As I often tell others we have a whole hockey league of hockey-stick graphs now. They come out so often now that it's nearly impossible to keep track of them all anymore.

I used to muse in writing years ago. There's a coarser sort of orbital perspective on this whole thing.

     '...It took this planet some three and one-half billion years to create and stow all these volatile, reactive fossil-fuel chemistries; humanity comes along with their innovating force and threatens to liberate all that storage back into the system in what amounts to just the last two centuries: How can that happen without consequence? '

Obviously there is some hyperbole gracing this delivery, intended to gaslight the intuitive, obvious answer to the question:  We likely can't.  We have not liberated ALL fossil-fuel volatile chemistry back to the reactive environment, not in just the last 200 years.  However, the rate in mass conversion we are succeeding, in the delta, vastly exceeds any comparison to any Millennia prior to the Industrial Revolution. 

You know ... Archeological science approximates 400,000 years since the first Homo Sapiens would add proxy over fire, to their tool-chest.  It can be argued, that was the moment in time that would inevitably lead to one day's shimmering brilliant achievement of humanity: Hiroshima. A dire story that took 400,000 years ( give or take ..) to play out its thematic arc.  Yet, as 'hot' as Hiroshima was ... it doesn't even register on the same scale as the amount of energy being/been stored int the atmosphere by Anthropogenic Global Warming.  A story-line that is still being written. 

Chapter one, Africa, 400,000 years ago.  After an elevated dry-cumulonimbus generated a lightning bolt that set the savanna afire, instead of running along side with all the other animals, and probably, like most of the tribe did that faithful day, ..."Groont" lagged behind. He or she instead picked up a stick as it burned at one end.  It was probably a she, then a male saw her do this, grabbed it from her.  And after a moment or two of gazing into the plasma as it danced along the other end, his attention then drew toward the miasma rising at a distance. Purpose replaced fear, and thus humanity claimed "victory" over the 'strange orange light.' 

It would be ironic if that victory would ultimately lead to the greatest loss of all.

It seems as though there must be some sort of as yet proven 'Law of uncertain quotas' in complex systems that perturb reality.  Just knowing about the propagation of fractal systems, seems there has to be.  Almost like an 'emergence product function.'   It would go like, 'for every 1 direct result of cause --> effect produced, there are 3 emergence:  a secondary ... a subsequent tertiary ( meaning emergent because of the 2nd order ),'  and on and so one.   Such that if there are 2 direct ... the subsequent polynomial becomes complex really quickly as we add more direct consequence - that don't have to be laterally related, just existing as a result of the primary event.  

This fiction or something like this may be why these "different" graphs keep materializing.  If there were ten direct results of AGW, there is perhaps a logarithmic increase in plausible unknown, silent-to-the-observer systemic responses. Meanwhile humanity's genius after the fire ... like a Gulliver's Travels through the Millennia. We were perhaps by a quirk in evolution, inextricably enticed by the allure of innovation; but meddling results in being overcome by Lilliputians.

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The difficult part is abandoning your rationale and accepting that it wasn't inevitable. It was inevitable as far as civilization is concerned but there will be a post-civilization et al world.

We can learn from our mistakes and close Pandora's box. I am not even going to predict if it will even be possible to restart civilization. It's highly doubtful however.

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On 11/29/2021 at 11:04 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I used to muse in writing years ago. There's a coarser sort of orbital perspective on this whole thing.

     '...It took this planet some three and one-half billion years to create and stow all these volatile, reactive fossil-fuel chemistries; humanity comes along with their innovating force and threatens to liberate all that storage back into the system in what amounts to just the last two centuries: How can that happen without consequence? '

Obviously there is some hyperbole gracing this delivery, intended to gaslight the intuitive, obvious answer to the question:  We likely can't.  We have not liberated ALL fossil-fuel volatile chemistry back to the reactive environment, not in just the last 200 years.  However, the rate in mass conversion we are succeeding, in the delta, vastly exceeds any comparison to any Millennia prior to the Industrial Revolution. 

You know ... Archeological science approximates 400,000 years since the first Homo Sapiens would add proxy over fire, to their tool-chest.  It can be argued, that was the moment in time that would inevitably lead to one day's shimmering brilliant achievement of humanity: Hiroshima. A dire story that took 400,000 years ( give or take ..) to play out its thematic arc.  Yet, as 'hot' as Hiroshima was ... it doesn't even register on the same scale as the amount of energy being/been stored int the atmosphere by Anthropogenic Global Warming.  A story-line that is still being written. 

Chapter one, Africa, 400,000 years ago.  After an elevated dry-cumulonimbus generated a lightning bolt that set the savanna afire, instead of running along side with all the other animals, and probably, like most of the tribe did that faithful day, ..."Groont" lagged behind. He or she instead picked up a stick as it burned at one end.  It was probably a she, then a male saw her do this, grabbed it from her.  And after a moment or two of gazing into the plasma as it danced along the other end, his attention then drew toward the miasma rising at a distance. Purpose replaced fear, and thus humanity claimed "victory" over the 'strange orange light.' 

It would be ironic if that victory would ultimately lead to the greatest loss of all.

It seems as though there must be some sort of as yet proven 'Law of uncertain quotas' in complex systems that perturb reality.  Just knowing about the propagation of fractal systems, seems there has to be.  Almost like an 'emergence product function.'   It would go like, 'for every 1 direct result of cause --> effect produced, there are 3 emergence:  a secondary ... a subsequent tertiary ( meaning emergent because of the 2nd order ),'  and on and so one.   Such that if there are 2 direct ... the subsequent polynomial becomes complex really quickly as we add more direct consequence - that don't have to be laterally related, just existing as a result of the primary event.  

This fiction or something like this may be why these "different" graphs keep materializing.  If there were ten direct results of AGW, there is perhaps a logarithmic increase in plausible unknown, silent-to-the-observer systemic responses. Meanwhile humanity's genius after the fire ... like a Gulliver's Travels through the Millennia. We were perhaps by a quirk in evolution, inextricably enticed by the allure of innovation; but meddling results in being overcome by Lilliputians.

I'm also wondering how many more variants we can get and will we make it to the end of the Greek alphabet and get to an Omega variant? If that happened it would be so scary....aside from what comes after Omega I had a thought in my head about how symbolic the letter Omega is.  It could be "The One to end them all"..... a zombie virus (many think these are fiction but we actually see zombie parasites in the natural world, there is one that latches onto the brains of ants and makes them attack each other).....imagine if there was ever a human zombie virus like that and it ended up being the Omega variant?  That would almost make it seem like reality is scripted like a movie lol, like everything is leading up to that eventual final climax.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/326871#1.-Zombie-ants

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/326871#2.-Zombie-spiders

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/326871#3.-The-reanimated-virus

This last one is especially interesting

In 2014, researchers from the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique at Aix–Marseille Université in France dug a fascinating organism out of the Siberian permafrost: a so-called giant virus, about 30,000 years old, which they named Pithovirus sibericum.

Giant viruses are called this way because, though still tiny, they are easily visible under the microscope. But there is something else that makes P. sibericum stand apart. It is a DNA virus that contains a large number of genes — as many as 500, to be precise.

This is in stark contrast with other DNA viruses, such as the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which only contains about 12 genes in all.

The size of giant viruses, as well as the fact that they contain such a large amount of DNA, can make them particularly dangerous, explain the researchers who discovered P. sibericum since they can stick around for an extremely long time.

“Among known viruses, the giant viruses tend to be very tough, almost impossible to break open,” explain two of the virus’s discoverers, Jean-Michel Claverie and Chantal Abergel, in an interview for National Geographic.

“Special environments such as deep ocean sediments and permafrost are very good preservers of microbes [and viruses] because they are cold, anoxic [oxygen-free], and […] dark,” they add.

When “reanimated, P. sibericum only infected amoebas — archaic unicellular organisms — but happily not humans or other animals. Yet Claverie and Abergel warn that there may be similar giant viruses buried inside the permafrost that could prove dangerous to humans.

Though they have remained safely contained so far, global heating and human action could cause them to resurface and come back to life, which might bring about unknown threats to health.

“Mining and drilling mean […] digging through these ancient layers for the first time in millions of years. If ‘viable’ [viruses] are still there, this is a good recipe for disaster.”
Jean-Michel Claverie and Chantal Abergel

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On 11/29/2021 at 11:04 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I used to muse in writing years ago. There's a coarser sort of orbital perspective on this whole thing.

     '...It took this planet some three and one-half billion years to create and stow all these volatile, reactive fossil-fuel chemistries; humanity comes along with their innovating force and threatens to liberate all that storage back into the system in what amounts to just the last two centuries: How can that happen without consequence? '

Obviously there is some hyperbole gracing this delivery, intended to gaslight the intuitive, obvious answer to the question:  We likely can't.  We have not liberated ALL fossil-fuel volatile chemistry back to the reactive environment, not in just the last 200 years.  However, the rate in mass conversion we are succeeding, in the delta, vastly exceeds any comparison to any Millennia prior to the Industrial Revolution. 

You know ... Archeological science approximates 400,000 years since the first Homo Sapiens would add proxy over fire, to their tool-chest.  It can be argued, that was the moment in time that would inevitably lead to one day's shimmering brilliant achievement of humanity: Hiroshima. A dire story that took 400,000 years ( give or take ..) to play out its thematic arc.  Yet, as 'hot' as Hiroshima was ... it doesn't even register on the same scale as the amount of energy being/been stored int the atmosphere by Anthropogenic Global Warming.  A story-line that is still being written. 

Chapter one, Africa, 400,000 years ago.  After an elevated dry-cumulonimbus generated a lightning bolt that set the savanna afire, instead of running along side with all the other animals, and probably, like most of the tribe did that faithful day, ..."Groont" lagged behind. He or she instead picked up a stick as it burned at one end.  It was probably a she, then a male saw her do this, grabbed it from her.  And after a moment or two of gazing into the plasma as it danced along the other end, his attention then drew toward the miasma rising at a distance. Purpose replaced fear, and thus humanity claimed "victory" over the 'strange orange light.' 

It would be ironic if that victory would ultimately lead to the greatest loss of all.

It seems as though there must be some sort of as yet proven 'Law of uncertain quotas' in complex systems that perturb reality.  Just knowing about the propagation of fractal systems, seems there has to be.  Almost like an 'emergence product function.'   It would go like, 'for every 1 direct result of cause --> effect produced, there are 3 emergence:  a secondary ... a subsequent tertiary ( meaning emergent because of the 2nd order ),'  and on and so one.   Such that if there are 2 direct ... the subsequent polynomial becomes complex really quickly as we add more direct consequence - that don't have to be laterally related, just existing as a result of the primary event.  

This fiction or something like this may be why these "different" graphs keep materializing.  If there were ten direct results of AGW, there is perhaps a logarithmic increase in plausible unknown, silent-to-the-observer systemic responses. Meanwhile humanity's genius after the fire ... like a Gulliver's Travels through the Millennia. We were perhaps by a quirk in evolution, inextricably enticed by the allure of innovation; but meddling results in being overcome by Lilliputians.

It seems as though there must be some sort of as yet proven 'Law of uncertain quotas' in complex systems that perturb reality.  Just knowing about the propagation of fractal systems, seems there has to be.  Almost like an 'emergence product function.'   It would go like, 'for every 1 direct result of cause --> effect produced, there are 3 emergence:  a secondary ... a subsequent tertiary ( meaning emergent because of the 2nd order ),'  and on and so one.   Such that if there are 2 direct ... the subsequent polynomial becomes complex really quickly as we add more direct consequence - that don't have to be laterally related, just existing as a result of the primary event. 

 

Nature actually works in this way, there are simple patterns in seemingly complex human behavior that mimics nature, it is part of group theory, where for example, the timings of bus drivers in Mexico matches the grouping of cells in the eyes of chickens.  There is a well known formula that exists in nature and humans that maximizes efficiency.

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