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Hoosier

February 14-16 Winter Storm

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5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Nice lake event for Chicago. Pretty rare times for totals like that in ne ill. Hrrr model 

Screenshot_20210214-025547_Samsung Internet.jpg

Umm.. HRRR a little Teste with the lake enhancement. 

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I could see it happen hamilton ontario got 15 to 20 inches past couple days. And on north west side of lake Michigan got got with 20 inches near escanaba today. So there's been a history of historic lake snows in areas past few days that don't get much normaly.

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I haven’t been this excited about a storm in years! Our local stations are still only calling for 3-4 inches here in Indy. I have a feeling quite a few people are going to wake up surprised Tuesday morning! 

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5 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Nice lake event for Chicago. Pretty rare times for totals like that in ne ill. Hrrr model 

Screenshot_20210214-025547_Samsung Internet.jpg

I about fainted when I saw that run lol.  Still going nicely at the end of the run.

Something with this high of a ceiling doesn't come around too often for the northwest tip of Indiana and especially Chicago.  It's not like the traditional snowbelts where you get good chances more often.  Yeah there's some synoptic snow to fall back on, but it would sting if this one doesn't live up and produce 12+

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^that is crazy to see dual maxes of about 18"+.  Imagine what could happen if it stalled out in one place for longer than expected.

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1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

Lets don't confuse this for February 1910. I see this having a large 8-12 inch area in eastern Indiana/western half Ohio, which is impressive. But it isn't necessarily historical, which is when you get 3-4 threads. 1-2 threads will be more than enough probably in the end.

Yeah I totally was going to get this confused with Feb of 1910, I was such a young spry kid back then.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Add this to the pound town models.  

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2021021400_78_2250_220.thumb.png.39c1fd24fcc53c5344b6db66f2a25e23.png

Right in the bullseye on that one. However I’m fully preparing myself for a only few bands sweeping through while any main show sets up just to the east. Hopefully wrong but it’s hard to be excited when a few miles in any direction can make a break you on snow totals.

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LOT
 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WATCH:  
  
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COOK COUNTY AND LAKE   
COUNTY IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO  
THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT LAKE   
EFFECT SNOW EVENT.  
  
OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN   
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL COUNTIES   
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO THE   
EXPECTATION OF 2 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE NEXT   
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  

LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND   
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. MOST NOTABLE, IS THE STRONG SIGNAL IN FORECAST   
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER   
CONVERGENCE BAND ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. THIS   
LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROMINENT SINGLE BAND OF   
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING, LIKELY INITIALLY IMPACTING PORTER  
IN. THERMODYAMICS OVER THE LAKE LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VERY   
HEAVY SNOW RATES IN THIS DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW, WITH LAKE INDUCED  
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOKING TO TOP OUT AROUND 6-7,000 FEET LATE TONIGHT   
AND ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT  
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING, SIGNS POINT AT IT SHIFTING   
WESTWARD OVER LAKE COUNTY IN LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT   
TONIGHT, BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING OVER PARTS OF COOK COUNTY ON MONDAY.  
  
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THAT PARTS OF COOK COUNTY, INCLUDING  
MUCH OF THE CITY OF CHICAGO COULD BE IN THE LINE OF FIRE FROM THIS  
POTENTIAL BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY.  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THIS BAND OF   
SNOW, WE COULD SEE SOME AMOUNTS TOTAL UP WELL OVER 6" IN PARTS OF   
THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO   
SEE SOME AREAS SEE IN EXCESS OF A FOOT.   
  
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREA, AN APPROACH WEATHER DISTURBANCE   
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY   
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND BETTER MOISTURE LOOK TO FAVOR   
EAST CENTRAL IL AND INTO IN FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE AREA   
(2 TO 5"). THIS IS THE GENERAL AREA IN WHICH WE ISSUED THE WINTER   
WEATHER ADVISORY. LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK PROBABLE   
FARTHER NORTH, FOR INLAND AREAS OF CHICAGO METRO. DRIER AIR POTENTIAL   
WILL RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO A DUSTING OVER FAR   
NORTH CENTRAL IL.  
  
THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY   
COLD, WITH NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS TO -25 REMAINING PROBABLE THROUGH   
MONDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON, THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED  
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
  
BKL/KJB  

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I'm within my model semi trust range of 24hrs.  Some of the 06Z runs are pretty impressive with synoptic snow of 6in up to Chicago.  I'm going to call 8 here by 12Z Tuesday.  I think some of the lower amount models are undercutting ratios, some as low as 12:1 from some of the soundings.  Not buying .4 -.5 qpf through 72 hours with 5 or 6 inches of snow.  We should see 15:1 minimum around here even with fairly warm 700mb temps at times.  Think its going to be more like a "mountain" snow with cold temps and a pretty deep DGZ nearly to the surface, light wind, nice size flakes, moderate to heavy at times, but a solid 24hrs of it. :weenie: 

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image.thumb.png.7ed1e7379b76a88745bfaa7be66054d0.png

 

Classic lowball advisory calling for 5"-7" here. NWS must not be buying the NW bumps yet. Even though I'm in a warning, I feel like areas to my NW will out perform. 

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I’m a teacher and have lurked on these boards during winter for probably the last three or four years- always love a snow day.

Lived in Blacksburg VA for a bit, then DFW last year and now I am back near home in Columbus teaching 4th grade. Sometimes I show my class the Tropical Tidbits models and they love it. I saw the call for lurkers to post so figured I would.. excited for the storm!

If we get Tuesday off it would be 3 straight Tuesday snow days- not bad. Unless they make us teach remotely, though it seems that if they have to close the buildings for admin they just give us a real snow day. 

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Euro bumpin again. If the guidance trends are to be believed, our amounts aside from LES going to need to be adjusted upward and headlines are going to need to be adjusted northwest today.

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

 

 

Classic lowball advisory calling for 5"-7" here. NWS must not be buying the NW bumps yet. Even though I'm in a warning, I feel like areas to my NW will out perform. 

Is that Northern IN or fringe of ILN CWA? I know the criteria is different the further North you go. 

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.

9 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

image.thumb.png.7ed1e7379b76a88745bfaa7be66054d0.png

 

Classic lowball advisory calling for 5"-7" here. NWS must not be buying the NW bumps yet. Even though I'm in a warning, I feel like areas to my NW will out perform. 

 I hope DTX doesn't issue any headlines because when they're too conservative they always get burned and we end up with a good storm. Every winter there's a storm where they issue an advisory then upgrade to a warning an hour after 8 inches has already fallen. They've always sucked.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Euro bumpin again. If the guidance trends are to be believed, our amounts aside from LES going to need to be adjusted upward and headlines are going to need to be adjusted northwest today.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Im sure we wouldn't mind if you generously posted the weenie kuchera for this. Thanks in advance.

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Just now, Stevo6899 said:

Im sure we wouldn't mind if you generously posted the weenie kuchera for this. Thanks in advance.

It is 12-15" for Detroit 

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Just now, fyrfyter said:

Is that Northern IN or fringe of ILN CWA? I know the criteria is different the further North you go. 

It's both northern IN, ILN, and CLE. From what I've read so far is ILN is treating this as a two part storm and they don't think those areas will reach warning criteria from either wave, despite ending up with 8" overall.

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