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BullCityWx

Ice/Snow threat Friday-Sunday

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8 minutes ago, btownheel said:

Think that's where it pulls from, yes, and agreed.  Been a full 2 degrees off the car thermometer on the high side for several weeks across town.  

Doesnt much add up when you look at PWS stations and other obs like TDF and GSO. 

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Just now, rowjimmy73 said:

hrrr loves southside 

 

Yeah, this is setting up sub obtimal in a circle from about MTV to South Boston down to the triad and NW triangle.

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NWS RNK AFD at 11:30

With regard to tonight, significant icing is expected as the
baroclinic zone lifts a bit northwest in response to upper
ridging off the southeast/Mid-Atlantic coast. Warm air aloft
will support mostly rain across these areas with temperatures
below freezing as the wedge holds in tough overnight. Ice
accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch appear likely and possibly more
east of the Blue Ridge where current plans are to go with a
Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Weather Advisory to the west.
More on that later this afternoon, but a serious icing event
looks probable for areas like Danville, Lynchburg, South Boston,
and other cities in this general area. Stay tuned for updates
forthcoming this afternoon.
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Just now, HoosTC said:

NWS RNK AFD at 11:30

With regard to tonight, significant icing is expected as the
baroclinic zone lifts a bit northwest in response to upper
ridging off the southeast/Mid-Atlantic coast. Warm air aloft
will support mostly rain across these areas with temperatures
below freezing as the wedge holds in tough overnight. Ice
accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch appear likely and possibly more
east of the Blue Ridge where current plans are to go with a
Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Weather Advisory to the west.
More on that later this afternoon, but a serious icing event
looks probable for areas like Danville, Lynchburg, South Boston,
and other cities in this general area. Stay tuned for updates
forthcoming this afternoon.

Not surprised.  Prime location with continue low DP air filtering down from NVA.  

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Just now, HoosTC said:

NWS RNK AFD at 11:30

With regard to tonight, significant icing is expected as the
baroclinic zone lifts a bit northwest in response to upper
ridging off the southeast/Mid-Atlantic coast. Warm air aloft
will support mostly rain across these areas with temperatures
below freezing as the wedge holds in tough overnight. Ice
accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch appear likely and possibly more
east of the Blue Ridge where current plans are to go with a
Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Weather Advisory to the west.
More on that later this afternoon, but a serious icing event
looks probable for areas like Danville, Lynchburg, South Boston,
and other cities in this general area. Stay tuned for updates
forthcoming this afternoon.

Oh wow. That's what I was wondering. It's about to get real...

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1 minute ago, magpiemaniac said:

The 18z HRRR will be telling.  I’m beginning to think that the CAD might be underestimated.

Agreed. It is very common here in these types of situations for CAD to be underestimated, in strength but especially duration.

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8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

:yikes:

hrrr-nc-dew2m_f-3185200.png

30* might do some light work on us but those 28s* are going to be grim for a few folks

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

30* might do some light work on us but those 28s* are going to be grim for a few folks

Yeah, it's a huge difference between 32 and 30 and between 30 and 28. At 28, everything will freeze solid.

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Some tv mets seem to be walking back their “no or little ice accumulation expected” forecasts.  No accumulation has become glaze possible.  Glaze possible has become up to 0.10”.  Up to 0.10” has become up to 0.20”.

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

By 6 Am , the HRRR already has us getting over 1/4" of ICE

im watching it closely. keeps dp's down arounbd 28/29 in southside, going to be a verifiable skating rink in the am if so.

 

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

By 6 Am , the HRRR already has us getting over 1/4" of ICE

Pretty solid chance you will be Frozen Fork tomorrow morning.

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7 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Some tv mets seem to be walking back their “no or little ice accumulation expected” forecasts.  No accumulation has become glaze possible.  Glaze possible has become up to 0.10”.  Up to 0.10” has become up to 0.20”.

over 0.20" starts to become the flicky flicker

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I suspect we'll see ISW's going up over the next few hours.  I guess RAH could make an argument for staying at an advisory, but that seems a bit of a stretch.  Every model I've seen on the 12z or later runs are showing warning criteria zr in the triad.  For fun, check out the new Euro at 144........ let the trend begin.  

TW

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