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BuffaloWeather

Major LES Events- Feb 5-?

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Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said:

No, winds are still ripping. Port Colborne just had a gust to 59mph in the last few minutes. BUF still gusting to 40. Probably close to 50 on the lake front. 

Nope its dry air. Winds don't cause bands to completely go away, they cause multi banding structure and cellular cells to take place. Dry air causes the band to entirely disappear.

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Some moisture will be added pretty shortly in next few hours and get the bands going again. Hopefully its one band and not two.

 

It looks like what popping back up again over the middle of the lake is going to be 2 bands again. This event blows (literally haha). 

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3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

It looks like what popping back up again over the middle of the lake is going to be 2 bands again. This event blows (literally haha). 

As a Northern Erie County Resident you should love the double band.  It's your best shot in these close scenarios. 

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9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Nope its dry air. Winds don't cause bands to completely go away, they cause multi banding structure and cellular cells to take place. Dry air causes the band to entirely disappear.

You are right looking at lower level WV there was a small pocket of dry air that just moved overhead. Looks like it’s moving off to our east now so hopefully things will come back soon. However if these winds don’t calm down this new band(s) is going to be just as disorganized as the first. 40-60mph will shred that thing to pieces. 

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

As a Northern Erie County Resident you should love the double band.  It's your best shot in these close scenarios. 

Sometimes we do okay on the single intense bands that oscillate (like the day after Xmas event this season). Band is focused on the southtowns but temporarily lifts north into the Northtowns and even Niagara County for a bit before dropping slowly back south and we get to see it a few times. I got a foot with that event.  I’m not sure we will even see half that with this event. One thing for sure is even without snow falling there is very low visibility at times driving around with those winds. 

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Total bust here. Impossible to measure what fell, but if it’s an inch I would be surprised. It’s hard to believe that there have ever been any events where the part of the metro north of the Thruway got jackpotted. What used to be a rare event is now a near impossibility. Variables have to line up perfectly for the northern part of the metro to get buried, and any inconsistency between weather models means that those variables aren’t going to work out. It’s frustrating, because Watertown is on an almost identical heading off Ontario as North Buffalo/Ken-Ton/Snyder/Amherst is off Erie, yet the same conditions that have bulls-eyed Watertown give the shaft to the northern third of Erie County.

We’re at the point now there the best that downtown and north can hope for is that a backing flow sends a transient band overhead for a couple of hours. At best, the sloppy seconds from the southtowns will put down a few inches on the way up and on the way back down. Over the last 5-10 years, the very best lake events for us are ones where the band firehoses for half a day, passing though a few times before stabilizing in OP or Hamburg or more often even further south in ski country and putting down the real snow. The closest thing to a northern Erie storm since 2006 are the occasional events where the backing flow stops in a heading from South Buffalo to the airport, and puts down 15-18 inches  before sinking down to Springville or Chautauqua County to drop 30-40 inches.

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It’s coming down pretty good on the eastern edge of the band towards town line I’d say some 2-3”/hr stuff.9-D7-E60-D5-A759-41-BD-9097-A5-B3-E400-C

A6215-B35-F30-C-40-C6-9-E66-EBFE501-ACCF

CFA2710-D-44-CE-4-D94-A029-D98752-D116-D

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1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said:

The orientation of the bands look to be backing, north of Cleveland.

 

 

Both bands look to be converging around the city by 8-9am??

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Not so much here 3 or 4 at best and this band has weakened considerably, in and out of heavier snow almost cellular like. Good news is it’s not moving and should merge.

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3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Yeah eyeballing looks like about 3-4” total here. Not impressed at all. Honestly Batavia looks to be in the best spot as that’s where the two bands are converging.

Intensity has picked up again moderate to almost heavy, very little wind ATM

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5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Yeah eyeballing looks like about 3-4” total here. Not impressed at all. Honestly Batavia looks to be in the best spot as that’s where the two bands are converging.

The southern band does appear to be shifting north. This could get pretty interesting around 9am or so

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