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Feb 5-20, 2021 arctic cold


beavis1729
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1 hour ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Low of -18 again in the city. UHI flexed it’s muscles as New Richmond WI 40 miles east got down to -35

Wow. Dropped to -3 here with 1-2” of fluff overnight. :snowman:
 

This overall set-up is fairly typical of arctic outbreaks. At the beginning of the outbreak, it’s more advection driven...then towards the end the radiators win out. A -35 temp at 45N in mid February is extremely impressive. 

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Ice compare for western Lake Superior. Feb 7 & 15. Didn't take long. And BTW, a bunch of fisherman needed rescue off the Duluth shore as the ice broke off and drifted NE. Caught them off guard. LOL And they have to pay for it, too. MN law went into effect back in the 90's because this happened so much. Costs a few bucks for the rescue squad to do it's job.

 

Feb 7 ice.gif

Feb 15 ice.gif

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May need to double-check the #'s...but Dallas's high temp today (14) was colder than the old daily record low (15) set in 1909. :stun: Normals are 60/39.

Even more impressive, OKC's high temp today was 4.  Old record low was 7 set in 1909.  Normals are 55/33.

This is incredible for stations with a POR > 100 years.

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19 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

May need to double-check the #'s...but Dallas's high temp today (14) was colder than the old daily record low (15) set in 1909. :stun:

Normals are 60/39.

That's true. And low max record was 31 in 1909. If 14 is official, then that's 2nd coldest max in Feb with 12 on 2/12/1899 being 1st. Smashed!!

It would be tied for 3rd for low max in the entire record. 12 (2/12/1899),  13 (12/24/1983), 14 (12/22/1989)

Edit: The morning low tomorrow looks to be top 5 or even 3 for the entire record. Awesome cold. Bet they are freaking out down there. :)

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Nearly historic cold in NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL (EDITED 2/17/21 to correct some temps and add some commentary)

Lincoln NE -31 (49 degrees below normal, 2nd coldest temp since records began in 1887...-33 on 1/12/1974)

Sioux City IA -28

Concordia KS -22

Manhattan KS -20

Fayetteville AR -20

Wichita KS -16

Topeka KS -16

Oklahoma City OK -14 (coldest since 2/12/1899)

Tulsa OK -13 (close to all-time low of -17)

Amarillo TX -11

Wichita Falls TX -8

Tyler TX -6 (new all-time low)

Longview TX -5 (new all-time low)

Dallas TX -2

Shreveport, LA 1

Memphis, TN 1

Austin TX 8

San Antonio TX 9

Houston TX 13

Baton Rouge LA 20

Galveston TX 20

Mobile AL 20

McAllen TX 22

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7 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Nearly historic cold in OK, KS, TX, LA...

Concordia KS -22

Manhattan KS -20

Wichita KS -16

Tulsa OK -13 (close to all-time low of -17)

Oklahoma City, OK -12

Amarillo TX -11

Tyler TX -6 (new all-time low)

Longview TX -5 (new all-time low)

Dallas TX -1

Shreveport, LA 1

Austin TX 8

San Antonio TX 9

Houston TX 13

Baton Rouge LA 20

Galveston TX 20

McAllen TX 22

You didn't list Fayetteville, AR but they were at -20 this morning. Also, Jim Cantore said DFW was -2, not -1.

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Thanks to this cold wave. Madison is averaging all of 3.7 for the month. That is a -20 departure. Even if we warm up significantly the 2nd half of the month we are almost 100% below average for this month. There is a very good chance of being colder then February 2015 for average when it's all set and done.

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3 hours ago, Snownado said:

You didn't list Fayetteville, AR but they were at -20 this morning. Also, Jim Cantore said DFW was -2, not -1.

Thanks for the corrections...was going off hourly obs for the most part, so some places may have dropped a bit lower intra-hour.

Looks like the -20 in Fayetteville is a new all-time record (old record -18).

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Very nice discussion by STL crew regarding the final days of the arctic air mass: 

.LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 426 AM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

Deterministic guidance is now in good agreement for Thursday.  Where
in past runs there were a range of solutions, some producing another
significant snow storm for the area, the latest GFS and ECMWF both
keep the entire area dry on Thursday as the trough aloft continues
to dig into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in low level cyclogenesis
along the coast.  The Mid Mississippi Valley is too far back into
the cold/dry Arctic air on Thursday.  Even the GEFS >0.01 QPF
probability map has only 10-20% over our far southern counties, and
the more likely chances down across the Bootheel.  I did leave some
token slight chance PoPs in for parts of the area on Thursday to
cover those very low chances in the ensemble, but if the trend
continues we`ll be able to pull those by this afternoon.

The remainder of the forecast will be characterized by a warming
trend into the weekend and early next week as the upper level
pattern shifts.  The persistent eddy in the northern stream that`s
been hanging over the CONUS and keeping us locked in such a cold
surface pattern over the past week will finally fill in and move
east.  This pattern shift will finally shut the door to the Arctic
which had been left standing open since February 6th and
temperatures will begin warming back toward normal.  The snow
pack will slow our moderation down somewhat, and it`s unlikely
highs will get above freezing until at least Saturday.  However, by
Monday it could be a balmy mid to upper 40s across the area.

Carney

 

 

 

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In the teens here in the Northland. WOO HOO! Furnace is getting a little reprieve from the 10 min kick-ins over the past 10 days.

Looks like a similar setup to 1989 depending on anomalies for the rest of the month, especially in the West.

 

 

Feb 1989 anomaly.png

Feb 1-15 anom US.png

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Should get down under -10 tonight, and that will make tomorrow the 12th day in a row with a subzero reading.  There's a chance we can add 3 more days to that streak if things work out Thu-Sat.  Tomorrow night and Thu night are currently expected to barely stay above zero.  Mean temp so far for Feb is a bone chilling 6.6°!

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2 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Per the NWS at MSP:

281 consecutive hours with a windchill of zero or below.  2/4-2/16

116 consecutive hours with an air temperature of zero or below.   2/11-2/16

225 cumulative hours spent below zero in February so far. (Most since 1936)

 

 

 

Feb 1936 was a rough one.

 

feb 1936 anom.png

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