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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2


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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'll put what i think is a "fun" battle out there as 2 camps seem formed on our board.  

Camp 1 - seems to think too much cold is bad and leads t suppression depression.

Camp 2 - says how much of that modeled cold has come to light in the last few years?

To further the point/debate, I'd love to see stats on % of storms that came north inside of 48 to 72 vs how many ended up south inside same time frame?  Thats what I/some have been driving at. 

I'd wager wmspt's money (since hes got the most snow chips right now) that 75% or more came N and not S in said timeframe.  

I'm definitely in the camp that many more have come north. Off the top of my head, 75% is probably safe - it might be higher than that.

I got tired of saying last year how temps were almost without exception higher than modeled. It happens all the time. I'm saying that as a generalization, not specific to modeled arctic air days out. However, I also agree that a lot of modeled arctic air has modified before it reaches us - January 2018 is a notable exception to that. 

To @Jns2183 point, more times than not it finds ways not to snow than it does for it to snow. We've done remarkably well this winter for a Nina but there have still been several misses that models were showing snow for our area that either didn't come to fruition or we ended up with far less than thought. 

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26 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

There seems to be a sentiment in here that any model run that shows a hit will definitely change for the negative while any run that shows a miss is a lock; while the only truth this winter seems the models will change wildly outside even 24 hours at times.


.

Agreed, and some of them are sitting in the catbird seat for snow....you know... the snow they were not getting 3 days before they got it.

Yeah....that snow. 

It boggles the mind....well my tiny one anyway.

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52 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

There seems to be a sentiment in here that any model run that shows a hit will definitely change for the negative while any run that shows a miss is a lock; while the only truth this winter seems the models will change wildly outside even 24 hours at times.


.

RIGHT ON!

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33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

To @Jns2183 point, more times than not it finds ways not to snow than it does for it to snow. We've done remarkably well this winter for a Nina but there have still been several misses that models were showing snow for our area that either didn't come to fruition or we ended up with far less than thought. 

First part is painful truth.  For those that follow tellies/base state, we are kickin beyond coverage for what shoulda/coulda been a ratter.

But for that second part, most of those snows didnt go poof....they went north or east...and thats the truth.  lol

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Some other short range model guidance data to consider.

18z NBM (National Blend of Models). Only goes to 36hr on WB and is still mid event at the end:

nbm-conus-pennsylvania-total_snow_10to1-3023200-1.thumb.png.a627ba5bd26204a5bd10e69c503ee8e6.pngnbm-conus-pennsylvania-refc-3023200.thumb.png.4427aff1804a39b3d1bb133a1bd583b3.png

 

18z WPC guidance 50th percentile 24hr snowfall, aka CTP's current expected snowfall:

wpc-statecollege-wpc_snow_24hr_50pctl-3066400.thumb.png.c86b18dc4975028146eaaee3d57dec6d.pngStormTotalSnowWeb-1.thumb.png.2e910956d35c964177699ddec85ea68a.png

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28 minutes ago, canderson said:

Paducah is no stranger to epic ice storms. 

They sure aren't. My uncle lives there and he went through the 2009 ice storm. This pic isn't his but he lived a couple miles from the NWS there at the time and this was taken from the office.

1079395749_ScreenShot2021-02-10at12_09_27AM.png.7771b8bc9e072d2ba3f4b1d5206aaf6b.png

Pic Source: https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/Top10Events/2009/Ice Storm Jan 26-28 2009.pdf

 

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP put this out tonight...

Yea I saw that a bit ago, it's a pretty bullish forecast dependent on that second surge Thurs night/Friday. This first wave tomorrow night has been showing back up better on guidance well into PA the last couple runs while second wave has seemed to stay more below the mason-dixon. Still like bottom two tiers of PA counties having a solid advisory type snow for tomorrow night's wave. 

Even if Friday misses, that next potential event is already almost in NAM range on Sunday and then looking like something Tuesday (0z GFS was big for that one). 

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Yes, wave #1 tomorrow night into Thursday morning looked good on most models tonight for a solid Advisory event for the southern half of PA.

The next couple of events have also improved on the models tonight. The 0z GFS that I posted last page looked decent for Saturday night. Then it brought the good storm on Tuesday.

More good news, the 0z Canadian agreed with the GFS for the Saturday night & Tuesday snowstorm chances for CTP.

 

8D86BE7D-CD8C-4B31-B82F-F58225149900.png

601F15C9-D7C9-4F5F-B5C5-3BC47F56299E.png

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Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
433 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

PAZ027-028-056-057-059-063>066-110015-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.210211T0200Z-210211T1300Z/
Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Newport,
Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York,
and Lancaster
433 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches,
  with the greatest amounts near and to the south of the
  Interstate 81 corridor.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.
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