Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Maybe its my years in Florida but water temp under 75 is BRRRRR.  LOL

It's usually in the upper 60s to near 70 at Hatteras in early June. I find it refreshing.  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's usually in the upper 60s to near 70 at Hatteras in early June. I find it refreshing.  

You would like Florida Spring swimming. Its always around 72 regardless of air temp.  And its clear so no surprise Gator attacks. 

[Bubbler86]

Well that is a drastic difference.  like @paweather mentioned, the SE Ridge is the differentiator.  CMC vs. EC

 

 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Well that is a drastic difference.  like @paweather mentioned, the SE Ridge is the differentiator.  CMC vs. EC

 

 

Hate to be against the King. LOL. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, paweather said:

Hate to be against the King. LOL. 

Hmm, not this year.  The King has taken some time off from pattern recognition.  12Z EPS has a lot of members with a much different result than the OP. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hmm, not this year.  The King has taken some time off from pattern recognition.  12Z EPS has a lot of members with a much different result than the OP. 

Yeah I know, definitely not King this year especially in Winter when it was almost guaranteed in the past.  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Yeah I know, definitely not King this year especially in Winter when it was almost guaranteed in the past.  

The CMC has the ridge much farther East than the Op Euro while the EPS Blend has it sort of in between as expected I guess.

[TheDreamTraveler]

it looks like the temps might break some record highs potentially. thursday here it'll be 73 which breaks the record high of 70 in 2009. should feel nice if you like the warmth lol

[Bubbler86]

32 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

it looks like the temps might break some record highs potentially. thursday here it'll be 73 which breaks the record high of 70 in 2009. should feel nice if you like the warmth lol

Boy, if it gets to 73 at MDT this week the winter punters will be out in full force!  

[Bubbler86]

Interesting post on the MA LR thread from PSU.  Maybe I am just noticing it more but it does seem like more people are punting early this year.  PSU suggests it is related to the stinker of a winter most of the coastal plain had, especially with busted model/digital snow.   I can see that but if I were a real snow lover I would still want snow even if late.  I do think there has been a trend of throwing March away the last few years...sun angle, etc...but this year it is coming out more than usual.  Maybe Covid fatigue and people wanting to get out (different point but we better hope the variants does not make the fatigue get worse)?  The first half of March is arguably a better snow period than the first half of December so the people throwing the month away are probably doing it for personal reasons vs. scientific.  I saw one poster say its possible Baltimore may not hit freezing again this season?   Wow...

 

 

[2001kx]

Updated pic of the snowcover..Not sure if it will last the week.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember 80s near Baltimore at my college late March or early April in 94' or 95 ' and 2-3" snow 2-3 days later . Pretty crazy . April 9th 96' we got 5 inches along the M/D line 

Yea, I am not saying the punters should be punting just reading the room.  Ha.

[Blizzard of 93]

59 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Interesting post on the MA LR thread from PSU.  Maybe I am just noticing it more but it does seem like more people are punting early this year.  PSU suggests it is related to the stinker of a winter most of the coastal plain had, especially with busted model/digital snow.   I can see that but if I were a real snow lover I would still want snow even if late.  I do think there has been a trend of throwing March away the last few years...sun angle, etc...but this year it is coming out more than usual.  Maybe Covid fatigue and people wanting to get out (different point but we better hope the variants does not make the fatigue get worse)?  The first half of March is arguably a better snow period than the first half of December so the people throwing the month away are probably doing it for personal reasons vs. scientific.  I saw one poster say its possible Baltimore may not hit freezing again this season?   Wow...

 

 

Just a few years ago in 2017 and 2018, we had our largest snow events of the season during the last 2 weeks of March. Both of these events delivered over a foot of snow to the Harrisburg area. 

We are already above normal snow for the season in our region this year, but I certainly wouldn’t mind adding some stat padding snows in the next few weeks!

It is not time to punt! 

I want at least 1 more snow train ride!

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember 80 degree temps near Baltimore at my college late March or early April in 94' or 95 ' and 2-3" snow 2-3 days later . Pretty crazy . April 9th 96' we got 5 inches along the M/D line 

Last year we had good snow showers in early May!

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Interesting post on the MA LR thread from PSU.  Maybe I am just noticing it more but it does seem like more people are punting early this year.  PSU suggests it is related to the stinker of a winter most of the coastal plain had, especially with busted model/digital snow.   I can see that but if I were a real snow lover I would still want snow even if late.  I do think there has been a trend of throwing March away the last few years...sun angle, etc...but this year it is coming out more than usual.  Maybe Covid fatigue and people wanting to get out (different point but we better hope the variants does not make the fatigue get worse)?  The first half of March is arguably a better snow period than the first half of December so the people throwing the month away are probably doing it for personal reasons vs. scientific.  I saw one poster say its possible Baltimore may not hit freezing again this season?   Wow...

 

 

Great post.

I think Covid fatigue is real and absolutely contributes to the punting. I never punt March, and won't this year either but I'll be honest and say that I am really excited about the weather for the rest of the week. Thing is  - I will be just as happy to welcome back winter weather if and when it comes. 

At any rate - there has been doom and gloom for a year now, and a string of sunny, warm days will do the soul some good. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Yep May 9th . SS all day 

Also April 14th 2014 Carroll county got 3-6" . 

I was over your way today.  I ran a piece of equipment to Finch in Westminster and cut up 97 to get home so I could get some chicken from Royal Farms.  I thought I was your truck at the Silver Run Liquors.  

[Blizzard of 93]

Harrisburg averages over 5 inches of snow in March and a few tenths in April.

We still have a solid month in which we could score measurable snow!

[Cashtown_Coop]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gotta love me some Royal  farms chicken 

I have 5,000 points on my rofo card enough for a truck full of breasts and thighs lol

It’s good but expensive.  I got 8 tenders and it was $14

(Not all for me )

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Great post.

I think Covid fatigue is real and absolutely contributes to the punting. I never punt March, and won't this year either but I'll be honest and say that I am really excited about the weather for the rest of the week. Thing is  - I will be just as happy to welcome back winter weather if and when it comes. 

At any rate - there has been doom and gloom for a year now, and a string of sunny, warm days will do the soul some good. 

It will be interesting to see what this time has done to us as to the future.  RE: less eating out?  Exploring parks more, etc...

[Bubbler86]

Well, the GFS trended toward the CMC and lessened the S/E ridge influence with bringing the deepest cold over us the weekend after next.   Euro did not budge much.  CMC pulled away from it being cold early next week but still brings the goods mid week and beyond.  Overall a good night for the coldinista's.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

14 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

They've been out in the mid Atlantic forum  since February lol

I remember 80 degree temps near Baltimore at my college late March or early April in 94' or 95 ' and 2-3" snow 2-3 days later . Pretty crazy . April 9th 96' we got 5 inches along the M/D line 

 

13 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep May 9th . SS all day 

Also April 14th 2014 Carroll county got 3-6" . 

Wow that 5" total on April 9, 1996 along the Mason-Dixon is mighty impressive.  That's prior to my personal record keeping.  I have most recently observed April snow on April 1, 2018 with 2.1", while MDT set a daily snowfall record of 3.9".  On April 17, 2018, I had heavy flurries but it couldn't lay and MDT set a record Trace snowfall.  Also saw 1" on April 9, 2016 (believe this was the first April snow since 2003) when it snowed all morning but had a hard time accumulating, although some parts of Dauphin and Lebanon Counties got 4-8".  There was a major snowstorm around April 22-23, 2012 across northern/western PA that was highly elevation-dependent, with valleys getting virtually nothing and ridgetops 8+ (Laurel Summit got 24").

May 9th last year I had SS but no accumulation; however, MDT set record snowfalls of a Trace on back-to-back days along with setting its all-time low temp record for the month of May at 30 degrees.  On May 14, 2013, I had a buddy claim it snowed for five minutes while he was fishing at a lake right by my house, for whatever that's worth ha.  The latest I have ever personally witnessed snow in PA was leaving Bradford on May 15, 2016, where it was coming down heavy.  My one buddy has a family cabin on top of a mountain near the Tioga/Potter line and the old timers talk about seeing snow there in June/July back in the day.  Anyway, enough of personal story time haha.

[TheDreamTraveler]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Wow that 5" total on April 9, 1996 along the Mason-Dixon is mighty impressive.  That's prior to my personal record keeping.  I have most recently observed April snow on April 1, 2018 with 2.1", while MDT set a daily snowfall record of 3.9".  On April 17, 2018, I had heavy flurries but it couldn't lay and MDT set a record Trace snowfall.  Also saw 1" on April 9, 2016 (believe this was the first April snow since 2003) when it snowed all morning but had a hard time accumulating, although some parts of Dauphin and Lebanon Counties got 4-8".  There was a major snowstorm around April 22-23, 2012 across northern/western PA that was highly elevation-dependent, with valleys getting virtually nothing and ridgetops 8+ (Laurel Summit got 24").

May 9th last year I had SS but no accumulation; however, MDT set record snowfalls of a Trace on back-to-back days along with setting its all-time low temp record for the month of May at 30 degrees.  On May 14, 2013, I had a buddy claim it snowed for five minutes while he was fishing at a lake right by my house, for whatever that's worth ha.  The latest I have ever personally witnessed snow in PA was leaving Bradford on May 15, 2016, where it was coming down heavy.  My one buddy has a family cabin on top of a mountain near the Tioga/Potter line and the old timers talk about seeing snow there in June/July back in the day.  Anyway, enough of personal story time haha.

That snow squall in may last year was absolutely crazy. I had to go out to drive and drove into whiteout conditions. The mountains were almost impossible to see. It was the most surreal thing to see in may and I doubt I'll ever forget it

[Bubbler86]

58 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Wow that 5" total on April 9, 1996 along the Mason-Dixon is mighty impressive.  That's prior to my personal record keeping.  I have most recently observed April snow on April 1, 2018 with 2.1", while MDT set a daily snowfall record of 3.9".  On April 17, 2018, I had heavy flurries but it couldn't lay and MDT set a record Trace snowfall.  Also saw 1" on April 9, 2016 (believe this was the first April snow since 2003) when it snowed all morning but had a hard time accumulating, although some parts of Dauphin and Lebanon Counties got 4-8".  There was a major snowstorm around April 22-23, 2012 across northern/western PA that was highly elevation-dependent, with valleys getting virtually nothing and ridgetops 8+ (Laurel Summit got 24").

May 9th last year I had SS but no accumulation; however, MDT set record snowfalls of a Trace on back-to-back days along with setting its all-time low temp record for the month of May at 30 degrees.  On May 14, 2013, I had a buddy claim it snowed for five minutes while he was fishing at a lake right by my house, for whatever that's worth ha.  The latest I have ever personally witnessed snow in PA was leaving Bradford on May 15, 2016, where it was coming down heavy.  My one buddy has a family cabin on top of a mountain near the Tioga/Potter line and the old timers talk about seeing snow there in June/July back in the day.  Anyway, enough of personal story time haha.

There were some reports of it snowing in August in York County....in the late 1940's.  Will try to dig those up some time.  People will argue it was hail or possibly ash. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There were some reports of it snowing in August in York County....in the late 1940's.  Will try to dig those up some time.  People will argue it was hail or possibly ash. 

Funny you bring that up, as I was just thinking about those old-time reports.  The only month in which Harrisburg has never recorded snowfall is September.  There were two occasions with a Trace amount in August -- 8/13/93 and 8/28/34.  There are a number of Trace reports for the months of May, June and July (even a .1" from July 1930 and a .2" in June of 1938), mostly from the 1920s through the 1950s.  I often wonder about the record keeping and standards that were in place back then but perhaps that is just my recency bias showing.  One can't help but wonder though if some of those old summer reports from Harrisburg weren't just graupel, hail, etc. that were mistakenly reported as snow.  It's just sooooooo hard to envision snow falling in Harrisburg in July ha.

[TimB]

15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Funny you bring that up, as I was just thinking about those old-time reports.  The only month in which Harrisburg has never recorded snowfall is September.  There were two occasions with a Trace amount in August -- 8/13/93 and 8/28/34.  There are a number of Trace reports for the months of May, June and July (even a .1" from July 1930 and a .2" in June of 1938), mostly from the 1920s through the 1950s.  I often wonder about the record keeping and standards that were in place back then but perhaps that is just my recency bias showing.  One can't help but wonder though if some of those old summer reports from Harrisburg weren't just graupel, hail, etc. that were mistakenly reported as snow.  It's just sooooooo hard to envision snow falling in Harrisburg in July ha.

Definitely hail on the 1993 occasion. High of 86, low of 65 with 1.86” of rain.

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Funny you bring that up, as I was just thinking about those old-time reports.  The only month in which Harrisburg has never recorded snowfall is September.  There were two occasions with a Trace amount in August -- 8/13/93 and 8/28/34.  There are a number of Trace reports for the months of May, June and July (even a .1" from July 1930 and a .2" in June of 1938), mostly from the 1920s through the 1950s.  I often wonder about the record keeping and standards that were in place back then but perhaps that is just my recency bias showing.  One can't help but wonder though if some of those old summer reports from Harrisburg weren't just graupel, hail, etc. that were mistakenly reported as snow.  It's just sooooooo hard to envision snow falling in Harrisburg in July ha.

I would love to see that .1" from July 1930.  It was surely .4" per Blizz.  I would say that most of those are graupel or some other frozen entity.  In theory I can see it raining hard enough any month and having a flake or two reach the ground due to speed of descent if its really cold upstairs.  

[Bubbler86]

Both the 12Z Nam and Icon (in previous runs as well) have a sneaky freeze tonight for some.   Icon also has some MA snow next week with some serious back door cold.  Highs in the low to mid 30's   (Edit-GFS as well.  Get your snow tracking pants back on.  @paweather's hiatus lasted less than 24 hours)

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

16 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Definitely hail on the 1993 occasion. High of 86, low of 65 with 1.86” of rain.

So then the question becomes, are you allowed to record hail as snowfall??  I mean, I know it's frozen but I wouldn't think so, and then isn't that clear evidence of a discrepancy in the record keeping?  When you search the databases the variable field is clearly listed as "snowfall".  Perhaps some of the official observers on the site could answer.  Thanks.

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

So then the question becomes, are you allowed to record hail as snowfall??  I mean, I know it's frozen but I wouldn't think so, and then isn't that clear evidence of a discrepancy in the record keeping?  When you search the databases the variable field is clearly listed as "snowfall".  Perhaps some of the official observers on the site could answer.  Thanks.

We all know the difference in the formation of sleet vs. hail but if the rule is that sleet can be recorded as snow then a valid argument can be made for hail.  Take a fall or spring ice pellet.  Are we sending up balloons to make sure the ball of ice was formed in the clouds or on the way down?  :-).  With that said it has hailed a lot more than those occurrences you referenced so I do not think that is the final answer.

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

We all know the difference in the formation of sleet vs. hail but if the rule is that sleet can be recorded as snow then a valid argument can be made for hail.  Take a fall or spring ice pellet.  Are we sending up balloons to make sure the ball of ice was formed in the clouds or on the way down?  :-).  With that said it has hailed a lot more than those occurrences you referenced so I do not think that is the final answer.

 

Fair point but hail is so clearly a convective phenomenon associated with strong updrafts in warm season thunderstorms, one would think observers would be taught to differentiate.  As you say though, they are both ice haha.  And yes, if hail were able to be counted then we'd expect to see many more days during the warm season with Trace amounts listed but we don't sooooooo.........great discussion Bubbler, thanks for entertaining my tangent on this random Tuesday morning ha.  Would love to hear other's thoughts.