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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

I think yes but I’m a moron. 

I know i will be called a debbie downer, but there have been a lot of signals for this to have huge bust potential. I think a lot of people are underestimating that 1 inch of QPF spread out over 36 hours when temps are at least somewhat marginal could lead to huge bust issues.

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Just now, pawatch said:

A lot more dry slotting showing on the radar this morning than I thought there would be.

Yep, seeing that out our way. We have a few decent bands but it is mainly a disorganized mess.

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Just now, paweather said:

So would you discount the EURO? 

I think as @pawatch just said a lot of dry air overrunning part don’t look great. Big tick East on all models. I didn’t believe the nam at first but now has a lot of support. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

So would you discount the EURO? And I should say why? Outside of one run the EURP has been the most consistent model for this storm. 

I would say look at what is going on right now and the radar. I know the coastal could really impact you guys later, but the NAM pretty accurately showed what is going on right now.

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44 minutes ago, canderson said:

Methinks your flight gets cancelled. 

It might. Even the delay wiped me out of my Chicago connection, and who knows how flights nationwide will be affected. It's like a domino effect once the cancellations and delays get more frequent.

The snow stopped for the moment, but it's probably going to be intermittent at first.

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

I would say look at what is going on right now and the radar. I know the coastal could really impact you guys later, but the NAM pretty accurately showed what is going on right now.

I'll take my chances on the EURO and enjoy whatever I get. 

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7 minutes ago, pawatch said:

A lot more dry slotting showing on the radar this morning than I thought there would be.

The good snow today is not supposed to be until later this afternoon & evening.

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I'm just saying, if this one fizzles out, it's gonna be hard to believe the guidance for the remainder of the season unless there's some massive change in the set up or we're being shown a triple phaser or something.

 

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10 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

I would not it seems most models have trended this way. I think now Tom Russel map was right. Big lean East and north with the heaviest. Kind of unreal two for two this year showing big amounts then as the storm is starting fades. Still happy with what we get but think more in the 4 to 8 range around Harrisburg, Lancaster, York .

No models except for the trash NAM are showing this....the storm is just starting.

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The “shift”, if it is even reality on some models takes the heaviest snow to the east, BUT.... the Susquehanna Valley & points west STILL get near a foot of snow or more.

Most of us in here are NOT near Pittsburgh!!!!

Here are the 12z RGEM &

ICON( only available in 10-1 ratio)

9A102265-B869-4369-8C67-30BD938518AB.png

C54C72F4-DE6E-49F5-A9A3-2CA601890E6E.png

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The “shift”, if it is even reality on some models takes the heaviest snow to the east, BUT.... the Susquehanna Valley & points west STILL get near a foot of snow or more.

Most of us in here are NOT near Pittsburgh!!!!

Here are the 12z RGEM &

ICON( only available in 10-1 ratio)

9A102265-B869-4369-8C67-30BD938518AB.png

C54C72F4-DE6E-49F5-A9A3-2CA601890E6E.png

I certainly get that, but 10 inches over 36 hours is a lot different than 10 inches over a 12-18 hour period like most storms we get. That is my point....that the final totals look ok but you are going to have issues with accumulations if you have such low rates for a long duration of the storm.

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Don’t they have a Pittsburgh thread on here?

Asking for a friend....

I mean, we do but it is fairly quiet compared to this one and we are kind of stuck in geographical no man's land.

I'm not trying to be a PIA, but just pointing out the issues with this system.

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Just now, KPITSnow said:

In any case, we will see how it plays out. You guys are in a much better position than those of us in WPA.

It's all good, Miller B's are Miller B's nothing is set in stone until real time plays out. It just depends on how long the "tuck" of the low stays in place for us. Like the GFS it pulls out after 30. It will be interesting on the CMC and EURO to see if they will change. 

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

I mean, we do but it is fairly quiet compared to this one and we are kind of stuck in geographical no man's land.

I'm not trying to be a PIA, but just pointing out the issues with this system.

All good, good luck to you out there!

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS is a bit better tucked than other 12Z Guidance

 

 

Para not so much but still a decent snow in Northern and Central LSV.  Just not to the level of the GFS totals. 

 

image.png.e041707defe495e04496d3c04461c1c1.png

 

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z GFS followed the same theme and has jackpot in eastern PA, BUT, most of the Susquehanna Valley STILL ends up with over 16 inches of snow this run.

 

66A07241-80CD-4274-87AD-E22A760A8587.png

it smooths out the low area below bubbler and I.  12"+ 20 miles south of mason dixon basiclly the whole state east of Garrett

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It will all depend on where the best banding sets up with the CCB tomorrow.

Often times heavier precip gets pushed further to the west in this set up as there is usually a second max zone in the banding.

I like the position of the low on the GFS

C34611CE-8067-4905-A843-E8B71EFF7E07.png

BC5888DF-E022-49FB-B8E5-EADADE5E39CC.png

8FABA3B0-E02B-4239-B62B-84AEB0575CA1.png

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21 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I'm just saying, if this one fizzles out, it's gonna be hard to believe the guidance for the remainder of the season unless there's some massive change in the set up or we're being shown a triple phaser or something.

 

I think we all got jacked up by last night’s  good runs but in back of my mind I knew we were still 24 hrs from the main show. 
Nit too worried and am stickin w my 10-14 I went with at bed time last evening. 
I’ll go down w the ship. Nbd. It’s snowing.
 

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