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ChescoWx

January 25-26, 2021 Winter Event Discussion

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For your entertainment....with 6z data the WXSIM has quite the wintry week in store - snow arriving by 930pm on Monday night - becoming briefly moderate around the 1am to 3am time frame then continuing lightly for much of the day on Tuesday as a mix of snow and sleet - total snow/IP accumulation by Wed AM about 2". Then it shows off and on mixed precip for Wed before heavy snow begins on Thursday around 7AM with falling temps through the day before snow tapers off by 10pm....but not before 14" to 18" of snow has fallen.

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Yeah, I'm seeing 1-3" then sleet/freezing rain maybe switching back to snow on Tuesday but nothing heavy. These snow to sleet/mix precip events usually disappoint as far as snow totals. The mix/changeover usually happens quicker than expected so snow totals are lower. It's something but not looking forward to hearing the first dreaded sound of "pings"...

27F/windy

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Yeah that's my thinking atm...an inch or so before we changeover to slop. Still, considering how bad these last few winter have been, I'll take it.

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Damn this event has kind of fallen apart the last 24 hours as most of the precip collapses as its reaching the area due to the low transfer. Really now looking like a borderline advisory event for most. Agree with others 1-3" region wide seems to be a good bet. At least it's something...  Still some time for things to trend a bit juicier..

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3 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Looks like 1"-2" on the 18Z NAM -- and that might be generous as I think some of that is sleet.

Yea it was sorta of a disaster. As Iceman noted this is turning into a small nuisance event. Coating to possibly 2 inches.

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Damn this event has kind of fallen apart the last 24 hours as most of the precip collapses as its reaching the area due to the low transfer. Really now looking like a borderline advisory event for most. Agree with others 1-3" region wide seems to be a good bet. At least it's something...  Still some time for things to trend a bit juicier..

Exactly why people shouldn't be locking in the Thursday threat at this time. We've seen some wicked adjustments over the past 6 week's events all within 72 hrs of the event. I mean, the Dec storm had DC in the bullseye. Then us 48 hrs prior, then it ended up hammering Binghamton. We've seen several other systems either fall apart or get nudged one way or the other also. I think the block is wreaking havoc on short term modeling. We'll see. I certainly am not sold on the late week thing yet one way or the other tbh. Lots of potential.

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29 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Looks like 1"-2" on the 18Z NAM -- and that might be generous as I think some of that is sleet.

Yep, lowering my expectations here to 1-2" slop....snow showers and sleet showers, blech!!

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37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep, lowering my expectations here to 1-2" slop....snow showers and sleet showers, blech!!

So much negativity it's double the snow you had the last 6 weeks

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16 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

My point and click says 2-4 but seriously doubt that happens 

You're in Berks so in decent shape. Temps probably won't be a problem but lack of precip may be...

27F

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Exactly why people shouldn't be locking in the Thursday threat at this time. We've seen some wicked adjustments over the past 6 week's events all within 72 hrs of the event. I mean, the Dec storm had DC in the bullseye. Then us 48 hrs prior, then it ended up hammering Binghamton. We've seen several other systems either fall apart or get nudged one way or the other also. I think the block is wreaking havoc on short term modeling. We'll see. I certainly am not sold on the late week thing yet one way or the other tbh. Lots of potential.

I wouldn't be shocked at all of we somehow get through this period with nothing more than a coating... 

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I wouldn't be shocked at all of we somehow get through this period with nothing more than a coating... 

GFS still being consistent with the Thursday storm. We’re just south enough on the 18z run to get some good stuff.

Pretty clear the first storm will just be light snow/mix.

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Latest WXSIM Forecast is only a wee bit different with the 18z model data compared to the 6z data from this AM! This is why I love some folks on here who get fired up with a WXSIM forecast....when it is really only represents a hyper local output for NW Chester County PA... it's a simple regurgitation of a GFS/NAM blend that changes from run to run. I always try to tell folks that models or programs like WXSIM are never a true forecast...only an output of an imperfect numerical model attempting to inform a true weather professional of what 1 or 2 models of the many at a weather professional disposal are as they try to use all available data to make a true forecast for any given site. All of that said....the 18z forecast is not going to be correct.....reality will be something else....could we be NAMMED on the next run or tomorrow at 12z - of course. Key point stay tuned - lots of storms or at leas rumor of storms on the table for the foreseeable future - interesting times ahead - keep the faith!

 

Monday night: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of sleet, rain, and snow after
 midnight. Low 32. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the evening, becoming 6
 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground)
 accumulation expected.

 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A
 chance of a mix of rain, sleet, and snow in the morning, then a chance of rain
 in the afternoon. High 39. Wind east-northeast around 8 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a
 quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected.
 
 Tuesday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A
 chance of rain. Low 35. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the evening,
 becoming north-northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
 Precipitation mostly around a tenth of an inch.
 
 Wednesday: Cloudy. Relatively mild. High 43. Wind north around 4 mph.
 
 Wednesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight.
 A slight chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of a mix of rain and snow
 after midnight. Low 33. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 37. Wind north-northeast
 around 5 mph in the evening, becoming 8 mph, gusting to 17 mph, after midnight.
 Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly
 less than a quarter of an inch. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 
 Thursday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Snow
 likely. Breezy. High 35. Wind chill around 24. Wind north-northeast around 15
 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation
 (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation 1 to 2
 inches.

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1 hour ago, Newman said:

I'm just hoping for 2-3" from this down here in Lanco. Then we hope for the Thursday storm...

You guys should do well out in lanco... Honestly may be the best spot of anyone in the area.

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20f/Dp6 still looks like 1-3"  out here with Freezing rain and drizzle now for most of Tuesday and possibly changing back to snow later in the day. I can do without the Freezing rain part.

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It's comical how this storm just gets worse and worse with each model run. 18z nam is essentially a non event. Some sleet to begin and then that's it. At this rate, it'll just be mostly cloudy with some drizzle. 

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9 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

It's comical how this storm just gets worse and worse with each model run. 18z nam is essentially a non event. Some sleet to begin and then that's it. At this rate, it'll just be mostly cloudy with some drizzle. 

Yea..I am now targeting February and early  March now.

January was a swift kick in the nutz.

recall hearing 2 weeks back that the pattern was great for snow. 

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