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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lows that track right over the apps are very unusual. Not saying it won’t or can’t happen but I’d expect that low that I’ve seen on the ICON and now in the NAM to end up either farther west or east.

Agree but my main point is I think some are using precip type and snow clown maps to judge a run. The h5 and mslp had trended significantly worse since yesterday on the euro. That’s all I care about. I don’t use those clown maps to evaluate a run. Sometimes I will use them to show a trend only if I feel they are indicative of the real trends I see behind them. 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:
We need this. Just one time before the warmup. Post winter depression about to kick in 

It will never verify. Icon just way too cold

Winter is over isn’t it?  I can just feel it.  There will be nothing else.  

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Winter is over isn’t it?  I can just feel it.  There will be nothing else.  

It feels like one of those winters where everyone will give up and then there will be some stupid 6-10 inch slop snow in March just before we hit 70 degrees lol

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Toss the GFS temperatures for later Thursday.    The early morning temps are in the 20s, and winds are light - the GFS is always way too aggressive in weakening the damming in setups like these.    The GFS para is better at retaining the low-level cold air (not great, but better than the ops GFS) and offers a colder and more reasonable solution.

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