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January Long Range Disco Thread

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I mean this sub is in the midst of their worst 1/4/ and If things don’t change soon 5 year stretch in history!!!  We waited literally 10 years for a -AO winter and when we finally get one DC has now totally wasted the first 6 weeks of it!  So I don’t blame anyone for the current attitude. The frustration is kinda understandable. I’m just trying to soldier on and do my thing. 

 

Some indications the NAM state may be changing towards early February.

Granted,  the surface reflection of the SSWE are just now progressing as HM mentioned. 

 

gfs_nh-namindex_20210113.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Here's the Eps mean . I think that's the control^

 

It is. To anybody who doesn’t know (me a few weeks ago), there’s a helpful little identifier after the ECMWF Ens tag. 
 

[M]=Mean

[C]=Control

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Here's the Eps mean . I think that's the control^

Talk about wall to wall confluence.. Batman   Instead of just confluence to the ne ...we got it stretching all the way to the west coast all but lol. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1122400.png

I’m no bowling expert....except on the Wii, but that look would seem to imply that ball is going to hook a bit north then straight down the alley east towards us. Am I right?

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I imagine this is good to know in a long term thread.

The effects of the SSWE can result in both record cold and record warmth as well as Amy mentions.  

Example Spain and the heat in Turkey. 

 

 

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68 pages that has produced nothing. Somebody start the new thread which would be Jan/Feb Long Range Discussion. 
 

Please, somebody. We need to exorcise this demon.

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1 hour ago, Scraff said:

I’m no bowling expert....except on the Wii, but that look would seem to imply that ball is going to hook a bit north then straight down the alley east towards us. Am I right?

That's the way the GFS seems to be playing it.  Of course its in the 40s/50s with rain delivering the 7-10 split.  but yes its coming straight at us. 

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Gfs op seems to think that we will be on the wrong side of the gradient through day 10.

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10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 

That's the way the GFS seems to be playing it.  Of course its in the 40s/50s with rain delivering the 7-10 split.  but yes its coming straight at us. 

 

Looking like both the storm on the 22 nd and the 25 th are rain makers . Heights up in the SE US.  More of the same  

This sucks !  

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10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 

That's the way the GFS seems to be playing it.  Of course its in the 40s/50s with rain delivering the 7-10 split.  but yes its coming straight at us. 

That flat ridge in the GOM isn't helping anyone. 

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Just now, LP08 said:

Gfs op seems to think that we will be on the wrong side of the gradient through day 10.

were always on the wrong side of everything

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The ridge off the west coast through Alaska is too far west.  Trough dumps in the west and we fight the SE ridge even with the favorable NAO and 50/50 low.  

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Looking like both the storm on the 22 nd and the 25 th are rain makers . Heights up in the SE US.  More of the same  

This sucks !  

the storm on the 29th will be ours. If not..feb 3

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Gfs op seems to think that we will be on the wrong side of the gradient through day 10.

if its right at least we don't have to worry we are so close...its not even close..you could drive 100 miles north and still be rain under that look.  Interesting developments today so far. 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

The ridge off the west coast through Alaska is too far west.  Trough dumps in the west and we fight the SE ridge even with the favorable NAO and 50/50 low.  

Too much -PNA I guess.

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our only hope is the models dont really see this stuff clearly until 120-144 hours out. Then it starts looking more favorable. The PD storm in 03 was actually mainly a rain event on the models for a while

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Just now, BristowWx said:

if its right at least we don't have to worry we are so close...its not even close..you could drive 100 miles north and still be rain under that look.  Interesting developments today so far. 

AO negative since December 1 st and we may go the entire month of January without  a significant snowfall . 

 

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Just now, frd said:

AO negative since December 1 st and we may go the entire month of January without  a significant snowfall . 

 

Give me a -AO, -EPO, +PNA and forget the -NAO. We all would be satisfied and freezing. Then I'll take blocking in late winter.

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

our only hope is the models dont really see this stuff clearly until 120-144 hours out. Then it starts looking more favorable. The PD storm in 03 was actually mainly a rain event on the models for a while

Yeah, I wouldn’t get too depressed about that look on the gfs op at 200 hours plus. The features would only need to shift slightly for a significantly different outcome. Not impossible 200 hours out on an op.I’d rather it showed blue... but still.

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15 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Gfs op seems to think that we will be on the wrong side of the gradient through day 10.

 

14 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Looking like both the storm on the 22 nd and the 25 th are rain makers . Heights up in the SE US.  More of the same  

This sucks !  

 

12 minutes ago, LP08 said:

The ridge off the west coast through Alaska is too far west.  Trough dumps in the west and we fight the SE ridge even with the favorable NAO and 50/50 low.  

There is no cold in the pattern initially. The response to the EPO going up will initially be to dump the trough and cold into the west. Think wave dynamics. See saw. If there is no cold in front of that...what’s the response in the east going to be?  I can totally see a ridge popping initially. Could the block fight it off...maybe. But the thing is the block effects things AFTER not before. There is a lag.  Loop the n hemisphere h5 progression on the gfs. The block is just getting into a truly favorable location around day  7. By then the damage is done. The trough is dumping west and the ridge is going up because the block wasn’t there a few days earlier to effect the flow yet!  If there was more cold in front and the blocking was already established we would see a more broad elongated trough but without..the trough/ridge makes sense. Now..again the blocking could suppress the track enough. I’m not tossing the day 6-10 period. But this was why I said yesterday AFTER that is when I think the progression favors us more.  Once the Rex block retrogrades west of Greenland it will start to exert itself on the flow. The cold out west will bleed east under the block. That trough will be forced to spread and broaden. And frankly it’s an odd combo that has huge upside. That block location in a different pac would actually be way too suppressive. That’s a crazy southwest NAO Rex block with big 50/50 vortex signature and a displaced TPV under it.  That could just be super cold/dry. But the western trough will try to cut storms west of us. But at some point as more cold bleeds east and the block retrogrades a “oh no you dont” wall will go up and a storm coming from the SW with gulf moisture trying to cut will be blocked and forced under. And those our “fun”. That’s still how I see this potentially playing out. But the balance between cold west/east and block location won’t be perfect for that until closer to the end of January according to the current progression and timing. 

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That's a nice signal on the 12z EPS, carrying over from 0z EPS.  
How did that good signal work out?

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18z GFS says get ready for some boring ass weather for the next 8-9 days.  Bone dry.
Yep

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WB 18Z GEFS through Day 14 says patience will be needed...
1EFAB765-AE61-4327-9925-3DA618CD00D6.thumb.png.62dee2253a490a949b5892aea74a3ca2.png
Patience expired but gfs nailed it

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The GEFS looks pretty freakin cold at the end of the run.  Incoming vodka it appears

It was more like stale milk

 

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The gfs has no storm. Euro will lose again because when it’s the only model with snow....were doomed


.
Lol

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
On 1/5/2021 at 7:29 PM, BristowWx said:
The GEFS looks pretty freakin cold at the end of the run.  Incoming vodka it appears

It was more like stake milk

I’ve never hated myself more than right now

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