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Holston_River_Rambler

January 7 - 8 ULL potential

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

RGEM seems to agree and like MRX's discussion....unless you are in Sullivan county, that is ;)   

Looks like it favors Dan too

 

Looks like the 12z.  I think 18z lost its mojo, except for the mountains and western NC.

Biggest lollipops are in Grundy County, Scott and Campbell Counties.  Outside of the mountains there's a bunch of less than 1/2" amounts scattered across Tennessee

It does show a couple of inches in Chattanooga, so there's that!

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Looking at the animation, it appears the explosive precip never makes it back over the mountains like on previous model runs.  Starts in western NC and pivots there before pulling away to the east.  

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14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

That gif was too low a resolution, BLERG:

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

I am right smack in the middle of Sullivan county..crazy the models all over the place on this one.

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JKL put out a SPS saying 1-2 inches in their Tennessee and Virginia border counties possible. 

If I can get 2 inches I'll be very happy.  Hoping for more but skittish due to being in or near the non-Smokies bullseye so often. Heck, my area and Scott County are the only areas over an inch on the hi-res 18z GFS.  

Christmas worked, if this one does it will begin to restore faith in modeling. 

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I still can't pull the trigger on a big Dog for my area as the RGEM has me a bit concerned as it has been money this season here. However, big Dog trigger pulled for Smokies.

     This system may do something akin to the Feb. 15 2005 storm. Temps were marginal and there was a sharp cutoff on the nnw quadrant. Lee County ranged from a trace northern section  (Keokee) to 5 Jonesville to 8 -10" just south of there across the southern half of County bordering Tenn. to Stickleyville bordering Scott county, va.  I'm sure John can detail that one. Interesting one 4 sure.

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For what its worth the 3km and RAP are super close together. Just need the RGEM to hop on board and we have the trifecta of high res models on our side.

The RGEM isn't my favorite model. But it does do well at times. 

NAMNSTMA_prec_kuchsnow_054.png.046436cfc3868a793e4201a937c3c43b.png2098202614_RAPMA_prec_kuchsnow_051(1).png.e49b5dfa9529a438299cfdc863f34184.png

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I dont typically make these posts but when is the timing of this supposed to start?  Wife and her sis is in Gatlinburg till Friday and don't want them getting stuck if it comes to fruition 

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1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said:

I dont typically make these posts but when is the timing of this supposed to start?  Wife and her sis is in Gatlinburg till Friday and don't want them getting stuck if it comes to fruition 

Overnight Thursday into Friday AM 

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2 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

I dont typically make these posts but when is the timing of this supposed to start?  Wife and her sis is in Gatlinburg till Friday and don't want them getting stuck if it comes to fruition 

M4vtfBj.jpg

  • Haha 1

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0z NAM is pretty similar to the 18z RGEM. At this point models are almost useless to watch run to run.  Small track wobbles will happen each run and each time someone will get more or less vs the prior run. 

General confidence that it will snow is high at elevation, moderate in the eastern valley and low moderate in the mid valley towards Nashville.  

How much and exactly where will be purely nowcast. 

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Not sure if you all have seen it, but MRX has released some graphics on FB just now.

They look identical to the euro imo.


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